Here are projected scores for tonight’s DFS pitchers – July 19, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- King of the Hill – Ryu (LAD)
- My Value Pick today is Stroman (TOR) at home versus the Tigers
- Righty SP at home facing Detroit have averaged
- 33.9 FanDuel ppg (2nd Highest in MLB – average SP is 26.2 ppg)
- 18.7 DraftKings ppg (2nd Highest in MLB – average SP is 13.5 ppg)
- Detroit on the road vs. RHP have a:
- 0.290 wOBA (4th worst in MLB)
- 0.168 ISO (11th worst in MLB)
- 27.2 K% (2nd worst in MLB)
- Righty SP at home facing Detroit have averaged
- Stackables (in order of my preference): Dodgers, Angels & Twins
- Followers (**) None.
- Small sample size alert! The following pitchers have each faced less than 100 batters this season:
- McKay (TBR)
- Gallen (MIA)
DFS Pitchers – July 19, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD | vs MIA | $10,500 | 116 | 42.42 | $11,000 | 119 | 23.88 |
| Jacob deGrom NYM | @ SFG | $10,600 | 111 | 38.13 | $10,600 | 114 | 21.49 |
| Justin Verlander HOU | vs TEX | $10,700 | 103 | 36.55 | $11,400 | 103 | 20.38 |
| Marcus Stroman TOR | vs DET | $6,800 | 112 | 36.30 | $9,000 | 115 | 20.03 |
| Brendan McKay TBR | vs CHW | $8,000 | 113 | 35.17 | $8,700 | 114 | 19.98 |
| Shane Bieber CLE | vs KCR | $10,800 | 105 | 35.41 | $10,400 | 106 | 19.68 |
| David Price BOS | @ BAL | $9,500 | 107 | 33.18 | $9,300 | 108 | 17.99 |
| J.A. Happ NYY | vs COL | $7,300 | 104 | 31.98 | $6,400 | 105 | 17.42 |
| Patrick Corbin WSN | @ ATL | $11,000 | 99 | 30.93 | $10,800 | 99 | 16.47 |
| Adam Wainwright STL | @ CIN | $8,500 | 102 | 29.41 | $8,200 | 103 | 15.58 |
| Tyler Mahle CIN | vs STL | $6,200 | 103 | 28.59 | $6,000 | 104 | 15.57 |
| Jordan Lyles PIT | vs PHI | $6,100 | 103 | 28.35 | $5,600 | 104 | 14.76 |
| Mike Minor TEX | @ HOU | $9,100 | 93 | 27.41 | $9,900 | 90 | 13.89 |
| Taylor Clarke ARI | vs MIL | $6,000 | 100 | 26.87 | $5,200 | 100 | 14.01 |
| Jake Odorizzi MIN | vs OAK | $8,300 | 96 | 26.43 | $8,400 | 96 | 14.14 |
| Tyler Beede SFG | vs NYM | $6,900 | 103 | 27.26 | $6,200 | 102 | 13.71 |
| Jordan Zimmermann DET | @ TOR | $5,600 | 101 | 25.79 | $4,600 | 103 | 13.90 |
| Reynaldo Lopez CHW | @ TBR | $6,600 | 101 | 25.95 | $5,800 | 101 | 13.16 |
| Jaime Barria LAA | @ SEA | $6,100 | 103 | 25.20 | $7,600 | 103 | 13.06 |
| Julio Teheran ATL | vs WSN | $8,200 | 98 | 24.41 | $6,400 | 97 | 12.27 |
| John Means BAL | vs BOS | $8,100 | 96 | 23.19 | $6,800 | 95 | 12.19 |
| Jhoulys Chacin MIL | @ ARI | $6,700 | 99 | 23.75 | $5,500 | 98 | 11.84 |
| Jake Arrieta PHI | @ PIT | $7,200 | 97 | 23.11 | $6,600 | 96 | 11.07 |
| Kyle Freeland COL | @ NYY | $5,500 | 96 | 22.65 | $4,900 | 95 | 11.07 |
| Mike Leake SEA | vs LAA | $7,800 | 93 | 22.05 | $7,000 | 91 | 10.65 |
| Chris Bassitt OAK | @ MIN | $7,100 | 91 | 20.80 | $8,000 | 89 | 10.07 |
| Mike Montgomery KCR | @ CLE | $5,800 | 98 | 19.57 | $5,000 | 98 | 9.85 |
| Zac Gallen MIA | @ LAD | $7,000 | 91 | 20.21 | $7,300 | 89 | 9.34 |
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list and where the Matchup Rating is below 90. While not always the case, typically when a pitcher scores a low total (perhaps even negative) that means they are probably getting lit up by the opposing lineup.
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