This is my weekly column where I suggest low owned starting pitchers that have a matchup in their favor in the coming week to help your fantasy baseball team. Most of these hurlers are to be used and tossed back to the waiver wire. Some of them will graduate from the wire and find a permanent space on someone’s roster,
Streaming Starting Pitchers Week 15
My process is to look at wOBA, ISO and K% to identify weak lineups and conversely for pitchers I look at wOBA, ISO against and their K%.
All statistics, ownership and projected starting dates are as of Friday, June 28.
LHP Matt Strahm, SDP
Owned Y28%|E17% · vs. San Francisco Giants – Tuesday, July 2
The San Francisco Giants struggle against LHP.
- vs. LHP home & away: 0.265 wOBA (worst in MLB), 0.114 ISO (2nd worst) and a 24.5 K% (11th worst)
- vs. LHP away: 0.239 wOBA (worst in MLB), 0.100 ISO (worst) and a 26.6 K% (7th worst)
- Southpaw starting pitchers are posting a 2.58 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP and averaging just under a strikeout per inning (135 K’s in 136 innings).
Enter the struggling Strahm and his 4.94 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 22.4 K% (71 strikeouts in 74.2 innings). Look, there’s a reason he’s out there treading water in your free agent pool. He has a tendency to serve up the long ball: 16.8% HR/FB and 16 dingers total.
The reason I’m hopeful he’ll provide us with a good start versus the Giants is mainly that San Fran struggles vs LHP on the road. And as for the homerun generosity that Strahm is susceptible to? It bears mentioning that the Giants have only hit 2 round trippers off a lefty starter on the road in 12 games.
LHP Eric Lauer, SDP
Owned Y15%|E7% · vs. San Francisco Giants – Wednesday, July 3
Everything I just said about the Giants above applies here, also. Lauer comes in with a 4.32 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and an 18.3 K% (63 strikeouts in 81.1 innings).
What’s even better is that this game isn’t happening in Coors Field. I say that because if you factor out his two starts in Colorado, where he gave up 13 earned runs, you’re left with a 3.09 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and a 19.5 K%. He’s also better at keeping the score down when at home: 2.70 ERA, 1.18 WHIP but just a 17.2 K%.
He’s scheduled to take the mound in the last game of the home series versus San Fran. If his start gets bumped back it will be in LA facing the Dodgers lineup that feasts on southpaws so I have to warn you to not use him if this happens.
RHP Dakota Hudson, STL
Owned Y32%|E26% · @ San Francisco Giants – Friday, July 5
Hudson is currently sporting a 3.36 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and a 16.0 K% (60 strikeouts in 85.2 innings) over 15 starts and one relief appearance. Over his last 8 starts he has a 2.49 ERA, 1.26 WHIP but only a 14.8 K% (31 strikeouts in 50.2 innings). He has also pitched a minimum of 6 innings in each of those 8 starts. He’s pitching well and should be on more rosters.
He’s on schedule to face the Giants next week in San Francisco where they rank in the bottom of MLB in the key stats I look at:
- vs. RHP home & away: 0.282 wOBA (2nd worst in MLB), 0.116 ISO (worst) and a 25.0 K% (6th worst)
- vs. RHP home: 0.266 wOBA (Worst in MLB), 0.127 ISO (2nd worst) and a 25.3 K% (6th worst)
- Righty starting pitchers are posting a 2.96 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and averaging just under a strikeout per inning (142 K’s in 149 innings).
Here is where I recommend a two-start pitcher for you to stream. Please bear in mind that things can change after this article is posted. Injuries, rain delays, managerial moves, etc. can happen.
RHP Jeff Samardzija, SFG
Owned Y11%|E7% – @ Padres (Mon Jul 1) & vs. Cardinals (Sun Jul 7)
- Padres vs RHP at home: 0.285 wOBA (27th), 0.159 (23rd) and a 26.0 K% (29th).
- Cardinals vs RHP on the road: 0.315 wOBA (17th), 0.179 ISO (14th) and a 24.5 K% (21st).
The matchup in San Diego appeals the most due to their struggles against RHP. They are allowing righty starters to post a 3.82 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP and almost a strikeout per inning (185 K’s in 188.2 innings). The home start against St. Louis is a little more appealing when you notice that Samardzija has a 3.86 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and a 21.6 K% (40 strikeouts in 42 innings) in 8 home starts.
For someone that is available in all but the deepest of leagues, he’s worth the gamble on these two starts.
Streaming Starting Pitchers Week 13 Review
|Tommy Milone, SEA||6/17 vs KCR||1||6.33||1||3||0||6||ND||1.42||0.47|
|Framber Valdez, HOU||6/20 @ NYY||1||3.33||5||4||3||3||L||13.50||2.10|
|Martin Perez, MIN||6/21 @ KCR||1||5.00||4||5||3||2||ND||7.20||1.60|
|Weekly Total||3||14.67||10||12||6||11||0 – 1||6.14||1.23|
|Cumulative Season Total||26||136.33||68||132||54||123||10 – 9||4.49||1.36|
Sigh. My infatuation with Framber Valdez is over. Devastatingly over. And I didn’t need Perez kicking me once more to make sure I was dead.
Here’s a look back at the two start pitcher I recommended back in Week 13.
|Lance Lynn, TEX||6/17 vs CLE||1||7.00||1||6||0||9||W||1.29||0.86|
|Lance Lynn, TEX||6/22 vs CHW||1||7.00||5||6||1||6||W||6.43||1.00|
|Total||2||14.00||6||12||1||15||2 – 0||3.86||0.93|
|Cumulative Season Total||17||96.33||45||95||22||87||8 – 3||4.20||1.21|
Funny, I thought the Indians game was the one to worry about. Oh well, bottom line results is all we’re looking at and we’re looking good.