Tier 4: Solid Gents and Upside Plays

31. Hiroki Kuroda, RHP, LAD (3.39 ERA, 3.14 FIP, +0.25 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
Kuroda is the perfect kind of pitcher for fantasy owners on the lookout for a bargain. He’s seemingly always underrated on draft day because he’s old and not very flashy, but Kuroda does just about everything right as far as fantasy production is concerned. I’m looking for a mid-3’s ERA, a WHIP in the high 1.10’s, and 140+ K out of him. He’s going behind John Lackey, James Shields, Ricky Nolasco and Edwin Jackson, all of whom I consider inferior talents at this point. Enjoy your bargain old guy.

32. Jonathan Sanchez, LHP, SF (3.07 ERA, 4.01 FIP, -0.94 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
He’ll probably end up with an ERA near 3.70 (the defense behind him is the bees knees), a WHIP in the low 1.30’s, and 190+ K if he can stay healthy. He looked really tired at the end of last season, though, so I’m worried about him more than most in terms of potential overwork and injury risk. If someone wants to pay the extra buck for him because of last year’s “breakout”, let them.

33. Ryan Dempster, RHP, CHC (3.85 ERA, 4.01 FIP, -0.16 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
Dempster keeps chugging along with above average results. Banking on a 3.80+ ERA, 190 K, and a 1.30ish WHIP seems as safe a bet as you could make on a pitcher. Of course, that’s usually when the floor starts moving out from under your feet. Kidding! (Mostly.)

34. C.J. Wilson, LHP, TEX (3.35 ERA, 3.64 FIP, -0.29 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
A totally unexpected outcome, except perhaps by his mother. That’s the best way I could describe Wilson’s 2010 season. There’s wiggle room for a little improvement in his peripherals, too, but that should be offset by an uptick in both BABIP and HR/9 this year as he was rather lucky in both last season. Still, with a very good defense behind him, he could put up a FIP near 3.80 and an ERA in the 3.60 range with 165+ K and a WHIP in the low 1.30’s (or high 1.20’s). In other words, last year wasn’t a fluke. And Adrian Beltre will help the groundball hurler more than most with his outstanding defense at third. If others shy away, don’t be afraid to grab him.

35. Johnny Cueto, RHP, CIN (3.64 ERA, 3.97 FIP, -0.33 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Cueto had an above average HR/9 for the first time in his career, but it was fueled by a probably unsustainable drop in his HR/FB rather than anything else. So there’s cause for some concern in his FIP rising. But the good news is that he finally found a workable change-up last season which should help him move closer towards putting a real game plan together against a full line-up of hitters from either side of the plate. If he can only combine the success he’s had in years past against righties with the change-up attack plan he succeeded with last year against lefties, Cueto may finally realize all that potential he showed in his inaugural season. That first start of his where he thrashed the Diamondbacks with pure stuff alone still sticks with me as one of the best prospect moments of the past few years. My prediction is a step up from prior years with a 3.70 ERA, a low 1.20’s WHIP, and 160+ K in 190 IP. Yep, I’m still a fan, and I think he’s very close to putting it all together. It also doesn’t hurt that he has perhaps the league’s best defense behind him.

36. Jaime Garcia, LHP, STL (2.70 ERA, 3.41 FIP, -0.71 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Garcia’s a personal fave of mine as I love southpaw sinkerballers, and he came up and not only fit that bill, but also displayed the pitchability and poise of a veteran in his first full season. I like to think of him as the anti-Anthony Reyes. Garcia’s ERA was an obvious fluke last year, and with a general regression, it’s much more likely his ERA will be closer to 4.00 than to 2.70 this season. Still, under Dave Duncan’s tutelage, I think he’s going to hone his control and pitching acumen to where we shouldn’t worry too much, and there’s even some upside for a higher GB/FB ratio. Also, St. Louis’ ballpark is quite spacious when it comes to homeruns, so even though he may regress a bit in HR/9, I don’t think the pendulum swings quite as far back as many will bank on. The Cardinals will likely lean heavily on Garcia with Wainwright’s injury weighing on them, and I’m projecting him strongly at a 3.50 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and 165 K in over 200 innings.

