This is my weekly column where I suggest low-owned starting pitchers that have a matchup in their favor in the coming week to help your fantasy baseball team. Most of these hurlers are to be used and tossed back to the waiver wire. Some of them will graduate from the wire and find a permanent space on a roster, hopefully yours. This week we are looking at streaming starting pitchers week 6.
My process is to look at wOBA, ISO and K% to identify weak-hitting lineups. Conversely, for pitchers I look at wOBA, ISO against and their K%.
Streaming Starting Pitchers Week 4 Review
Before we get into next week’s pitchers to stream let’s look back at my previous recommendations, streaming starting pitchers week 4. Note we have to look back two weeks since last week’s Straight Cheese is for the current week. Got it? Good.
|Anibal Sanchez||4/19 at MIA||1||5.67||3||5||4||6||L||4.76||1.59|
|Yonny Chirinos||4/17 vs BAL||1||5.00||0||1||1||5||W||0.00||0.40|
|Total||2||10.67||3||6||5||11||1 – 1||2.53||1.03|
You’ll notice Trevor Williams is missing. I recommended him when he was slotted to face the San Francisco Giants on April 19th. Well his start was bumped up to the 17th in Detroit and although he did alright (2 earned runs and 5 strikeouts in 6 innings) I wouldn’t have recommended him.
My analysis is very dependent on the opponent of the pitcher. If his start moves and results in a different opponent, stream him at your own risk but don’t come crying to me if things go sideways.
All statistics, ownership and projected starting dates are as of Thursday morning, April 25.
Streaming Starting Pitchers Week 6
This week the stars have aligned and we’ve been given a gift from the MLB scheduling Gods. That gift is the Colorado Rockies on the road facing a pitching staff heavy with righties.
Colorado on the road versus RHP so far in 2019 (282 plate appearances): 0.219 wOBA (worst in MLB), 0.080 ISO (worst in MLB) and striking out 28.0% of the time (26th). Wow, they are struggling at this baseball thing on the road. And just so you know that this isn’t a recent trend, last season they finished worst in wOBA (0.281), 25th in ISO (0.141) and 26th in K% (25.3%).
So, without further ado I’m advising you to take advantage by streaming these three Milwaukee Brewers pitchers.
RHP Jhoulys Chacin, MIL
Owned Y34%/E36% · vs Colorado Rockies – Tuesday, April 30th
When you look at Chacin’s 6.35 ERA, 5.34 xFIP, 1.41 WHIP and 25 strikeouts in 28.1 innings (20.5 K%) you’ll probably second guess why I am recommending him to you. What if I told you that since the start of the 2018 season at home in Milwaukee he has a 3.87 ERA, 4.58 xFIP, 1.19 WHIP and a 19.7 K%? I know, still not great but serviceable for someone available in about two out of every three leagues.
Take his home stats and combine them with Colorado’s woes on the road vs. RHP and you get a nice little pitcher to stream.
RHP Freddy Peralta, MIL
Owned Y19%/E7% · vs. Colorado Rockies – Thursday, May 2nd
Okay, stay with me on this one. Peralta could be the one that blows up in our face here. His line so far through 17.2 innings: 7.13 ERA, 5.05 xFIP, 1.53 WHIP and 22 strikeouts (26.5 K%). Deep breath – here’s where I get my hope that he’ll reward us. Last year at home he had a 2.73 ERA, 4.05 xFIP, 0.79 WHIP and 33.1 K%. We can definitely use that, right?
Well, his two home starts this year were both against the St. Louis Cardinals and he was lit up like a Christmas tree to the tune of a 9.95 ERA, 11.17 xFIP, 2.53 WHIP and only a 15.8 K%. Deeper breath – well, Colorado is no St. Louis. The Cards are currently ranked high in our three key metrics: 0.358 wOBA (7th), 0.233 (6th) and 25.7 K% (22nd).
I truly believe that the Rockies’ suckiness will outweigh Peralta’s and we, the fantasy baseball players, will benefit.
RHP Brandon Woodruff, MIL
Owned Y26%/E14% ·
vs. Colorado Rockies – Thursday, May 2nd
** NOTE – Woodruff’s start has been pushed back to Friday vs. Mets. Start at your own risk **
Woodruff makes it into back-to-back editions of Straight Cheese! Through 5 starts (26.1 innings) he has a 5.81 ERA, 3.81 xFIP, 1.48 WHIP and 32 strikeouts (27.1 K%). Much like Peralta he hasn’t been all that great at home: 5.75 ERA, 4.03 xFIP, 1.67 WHIP and 26.3 K%.
He faced some tough opponents: Cardinals (2x), Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers. All three are Top 12 in wOBA and ISO. The Cubs and Dodgers are Top 9 in K%. Again, it bears repeating that the Rockies aren’t as good as the opponents Woodruff faced at home.
You could also make the argument to start RHP Chase Anderson vs. the Rockies on Wednesday, May 1st. His overall numbers are slightly worse than the three I’m telling you to start but he’s a viable option due to Colorado’s struggles against RHP on the road.
Here is where I recommend a two-start pitcher for you to stream. Please bear in mind that things can change after this article is posted. Injuries, rain delays, managerial moves, etc. can happen.
A perfect example was in week 4 when I told you to roll out Detroit Tigers’ Matthew Boyd. The Tigers were rained out on Saturday, so Boyd’s Sunday start was bumped to Monday (ultimately Tuesday after another rainout!).
I’m still going to track the starts of the guys I’m recommending to stream for two starts. Typically, we’re looking for two-start pitchers because we’re locking lineups for the week.
|Matthew Boyd||4/16 vs PIT||1||7.00||3||6||1||7||ND||3.86||1.00|
|Total||1||7.00||3||6||1||7||0 – 0||3.86||1.00|
RHP Michael Soroka, ATL
Owned Y35%/E16% – vs. San Diego (Mon Apr 29) & at Miami Marlins (Sat May 4)
Well, Soroka has only had two starts in 2019 but they were significantly better than average: 1.69 ERA, 3.00 xFIP, 1.31 WHIP and 13 strikeouts in 10.2 innings (26.5 K%). Last season in five MLB starts he put up a 3.51 ERA, 3.63 xFIP, 1.44 WHIP and 21 strikeouts in 25.2 innings (18.6 K%).
He’s a fine young talented pitcher that the Atlanta Braves are very high on, and for good reason. In 307.2 minor league innings since 2015 he has a 2.84 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 331 strikeouts (22.0 K%).
The San Diego Padres are currently posting a 0.307 wOBA (19th), 0.208 ISO (10th) and 27.3 K% (25th) through 300 plate appearances on the road vs RHP. The Marlins, meanwhile, have a 0.284 wOBA (27th), 0.118 ISO (27th) and 29.9 K% (29th) at home vs. RHP.
The Padres start could be bumpy but the Marlins should prove no problem for Soroka. Get him in your lineup for both starts and, who knows, he might be someone you hang on to for longer.