This is my weekly column where I suggest low owned starting pitchers that have a matchup in their favor in the coming week to help your fantasy baseball team. Most of these hurlers are to be used and tossed back to the waiver wire. Some of them will graduate from the wire and find a permanent space on someone’s roster,
Streaming Starting Pitchers Week 12
My process is to look at wOBA, ISO and K% to identify weak lineups and conversely for pitchers I look at wOBA, ISO against and their K%.
All statistics, ownership and projected starting dates are as of Thursday afternoon, June 6.
RHP Julio Teheran, ATL
Owned Y58% | E50% · vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – Thursday, June 13
I recommended streaming him back in Week 9 against the Giants and he did everything except get the W (stupid bullpen meltdown!). He’s been on fire over his past 6 starts to the tune of a 0.83 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, a 18.4 K%, 25 strikeouts and no homeruns in 32.2 innings. Strangely, he only has 1 win to show for his effort.
His season numbers sit at a 3.28 ERA, 4.90 xFIP, 1.26 WHIP and a 22.7 K% in 71.1 innings over 13 starts. He is using his slider 26.1% and changeup 11.8% of the time in 2019 which is a good bit more than in the past (21.5% career slider usage and 8.3% career changeup usage). This is leading to less reliance on his fastball and curveball. However way you look at it, he’s dealing and we need to take notice.
Next week, Julio takes on the Pirates at home where they are currently in the bottom half of the league in wOBA (0.312, 13th worst), and ISO (0.144, 4th worst) when facing right-handed pitchers on the road. They don’t strikeout a lot (21.1 K%, 9th best) in that situation though but are allowing right-handed starting pitchers to average 3.60 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 4.6 strikeouts in 19 starts.
Although this matchup with the Pirates isn’t totally lopsided in his favor, I like the way Teheran is pitching and I feel confident in rolling him out there this week.
If his start gets bumped back it will be at home versus the Phillies… and I’ll tell you to not hesitate to start him. The Phillies provide a slightly better matchup than the Pirates.
RHP Joe Musgrove, PIT
Owned Y43%|E55% · @ Miami Marlins – Saturday, June 15
In his 12 starts this season he has a 4.56 ERA, 4.67 xFIP, 1.23 WHIP with an 18.8 K%. He’s troublesome, to say the least. If you dig a little deeper you’ll see that on the road he’s much better: 3.29 ERA, 4.47 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP and a 19.7 K% in 7 starts.
He’ll take the nice road split into Miami where he’ll face the once struggling Marlins. I say ‘once struggling’ because they’ve won 13 of 18 since May 17th and have scored the 4th most runs (108) since then.
Why am I suggesting rolling Musgrove out there then? Because this hot streak of the Marlins will not last. You know that, right? During the run they faced the Mets, Tigers, Nationals, Giants, Padres and Brewers. You can make the argument that the Tigers and Giants have jumped Miami for
Even with this hot
RHP Spencer Turnbull, DET
Owned Y39%|E21% · vs Cleveland Indians – Sunday, June 16
I still haven’t fully recovered from Turnbull’s horrific 2-start week back in Week 9. Like any good pitcher, you have to have a short memory and move on to the next batter… er, next week.
He’s been quite good through his 13 starts where he has a 3.10 ERA, 4.50 xFIP, 1.28 WHIP and a 21.9 K%. For the most part he is almost the same pitcher at home as he is on the road. While his 3.16 ERA and 1.41 WHIP are slightly worse at home, his 24.2 K% is better.
He’ll be taking on the Indians who bring into Detroit their 0.295 wOBA (6th worst in MLB), 0.159 ISO (12th worst) and 23.8 K% (15th worst) when facing RHP on the road. In 23 starts, the Indians are allowing RHP starting pitchers to average 3.31 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 5.7 strikeouts.
Here is where I recommend a two-start pitcher for you to stream. Please bear in mind that things can change after this article is posted. Injuries, rain delays, managerial moves, etc. can happen.
RHP Anibal Sanchez, WAS
Owned Y15%|E7% – @ White Sox (Mon Jun 10) & vs. Diamondbacks (Sat Jun 15)
Sanchez carries a 4.19 ERA, 4.91 xFIP, 1.45 WHIP and a 22.8 K% through 11 starts for the Nationals this season. His last 5 starts have been something to build on with a 1.66 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 28 strikeouts and a 31.5 K%.
- White Sox vs RHP at home: 0.311 wOBA (11th worst in MLB), 0.155 ISO (6th worst) and a 25.6 K% (6th worst) but since May 7th: 0.295 wOBA (8th worst), 0.120 ISO (3rd worst) and a 22.0 K% (19th worst).
- Diamondbacks vs RHP on the road: 0.316 wOBA (14th worst in MLB), 0.180 (17th worst) and a 22.8 K% (17th worst) but since May 7th: 0.287 wOBA (4th worst), 0.110 ISO (worst) and a 24.6 K% (10th worst).
Both of these matchups make the low-owned Sanchez attractive next week.
Streaming Starting Pitchers Week 10 Review
|Tommy Milone, SEA||5/27 vs TEX||1||5.67||2||4||1||7||W||3.18||0.88|
|Lance Lynn, TEX||5/27 @ SEA||1||6.00||3||7||3||10||L||4.50||1.67|
|Weekly Total||2||11.67||5||11||4||17||1 – 1||3.86||1.29|
|Cumulative Season Total||18||93.67||43||89||39||88||7 – 6||4.13||1.37|
Milone and Lynn came through for us even though Lynn’s start was all over the place. I’m getting closer to lowering my overall ERA down below 4!
The third pitcher I recommended was Adam Plutko @ Chicago White Sox on June 2nd but he was sent back down to the minors on May 25th after giving up 7 earned runs and 12 hits (including 4 homeruns) to the Rays. We dodged a bullet with that one.
Here’s a look back at the two start pitcher I recommended back in Week 10.
|Sonny Gray, CIN||5/27 vs PIT||1||6.00||1||5||2||7||W||1.50||1.17|
|Sonny Gray, CIN||6/2 vs WSN||1||5.00||2||5||1||4||L||3.60||1.20|
|Total||2||11.00||3||10||3||11||1 – 1||2.45||1.18|
|Cumulative Season Total||12||67.33||34||69||17||65||4 – 3||4.54||1.28|
Thank you, Sonny Gray! He (hopefully) put an end to the bad streak I was on with my 2-start recommendations. If he is still available in your league and you need pitching help (who doesn’t , right?)… pick him up. He should be owned in all formats.