Here are projected scores for today’s DFS pitchers – July 1, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- King of the Hill – Allen (SDP)
- My Value Pick today is Samardzija (SFG) on the road versus the Padres.
- San Diego vs. RH Starters at home have allowed them to average
- 29.5 FanDuel ppg (5th Highest – MLB Average is 26.31 ppg)
- 15.8 DraftKings ppg (5th Highest – MLB Average is 13.57 ppg)
- San Diego vs. RHP at home have a:
- 0.293 wOBA (5th worst in MLB)
- 0.170 ISO (11th worst in MLB)
- 25.8 K% (2nd worst in MLB).
- San Diego vs. RH Starters at home have allowed them to average
- Stackables (in order of my preference): Pirates & Cubs
- Small sample size alert! Allen (SDP) and Alzolay (CHC) have each faced less than 100 batters this season. Eshelman (BAL) will be making his MLB debut tonight.
- NOTES
- Eshleman (BAL) was recently called up and named starter tonight. He is not available in FanDuel or DraftKings.
DFS Pitchers – July 1, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Logan Allen SDP | vs SFG | $9,300 | 115 | 41.57 | $9,200 | 118 | 24.97 |
| Mike Minor TEX | vs LAA | $10,800 | 95 | 30.61 | $10,500 | 93 | 16.10 |
| Jeff Samardzija SFG | @ SDP | $6,200 | 106 | 29.37 | $7,200 | 107 | 15.89 |
| Tom Eshelman BAL | @ TBR | – | 103 | 29.42 | – | 103 | 15.79 |
| Tyler Mahle CIN | vs MIL | $7,000 | 101 | 26.98 | $7,500 | 101 | 14.05 |
| Trevor Williams PIT | vs CHC | $7,200 | 99 | 26.98 | $8,100 | 99 | 13.98 |
| Adrian Houser MIL | @ CIN | $5,700 | 103 | 25.18 | $5,800 | 104 | 13.47 |
| ** Ryan Yarbrough TBR | vs BAL | $6,600 | 103 | 24.19 | $6,500 | 103 | 12.89 |
| Adbert Alzolay CHC | @ PIT | $7,500 | 99 | 23.98 | $6,400 | 98 | 11.75 |
| Jose Suarez LAA | @ TEX | $6,500 | 94 | 20.75 | $8,500 | 93 | 9.89 |
** Indicates that the pitcher listed will follow an “Opener”
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list and where the Matchup Rating is below 90. While not always the case, typically when a pitcher scores a low total (perhaps even negative) that means they are probably getting lit up by the opposing lineup.
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