Here are projected scores for today’s DFS pitchers – July 12, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- King of the Hill – Vargas (NYM)… I know right, man these are strange days indeed.
- My Value Pick today is (against my better judgement) Vargas on the road against Miami
- Marlins vs. LH Starters at home have allowed them to average
- Marlins vs. LHP at home have a:
- 0.270 wOBA (Worst in MLB)
- 0.103 ISO (Worst in MLB)
- 22.2 K% (17th worst in MLB).
- Stackables (in order of my preference): Astros, Angels & Rockies
- Small sample size alert! Lamet (SDP) and Clevinger (CLE) have each faced less than 100 batters this season.
DFS Pitchers – July 12, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Jason Vargas NYM | @ MIA | $6,800 | 115 | 33.17 | $7,800 | 117 | 18.38 |
| Jon Gray COL | vs CIN | $7,300 | 101 | 32.42 | $9,000 | 102 | 17.54 |
| Caleb Smith MIA | vs NYM | $8,000 | 105 | 31.86 | $8,600 | 105 | 16.92 |
| Robbie Ray ARI | @ STL | $9,400 | 100 | 30.09 | $7,900 | 101 | 16.59 |
| Mike Fiers OAK | vs CHW | $8,400 | 107 | 30.43 | $8,500 | 109 | 16.18 |
| Dinelson Lamet SDP | vs ATL | $5,600 | 101 | 30.60 | $9,800 | 101 | 15.99 |
| Danny Duffy KCR | vs DET | $7,900 | 109 | 30.78 | $6,800 | 112 | 15.81 |
| Gerrit Cole HOU | @ TEX | $11,400 | 95 | 29.46 | $11,500 | 94 | 15.29 |
| Kyle Gibson MIN | @ CLE | $7,100 | 101 | 27.87 | $7,600 | 101 | 14.62 |
| Domingo German NYY | vs TOR | $8,600 | 102 | 27.13 | $10,100 | 103 | 14.92 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez BOS | vs LAD | $8,100 | 95 | 27.66 | $8,000 | 94 | 14.41 |
| Adam Wainwright STL | vs ARI | $7,600 | 101 | 27.04 | $8,100 | 101 | 13.68 |
| Dallas Keuchel ATL | @ SDP | $7,500 | 104 | 26.91 | $8,200 | 106 | 13.69 |
| Yonny Chirinos TBR | @ BAL | $6,800 | 99 | 25.74 | $8,400 | 99 | 13.49 |
| Daniel Norris DET | @ KCR | $6,600 | 102 | 25.46 | $4,600 | 104 | 13.49 |
| Dylan Bundy BAL | vs TBR | $7,700 | 99 | 25.01 | $7,200 | 99 | 12.57 |
| Shaun Anderson SFG | @ MIL | $6,200 | 99 | 23.86 | $4,800 | 99 | 11.69 |
| Chase Anderson MIL | vs SFG | $6,500 | 105 | 22.98 | $6,300 | 106 | 11.94 |
| Sonny Gray CIN | @ COL | $6,800 | 92 | 22.90 | $8,800 | 91 | 11.47 |
| Kenta Maeda LAD | @ BOS | $6,800 | 91 | 22.31 | $8,900 | 90 | 11.35 |
| **Felix Pena LAA | vs SEA | $6,200 | 100 | 21.61 | $6,700 | 99 | 11.39 |
| Mike Clevinger CLE | vs MIN | $9,300 | 92 | 21.87 | $9,600 | 90 | 10.90 |
| Mike Leake SEA | @ LAA | $8,600 | 89 | 21.21 | $7,900 | 88 | 10.20 |
| Aaron Sanchez TOR | @ NYY | $5,700 | 93 | 20.10 | $4,900 | 92 | 9.37 |
| Ivan Nova CHW | @ OAK | $6,100 | 92 | 19.30 | $5,400 | 91 | 8.86 |
| Jesse Chavez TEX | vs HOU | $6,000 | 89 | 16.40 | $4,000 | 87 | 8.03 |
** Indicates that the pitcher listed will follow an “Opener”
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list and where the Matchup Rating is below 90. While not always the case, typically when a pitcher scores a low total (perhaps even negative) that means they are probably getting lit up by the opposing lineup.
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