Here are projected scores for tonight’s DFS pitchers – May 22, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- A little bonus content today! I’ve included the early slate games.
- For the early slate I like the matchups for Davies and/or Kelly. For stacks I’m looking at the Mariners and Cardinals.
- In the Main Slate I’ll be looking at either paying up for Cole in a very enticing matchup or paying down for Hamels.
- The Astros, Yankees and Twins look to be the most stackable lineups tonight but they’ll be priced accordingly.
- Few notes: Both Pittsburgh and Tampa will be using openers and it is unclear who will follow the openers, so I’ve removed them from the chart below.
DFS Pitchers – Early Slate on May 22, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Luis Castillo CIN | @ MIL | $10,000 | 106 | 45.26 | $11,100 | 105 | 26.01 |
| Frankie Montas OAK | @ CLE | $8,700 | 104 | 37.27 | $9,500 | 103 | 20.03 |
| Zach Davies MIL | vs CIN | $8,600 | 110 | 34.89 | $8,600 | 113 | 19.31 |
| Merrill Kelly ARI | @ SDP | $8,000 | 110 | 29.65 | $6,900 | 113 | 15.01 |
| Jefry Rodriguez CLE | vs OAK | $7,000 | 90 | 24.59 | $7,300 | 89 | 12.18 |
| Marco Gonzales SEA | @ TEX | $6,900 | 88 | 24.05 | $7,100 | 87 | 11.72 |
| Michael Wacha STL | vs KCR | $7,500 | 100 | 22.23 | $6,600 | 100 | 10.84 |
| Brad Keller KCR | @ STL | $6,200 | 92 | 21.87 | $6,700 | 90 | 9.65 |
| Eric Lauer SDP | vs ARI | $6,700 | 95 | 19.94 | $6,400 | 95 | 10.01 |
| ** Adrian Sampson TEX | vs SEA | $5,800 | 85 | 11.53 | $5,000 | 84 | 5.06 |
DFS Pitchers – Main Slate on May 22, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp | | | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Gerrit Cole HOU | vs CHW | $11,700 | 111 | 49.08 | $12,000 | 113 | 28.47 |
| Max Scherzer WSN | @ NYM | $11,100 | 104 | 43.42 | $11,100 | 104 | 23.59 |
| Jacob deGrom NYM | vs WSN | $10,800 | 108 | 39.17 | $10,500 | 109 | 21.59 |
| Cole Hamels CHC | vs PHI | $8,400 | 105 | 36.39 | $9,500 | 105 | 19.85 |
| Kenta Maeda LAD | @ TBR | $8,700 | 99 | 32.60 | $9,200 | 98 | 17.80 |
| Cole Irvin PHI | @ CHC | $8,100 | 95 | 32.45 | $6,800 | 94 | 17.02 |
| Martin Perez MIN | @ LAA | $9,400 | 98 | 31.63 | $8,700 | 96 | 16.71 |
| Max Fried ATL | @ SFG | $9,000 | 110 | 30.07 | $8,500 | 113 | 16.69 |
| Jon Gray COL | @ PIT | $7,900 | 103 | 30.02 | $9,200 | 104 | 15.57 |
| Rick Porcello BOS | @ TOR | $7,800 | 103 | 26.87 | $8,200 | 106 | 13.56 |
| Aaron Sanchez TOR | vs BOS | $7,200 | 99 | 26.01 | $7,200 | 99 | 13.20 |
| CC Sabathia NYY | @ BAL | $7,500 | 102 | 24.67 | $7,400 | 102 | 13.65 |
| Adam Wainwright STL | vs KCR | $7,400 | 100 | 25.06 | $7,800 | 101 | 12.12 |
| Jose Urena MIA | @ DET | $7,100 | 109 | 25.63 | $6,200 | 111 | 11.57 |
| Jeff Samardzija SFG | vs ATL | $6,000 | 102 | 22.69 | $6,400 | 102 | 12.37 |
| Homer Bailey KCR | @ STL | $6,500 | 94 | 20.43 | $6,300 | 92 | 9.99 |
| Daniel Norris DET | vs MIA | $6,800 | 110 | 19.50 | $6,900 | 113 | 9.98 |
| Matt Harvey LAA | vs MIN | $6,500 | 86 | 15.87 | $5,500 | 83 | 6.73 |
| Ivan Nova CHW | @ HOU | $6,600 | 83 | 13.75 | $4,400 | 79 | 4.30 |
| Dan Straily BAL | vs NYY | $5,500 | 85 | 6.26 | $4,800 | 84 | 1.21 |
** Indicates that the pitcher listed will follow an “Opener”
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list where the Matchup Rating is below 90. While not always the case, typically when a pitcher scores a low total (perhaps even negative) that means they are probably getting lit up by the opposing lineup.
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