37. Ted Lilly, LHP, LAD (3.62 ERA, 4.29 FIP, -0.67 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
Lilly, along with his Dodger teammate Kuroda, is amongst the fun veteran population segment in MLB that seem to always go for less than they return in the draft. We know Lilly is a good control pitcher at this point. We know he gives a good return in WHIP and K’s and doesn’t hurt you in ERA for the most part. We know this, but a lot of owners can’t get around the fact that he doesn’t have much upside or may fall off because he’s old. I’m here to say that old people are okay. They’re okay and it’s okay to hold them and love them and not be embarrassed about it. AARP Anonymous meetings will be held directly after draft season. I’ll gladly lead the first session. Now go out and get these guys and don’t feel badly about it!

38. Ricky Romero, LHP, TOR (3.73 ERA, 3.67 FIP, +0.06 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
I believe in Ricky Romero. I think he could repeat last year’s numbers, although I’d probably pay for a slightly higher ERA and WHIP. He has an excellent array of pitches at his disposal, so while he may never be an elite pitching option, he’s always going to be able to get through an occasional extra walk here and there with his solid strikeout rate and excellent groundball-inducing skills.

39. Gio Gonzalez, LHP, OAK (3.23 ERA, 3.84 FIP, -0.61 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
I’d bank on 180+ K, a low-to-mid 1.30’s WHIP, and an ERA under 3.80. He’s due for an ERA regression, but there’s obvious upside here with the strikeout stuff Gonzalez has and his defense and park factor both play well in his favor. I don’t think he becomes an ace at any point, but Gonzalez is a solid play in my opinion.

40. John Danks, LHP, CHW (3.72 ERA, 3.75 FIP, -0.03 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
I would love Danks in most any other situation, but I have a hard time taking him too seriously in U.S. Cellular with a bad defense behind him. I expect regression in both BABIP and HR/9 for him this year (I believe he lucked out more often than not in 2010), so something more along the lines of a 4.00 ERA and a high 1.20’s/low 1.30’s WHIP seem much more likely.

41. Javier Vazquez, RHP, FLA (5.32 ERA, 5.56 FIP, -0.24 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor: Neutral
Vazquez goes from one of the worst parks in baseball in terms of homerun park factor to one of the best. Also, even if his velocity doesn’t come all the way back, I still think he’s a very solid bet to get his control back now that he’s not in the spotlight (and homerun horror) of New York. And, oh yeah, he’s back in the much more pitcher-friendly NL. By those powers combined, I think Vazquez’ floor this year is in the vicinity of a 4.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 150+ K. I’d bid pretty confidently.

42. Josh Beckett, RHP, BOS (5.78 ERA, 4.55 FIP, +1.23 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Despite a concussion this Spring, he looks and sounds hungry for a rebound. As a guy who I believe sometimes requires extra motivation to do his best, Beckett seems like an excellent rebound candidate.

43. Ricky Nolasco, RHP, FLA (4.51 ERA, 3.92 FIP, +0.59 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
We analysts keep finding excuses for Nolasco, and he keeps transcending them into being mediocre no matter what. I’m done making excuses. Buy him for a 4.00+ ERA, a high 1.20’s WHIP, 150+ K, and some durability issues. If someone else wants to bid on potential at this point, let them. His defense nor his park factor warrant going the extra mile to acquire him.

44. Ian Kennedy, RHP, ARI (3.80 ERA, 4.37 FIP, -0.57 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Kennedy did well for himself in 2010, but he reminds me too much of a Scott Baker type of pitcher (good control without great stuff) to call for any sort of big breakout. In fact, I think 2010 WAS the breakout. He’s still plenty useful as a 4.00 ERA, high 1.20’s WHIP, and 160+ strikeout pitcher, though, so bid according to need.

45. John Lackey, RHP, BOS (4.40 ERA, 3.89 FIP, +0.51 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
By year’s end, Lackey’s performance wasn’t too terribly off from seasons past, even though he looked pretty awful early on. He could easily eclipse the 4.00 ERA mark and get back into the high 3.00’s this year. I also anticipate Boston’s improved defense to help his BABIP to fall, driving down his WHIP along with it. And he’ll get his share of Wins on a very excellent Boston team. Rumors of Lackey’s demise were greatly exaggerated. There is no fork sticking out of his back. Bid aggressively on him.

