Here are projected scores for tonight’s DFS pitchers – June 14, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- King of the Hill – Davies (MIL) sites atop tonight with a very nice matchup in San Fran.
- My value pick tonight is Davies (MIL)
- The Giants at home vs RHP have a 0.246 wOBA (MLB worst), 0.111 ISO (2nd worst) and a 27.0 K% (2nd worst).
- In home games the Giants allow right-handed starting pitchers to average 34.0 FanDuel ppg and 19.2 DraftKings ppg.
- Davies has only allowed more than 2 earned runs in 2 of his 13 starts in 2019… both were at home. On the road he has a 1.88 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and struck out 18.8% of the batters he ‘s faced.
- Stackables (in order of my preference): Dodgers, A’s and Rockies.
- Small sample size alert! Plutko (CLE), Heaney (LAA) and Ponce de Leon (STL) have all faced less than 100 batters this season.
- NOTES:
- According to Evan Grant at Dallas Morning News, Texas appears to be going with a bullpen game tonight.
Chavez starts. After that 🤷♂️ https://t.co/mytzhGbDwQ
— Evan Grant (@Evan_P_Grant) June 14, 2019
DFS Pitchers – June 14, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Zach Davies MIL | @ SFG | $8,000 | 114 | 36.05 | $6,800 | 117 | 20.53 |
| Adam Plutko CLE | @ DET | $7,600 | 111 | 35.25 | $7,200 | 113 | 19.05 |
| Gerrit Cole HOU | vs TOR | $12,000 | 108 | 33.98 | $11,900 | 110 | 19.10 |
| Max Scherzer WSN | vs ARI | $11,600 | 100 | 33.05 | $11,500 | 99 | 17.53 |
| Rich Hill LAD | vs CHC | $9,700 | 101 | 32.94 | $10,300 | 100 | 17.54 |
| Kyle Gibson MIN | vs KCR | $8,300 | 104 | 32.67 | $9,300 | 105 | 17.48 |
| Max Fried ATL | vs PHI | $7,300 | 103 | 31.83 | $6,900 | 104 | 17.20 |
| Jeff Hoffman COL | vs SDP | $5,700 | 102 | 31.33 | $6,100 | 105 | 17.38 |
| Andrew Heaney LAA | @ TBR | $8,900 | 106 | 31.99 | $8,800 | 105 | 17.00 |
| Steven Matz NYM | vs STL | $7,800 | 103 | 31.11 | $7,100 | 103 | 16.21 |
| Blake Snell TBR | vs LAA | $10,500 | 97 | 30.06 | $10,000 | 95 | 15.79 |
| Robbie Ray ARI | @ WSN | $9,200 | 97 | 29.27 | $10,100 | 96 | 15.66 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez BOS | @ BAL | $8,500 | 102 | 28.79 | $8,000 | 102 | 14.83 |
| Trevor Richards MIA | vs PIT | $8,700 | 104 | 28.78 | $9,000 | 103 | 14.69 |
| Steven Brault PIT | @ MIA | $6,200 | 112 | 27.52 | $6,400 | 114 | 14.70 |
| Tyler Mahle CIN | vs TEX | $7,400 | 98 | 27.21 | $6,700 | 97 | 14.31 |
| Lucas Giolito CHW | vs NYY | $11,400 | 97 | 27.27 | $11,100 | 95 | 14.26 |
| CC Sabathia NYY | @ CHW | $7,100 | 100 | 26.78 | $7,400 | 100 | 13.79 |
| Daniel Ponce de Leon STL | @ NYM | $7,700 | 103 | 26.58 | $8,400 | 103 | 13.44 |
| Andrew Cashner BAL | vs BOS | $6,700 | 98 | 25.74 | $5,500 | 98 | 13.28 |
| Drew Pomeranz SFG | vs MIL | $6,500 | 101 | 25.18 | $6,200 | 101 | 12.78 |
| Nick Pivetta PHI | @ ATL | $7,900 | 96 | 23.96 | $8,600 | 95 | 11.72 |
| Kyle Hendricks CHC | @ LAD | $10,100 | 89 | 23.82 | $9,800 | 87 | 11.46 |
| Ryan Carpenter DET | vs CLE | $5,900 | 99 | 23.33 | $4,800 | 100 | 11.44 |
| Chris Bassitt OAK | vs SEA | $7,500 | 92 | 21.14 | $7,800 | 92 | 10.79 |
| Aaron Sanchez TOR | @ HOU | $6,100 | 92 | 20.30 | $4,600 | 89 | 9.20 |
| Cal Quantrill SDP | @ COL | $6,300 | 87 | 19.26 | $5,000 | 86 | 8.98 |
| Marco Gonzales SEA | @ OAK | $6,600 | 88 | 18.55 | $5,300 | 86 | 8.37 |
| Brad Keller KCR | @ MIN | $6,900 | 86 | 18.50 | $5,800 | 84 | 8.25 |
** Indicates that the pitcher listed will follow an “Opener”
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list and where the Matchup Rating is below 90. While not always the case, typically when a pitcher scores a low total (perhaps even negative) that means they are probably getting lit up by the opposing lineup.
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