Here are projected scores for tonight’s DFS pitchers – July 18, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- King of the Hill – Bauer (CLE)
- My Value Pick today is Syndergaard (NYM) on the road versus the Giants
- Righty SP facing the Giants in San Fran have averaged
- 30.9 FanDuel ppg (3rd Highest in MLB – average SP is 26.2 ppg)
- 17.2 DraftKings ppg (3rd Highest in MLB – average SP is 13.5 ppg)
- San Francisco at home vs. RHP have a:
- 0.266 wOBA (Worst in MLB)
- 0.127 ISO (2nd worst in MLB)
- 24.8 K% (7th worst in MLB)
- Righty SP facing the Giants in San Fran have averaged
- Stackables (in order of my preference): Astros, Rays & Twins
- Followers (**) Reports are that Cortes (NYY) will follow Green (NYY) tonight. Regardless, Cortes isn’t available on DraftKings (Green is, though) and the Rays @ Yankees game isn’t on the FanDuel main slate.
- Small sample size alert! The following pitchers have each faced less than 100 batters this season:
- None!
DFS Pitchers – July 18, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Trevor Bauer CLE | vs DET | $10,800 | 111 | 39.51 | $11,000 | 113 | 22.12 |
| Noah Syndergaard NYM | @ SFG | $9,200 | 109 | 33.29 | $9,200 | 111 | 18.52 |
| Matthew Boyd DET | @ CLE | $9,800 | 103 | 31.97 | $9,600 | 103 | 17.20 |
| Madison Bumgarner SFG | vs NYM | $9,000 | 104 | 32.67 | $9,000 | 104 | 16.69 |
| Stephen Strasburg WSN | @ ATL | $10,600 | 102 | 31.49 | $10,500 | 101 | 16.45 |
| Charlie Morton TBR | @ NYY | $11,000 | 98 | 30.10 | $10,200 | 97 | 15.94 |
| Tanner Roark CIN | vs STL | $7,500 | 103 | 29.07 | $7,500 | 104 | 15.84 |
| Merrill Kelly ARI | vs MIL | $6,900 | 102 | 29.07 | $6,000 | 102 | 15.22 |
| Dakota Hudson STL | @ CIN | $8,000 | 103 | 28.03 | $5,800 | 104 | 14.59 |
| Zach Davies MIL | @ ARI | $6,700 | 99 | 25.29 | $5,300 | 99 | 12.83 |
| Wade Miley HOU | @ LAA | $7,700 | 93 | 25.60 | $8,200 | 91 | 12.60 |
| Julio Teheran ATL | vs WSN | $8,200 | 99 | 25.15 | $6,400 | 98 | 12.78 |
| Kyle Gibson MIN | vs OAK | $7,200 | 95 | 24.38 | $6,800 | 94 | 12.67 |
| Mike Fiers OAK | @ MIN | $8,400 | 91 | 19.36 | $7,000 | 88 | 9.25 |
| ** Nestor Cortes NYY | vs TBR | – | 98 | 20.36 | – | 98 | 9.97 |
| Matt Harvey LAA | vs HOU | $5,800 | 88 | 17.13 | $4,800 | 85 | 7.65 |
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list and where the Matchup Rating is below 90. While not always the case, typically when a pitcher scores a low total (perhaps even negative) that means they are probably getting lit up by the opposing lineup.
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