46. Gavin Floyd, RHP, CHW (4.08 ERA, 3.48 FIP, +0.60 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Despite a positive FIP-to-ERA differential, Floyd profiles as more of a 4.00 ERA pitcher given the poor park factor and bad defense. I expect a FIP somewhere in the 3.75-4.00 range, and his ERA should be worse than that. There is a chance that his WHIP returns to the 1.20’s with a BABIP regression, and he’s got a good shot at 150 K, so it’s not all doom and gloom. He’s a solid pitcher with a little bit of upside, so watch Floyd as you’re bargain shopping on draft day.

47. Brett Myers, RHP, HOU (3.14 ERA, 3.61 FIP, -0.47 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
Myers surprised many last year by staying healthy for a full season and providing very good overall numbers for fantasy owners. He posted the best control of his career (a 2.66 BB/9) and his HR/9 was also a career best at 0.80. Expect him to regress in both areas as well as fall back in total innings pitched now that he has a long term contract with the Astros. (Yes, I’m jaded. And yes, I believe Myers was partially motivated by money.) It is interesting to note that Minute Maid Park has played as a pretty heavy pitchers’ park in the past few years. I expect the HR/9 to regress some, but not back up to Myers’ career level that was in the 1.30 HR per 9 innings range before last year.

48. Brian Matusz, LHP, BAL (4.30 ERA, 4.08 FIP, +0.22 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
Expect continued growth in Matusz’s game as he continues to incrementally increase his strikeout rate and lower his walk rate. There’s actually a good chance he sees his ERA dip just south of 4.00 with his WHIP lowering just below 1.30, too. Add all that improvement to the possibility of 160+ strikeouts, and you’ve got yourself a pretty valuable pitcher, especially in AL leagues.

49. Zack Greinke, RHP, MIL (4.17 ERA, 3.41 FIP, +0.76 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
History isn’t rife in the recent past with examples of experienced pitchers coming back from broken ribs during a season, so I’m not sure what to expect out of the gate. I was extremely bearish on him before the injury, but expectations have to be tempered quite a bit as he’ll miss at least the first few weeks of the season. And I’d expect his production to be affected for at least a few weeks after that. He’ll be good by June, but great gravity, that’s a long ways away. Bid on great production for four months, mediocre (or worse) production for one, and one month of recovery.

50. James Shields, RHP, TB (5.18 ERA, 4.29 FIP, +0.89 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Shields is a guy who, in theory, should benefit plenty from his spacious home park and excellent defense. In practice, though, the man serves up homerun-friendly fastballs like he was on the payroll for the All-Star Break Homerun Derby. Still, there’s some solid value to be found here, especially for those who think he’s toast (come to think of it, I like toast, especially with butter and jam, but I assure you that’s not why I still like Shields). I think an ERA near 4.00 and a WHIP in the high 1.20’s is very attainable. I wouldn’t pay for last year’s strikeout rate, though. If he can keep it up, that’s great, but it seems a bit fluky for my taste.

51. Phil Hughes, RHP, NYY (4.19 ERA, 4.31 FIP, -0.12 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
I like Hughes. I really do. But Yankee Stadium is always going to be an issue for him as an extreme flyballer. He’s going to need to mitigate that problem by striking out as many as he can and lowering his walk rate even further. I believe he has the talent to do that in the long run, but in 2011? I’m not so sure. I wouldn’t expect much better than his 2010 numbers except an increase in innings and thus an increase in total K (I’d bet on 165+ with a full workload). He certainly has the talent to be even better, I just don’t expect it just yet as he continues to adjust to being a starter in a tough stadium in a tough town.

52. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, TB (3.47 ERA, 3.88 FIP, -0.41 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Hellickson’s the real deal. If there’s one young pitcher I’m going to go strong on this season, it’s Hells. The real issue with him is the innings cap as he’s unlikely to go much over 160 innings this year. But I could see a mid-3’s ERA with a WHIP in the 1.15 neighborhood along with 150 strikeouts even if 160 innings is his cap. He’s the type of pitcher whose adjustment to the big leagues should be easier than most as his command is quite good, he has solid secondary offerings and knows what to do with them, and he’s got a great defense behind him in a fairly cavernous park. Yes, young pitchers are scary, but if you’d like to face your fears this year, I’d look in Hells’ direction.

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