Here are projected scores for tonight’s DFS pitchers – June 18, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- King of the Hill – Kershaw (LAD).
- My value pick tonight is Flaherty (STL) at home vs. the Marlins.
- The Marlins vs RHP on the road have allowed right-handed starting pitchers to average
- The Marlins vs RHP on the road have a 0.288 wOBA (4th worst in MLB), 0.121 ISO (MLB worst) and a 24.3 K% (11th worst).
- Flaherty in 7 home starts has a 2.25 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and struck out 29.0% of the batters he faced.
- Stackables (in order of my preference): Dodgers, Astros & Rangers.
- Small sample size alert! Keller (PIT), Yamamoto (MIA) and Plesac (CLE) have each faced less than 100 batters this season. Allen (SDP) is making his MLB debut.
- NOTES:
- Allen (SDP) is not available on FanDuel.
DFS Pitchers – June 18, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Clayton Kershaw LAD | vs SFG | $10,700 | 112 | 42.38 | $11,200 | 116 | 24.36 |
| Mitch Keller PIT | vs DET | $5,500 | 114 | 39.18 | $6,900 | 117 | 22.14 |
| Jack Flaherty STL | vs MIA | $8,000 | 115 | 37.18 | $8,700 | 118 | 21.15 |
| Brandon Woodruff MIL | @ SDP | $9,300 | 113 | 36.75 | $9,300 | 115 | 20.69 |
| Cole Hamels CHC | vs CHW | $8,600 | 111 | 36.87 | $10,500 | 112 | 20.43 |
| Justin Verlander HOU | @ CIN | $12,000 | 103 | 36.09 | $11,900 | 104 | 20.30 |
| Logan Allen SDP | vs MIL | – | 103 | 35.00 | $7,700 | 103 | 18.85 |
| Patrick Corbin WSN | vs PHI | $9,400 | 104 | 33.65 | $8,200 | 105 | 18.28 |
| Tyler Skaggs LAA | @ TOR | $7,600 | 108 | 32.70 | $8,500 | 112 | 18.61 |
| Julio Teheran ATL | vs NYM | $8,200 | 105 | 31.13 | $9,500 | 105 | 16.51 |
| Adrian Sampson TEX | vs CLE | $7,200 | 102 | 29.26 | $7,800 | 103 | 15.70 |
| Merrill Kelly ARI | vs COL | $8,300 | 102 | 28.69 | $8,000 | 102 | 15.15 |
| J.A. Happ NYY | vs TBR | $7,900 | 101 | 28.08 | $7,500 | 101 | 14.50 |
| Homer Bailey KCR | @ SEA | $6,800 | 105 | 27.51 | $6,700 | 106 | 14.44 |
| Jacob deGrom NYM | @ ATL | $10,400 | 98 | 27.27 | $10,300 | 96 | 13.68 |
| Yusei Kikuchi SEA | vs KCR | $6,000 | 106 | 26.75 | $5,300 | 108 | 13.76 |
| Michael Pineda MIN | vs BOS | $6,600 | 97 | 25.70 | $7,300 | 97 | 13.50 |
| Jordan Yamamoto MIA | @ STL | $7,500 | 102 | 25.97 | $8,300 | 102 | 12.85 |
| Jake Arrieta PHI | @ WSN | $7,900 | 98 | 26.01 | $7,300 | 98 | 12.80 |
| Brett Anderson OAK | vs BAL | $7,000 | 103 | 25.56 | $6,200 | 104 | 12.62 |
| Antonio Senzatela COL | @ ARI | $6,300 | 97 | 24.24 | $4,900 | 97 | 12.02 |
| David Price BOS | @ MIN | $9,000 | 88 | 23.86 | $9,100 | 85 | 12.14 |
| Daniel Norris DET | @ PIT | $6,200 | 102 | 22.17 | $5,700 | 101 | 10.93 |
| Marcus Stroman TOR | vs LAA | $7,400 | 91 | 21.04 | $8,100 | 88 | 10.03 |
| Ivan Nova CHW | @ CHC | $5,800 | 95 | 20.68 | $5,000 | 94 | 9.35 |
| Gabriel Ynoa BAL | @ OAK | $5,600 | 96 | 19.35 | $4,500 | 95 | 9.47 |
| Zach Plesac CLE | @ TEX | $7,800 | 90 | 19.73 | $7,900 | 89 | 9.18 |
| Shaun Anderson SFG | @ LAD | $7,300 | 90 | 19.77 | $6,600 | 87 | 8.80 |
| Ryne Stanek TBR | @ NYY | $4,000 | 96 | 18.66 | $4,200 | 95 | 9.27 |
| Anthony DeSclafani CIN | vs HOU | $6,400 | 87 | 18.31 | $7,100 | 84 | 8.71 |
** Indicates that the pitcher listed will follow an “Opener”
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list and where the Matchup Rating is below 90. While not always the case, typically when a pitcher scores a low total (perhaps even negative) that means they are probably getting lit up by the opposing lineup.
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