Here are projected scores for tonight’s DFS pitchers – June 26, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- King of the Hill
- Early slate – Sale (BOS)
- Main slate – Minor (TEX).
- My Value Pick tonight is Valdez (HOU) at home versus the Pirates.
- He started out great last week in New York but then fell apart in the 4th inning. I also wrote about this matchup in Straight Cheese.
- Pittsburgh vs LHP on the road have allowed right-handed starting pitchers to average
- 37.6 FanDuel ppg (2nd Highest – MLB Average is 26.32 ppg)
- 21.2 DraftKings ppg (Tied for Highest – MLB Average is 13.57 ppg)
- Pittsburgh vs LHP on the road have a:
- 0.275 wOBA (2nd worst in MLB)
- 0.135 ISO (5th worst in MLB)
- 27.8 K% (4th worst in MLB).
- Stackables (in order of my preference):
- Early slate – Red Sox & Dodgers.
- Main slate – Mariners, Angels & Phillies.
- Small sample size alert! Barria (LAA), Keuchel (ATL), Gallen (MIA) and Agrazal (PIT) have all faced less than 100 batters this season. Gonsolin (LAD) is making his 2019 debut tonight.
- Notes
- Gonsolin (LAD) isn’t available on FanDuel.
DFS Pitchers – Early Slate – June 26, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Chris Sale BOS | vs CHW | $11,500 | 109 | 39.04 | $11,600 | 111 | 22.48 |
| German Marquez COL | @ SFG | $8,600 | 113 | 36.63 | $10,000 | 115 | 20.72 |
| James Paxton NYY | vs TOR | $9,300 | 108 | 34.00 | $9,000 | 111 | 18.93 |
| Trevor Bauer CLE | vs KCR | $11,200 | 102 | 34.09 | $10,600 | 103 | 18.47 |
| Dylan Bundy BAL | vs SDP | $7,300 | 104 | 31.01 | $8,100 | 106 | 16.94 |
| Jeff Samardzija SFG | vs COL | $6,100 | 106 | 28.97 | $6,400 | 106 | 15.67 |
| Tony Gonsolin LAD | @ ARI | – | 99 | 27.46 | $6,800 | 98 | 14.27 |
| Matt Strahm SDP | @ BAL | $7,000 | 104 | 27.75 | $6,000 | 104 | 14.10 |
| Jakob Junis KCR | @ CLE | $7,200 | 99 | 26.75 | $6,600 | 100 | 13.61 |
| Trent Thornton TOR | @ NYY | $7,900 | 96 | 24.00 | $7,400 | 95 | 12.05 |
| Reynaldo Lopez CHW | @ BOS | $5,800 | 90 | 20.26 | $5,500 | 90 | 9.62 |
| Taylor Clarke ARI | vs LAD | $5,700 | 90 | 16.24 | $5,000 | 89 | 7.51 |
DFS Pitchers – Main Slate – June 26, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp | | | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Mike Minor TEX | @ DET | $10,100 | 112 | 39.97 | $11,000 | 114 | 22.24 |
| Patrick Corbin WSN | @ MIA | $9,800 | 115 | 36.12 | $10,600 | 117 | 19.85 |
| Matthew Boyd DET | vs TEX | $9,400 | 104 | 35.15 | $10,000 | 104 | 19.70 |
| Jaime Barria LAA | vs CIN | $6,000 | 108 | 33.65 | $6,900 | 109 | 18.15 |
| Framber Valdez HOU | vs PIT | $7,700 | 111 | 30.81 | $6,900 | 111 | 17.27 |
| Yu Darvish CHC | vs ATL | $7,400 | 102 | 30.60 | $7,600 | 102 | 16.12 |
| Jake Odorizzi MIN | vs TBR | $9,700 | 102 | 28.13 | $9,500 | 101 | 14.63 |
| Dallas Keuchel ATL | @ CHC | $6,900 | 97 | 27.32 | $8,000 | 97 | 14.11 |
| Nick Pivetta PHI | vs NYM | $7,100 | 99 | 26.53 | $7,300 | 98 | 13.51 |
| Zac Gallen MIA | vs WSN | $7,800 | 102 | 26.25 | $7,100 | 102 | 13.54 |
| Charlie Morton TBR | @ MIN | $10,000 | 93 | 26.12 | $10,200 | 91 | 13.50 |
| Daniel Mengden OAK | @ STL | $6,200 | 102 | 24.70 | $6,900 | 102 | 12.38 |
| Adam Wainwright STL | vs OAK | $7,500 | 95 | 24.27 | $7,000 | 95 | 12.28 |
| Wade LeBlanc SEA | @ MIL | $6,800 | 93 | 21.75 | $5,800 | 93 | 11.08 |
| Tanner Roark CIN | @ LAA | $8,000 | 92 | 21.15 | $7,900 | 90 | 10.33 |
| Dario Agrazal PIT | @ HOU | $5,500 | 93 | 20.15 | $5,300 | 90 | 9.07 |
| Jason Vargas NYM | @ PHI | $5,900 | 96 | 18.31 | $6,600 | 95 | 8.92 |
| Adrian Houser MIL | vs SEA | $5,500 | 92 | 17.34 | $5,700 | 92 | 8.83 |
** Indicates that the pitcher listed will follow an “Opener”
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list and where the Matchup Rating is below 90. While not always the case, typically when a pitcher scores a low total (perhaps even negative) that means they are probably getting lit up by the opposing lineup.
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