Here are projected scores for tonight’s DFS pitchers – May 23, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- Strange day where the bulk of the games are this afternoon. Only two games start after 6pm!
- I can’t believe I’m saying this but I’m going to go with Boyd tonight vs. the Marlins. The Tigers haven’t shown up for this series at all… but I’m going to trust my process.
- (Small sample size alert!) Plutko shows as high on the list and that is mainly because of his lone start against Baltimore on Saturday where he struck out 4 and allowed only 1 ER in 6 innings. There is a very good chance his start tonight against Tampa goes poorly (Matchup Rating 91/89 indicates it is more in the hitters favor than the pitcher’s).
- As for stacking options… Yankees. Astros and Red Sox appear to have best matchups.
- Few notes: Tampa hasn’t made it official who they are starting but it appears they will have a bullpen day. The Twins @ Angels makeup game isn’t offered on either FanDuel or DraftKings.
DFS Pitchers – May 23, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Stephen Strasburg WSN | @ NYM | $11,000 | 108 | 45.04 | $11,100 | 108 | 25.93 |
| Matthew Boyd DET | vs MIA | $9,500 | 114 | 43.58 | $10,300 | 116 | 24.84 |
| Jordan Lyles PIT | vs COL | $9,000 | 104 | 38.13 | $8,500 | 105 | 21.51 |
| Adam Plutko CLE | vs TBR | $7,600 | 91 | 33.82 | $7,400 | 89 | 19.38 |
| Jon Lester CHC | vs PHI | $8,500 | 105 | 34.44 | $8,300 | 105 | 18.43 |
| Madison Bumgarner SFG | vs ATL | $8,700 | 100 | 33.61 | $9,300 | 99 | 17.75 |
| Lucas Giolito CHW | @ HOU | $8,400 | 90 | 30.69 | $8,400 | 86 | 16.56 |
| Masahiro Tanaka NYY | @ BAL | $9,800 | 97 | 30.73 | $9,300 | 97 | 16.50 |
| Kevin Gausman ATL | @ SFG | $8,000 | 112 | 28.31 | $8,300 | 116 | 15.38 |
| Aaron Nola PHI | @ CHC | $9,100 | 98 | 29.28 | $9,700 | 96 | 14.57 |
| Steven Matz NYM | vs WSN | $7,300 | 107 | 27.84 | $7,300 | 108 | 14.96 |
| Trevor Richards MIA | @ DET | $6,700 | 111 | 28.70 | $7,500 | 113 | 14.01 |
| Corbin Martin HOU | vs CHW | $8,300 | 107 | 26.26 | $9,300 | 109 | 14.76 |
| Dylan Bundy BAL | vs NYY | $6,800 | 88 | 22.40 | $6,800 | 87 | 11.62 |
| Antonio Senzatela COL | @ PIT | $6,500 | 102 | 22.51 | $6,400 | 103 | 10.75 |
| Ryan Weber BOS | @ TOR | $5,500 | 107 | 14.97 | $5,900 | 110 | 8.80 |
| Clayton Richard TOR | vs BOS | $6,300 | 96 | 12.74 | $6,500 | 95 | 6.51 |
** Indicates that the pitcher listed will follow an “Opener”
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list where the Matchup Rating is below 90. While not always the case, typically when a pitcher scores a low total (perhaps even negative) that means they are probably getting lit up by the opposing lineup.
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