- Soroka will probably be chalk tonight and deservedly so. The Giants are in the bottom five in wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP at home.
- A good pivot on DraftKings is Weaver. The Padres have a 0.275 wOBA and 26.9 K% against RHP at home. Both marks are 4th worst in MLB.
- A good pivot on FanDuel is Minor. He’s been a revaluation so far and the Mariners are in the lower half of MLB in wOBA, ISO and K%.
- The Rangers and Twins will be who I try to stack when building my lineups.
- Few notes: The White Sox will be going with a bullpen game tonight and Suarez is available on FanDuel… not that you would want to use him anyways.
DFS Pitchers – May 20, 2019
|Salary||Matchup Rating||Projected Score||Salary||Matchup Rating||Projected Score|
|RHP Mike Soroka ATL||@ SFG||$10,000||114||45.42||$9,200||117||25.88|
|LHP Patrick Corbin WSN||@ NYM||$10,800||106||44.99||$10,900||106||24.87|
|RHP Chris Paddack SDP||vs ARI||$10,300||104||37.44||$9,500||105||22.35|
|RHP Luke Weaver ARI||@ SDP||$9,600||114||38.50||$8,500||118||21.62|
|LHP Mike Minor TEX||vs SEA||$8,800||102||38.06||$9,700||102||21.22|
|RHP Jake Arrieta PHI||@ CHC||$7,400||99||30.95||$7,800||98||15.10|
|RHP Jake Odorizzi MIN||@ LAA||$9,000||89||29.04||$8,200||87||15.91|
|RHP Brad Peacock HOU||vs CHW||$7,800||106||27.07||$8,900||106||14.94|
|RHP Yu Darvish CHC||vs PHI||$8,700||101||26.25||$8,600||100||13.59|
|LHP J.A. Happ NYY||@ BAL||$8,300||104||24.96||$8,000||106||13.11|
|RHP Andrew Cashner BAL||vs NYY||$7,300||95||25.13||$5,600||94||12.78|
|RHP Mike Leake SEA||@ TEX||$7,000||86||24.33||$6,600||84||11.37|
|RHP Felix Pena LAA||vs MIN||$6,800||86||20.97||$7,500||83||11.84|
|LHP Andrew Suarez SFG||vs ATL||–||102||13.53||$7,800||101||6.95|
|RHP Drew Gagnon NYM||vs WSN||$5,500||109||9.23||$7,100||109||5.28|
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list. In a very rough, small sample size study I found a correlation of about -0.75 from a starting pitcher’s points in the game to the total points of the opposing lineup in the same game
This means that as the pitcher’s score increases or decreases, the opposite tends to happen for the opposing lineup. This makes sense. If a pitcher is getting rocked (low point total) then someone on the opposing lineup is doing the rocking (high point total).