Here are projected scores for tonight’s DFS pitchers – May 17, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- DeGrom has quite a tasty matchup tonight but you’ll have to pay for it.
- Do we trust Cole Irvin tonight? He’s only faced 27 MLB batters this year.
- Like last night, I’ll probably use one of the starters from the Pirates at Padres game.
- The Rangers are taking a page out of the Rays playbook and appear to be going with an opener for this weekend’s series against the Cardinals. Sampson should get the bulk of work tonight… and stacking the Cardinals against him could reap rewards.
DFS Pitchers – May 17, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| RHP Jacob deGrom NYM | @ MIA | $12,000 | 122 | 48.89 | $11,400 | 126 | 28.13 |
| LHP Cole Irvin PHI | vs COL | $7,600 | 110 | 47.32 | $7,000 | 111 | 26.88 |
| RHP Gerrit Cole HOU | @ BOS | $10,500 | 94 | 42.32 | $10,700 | 93 | 23.92 |
| RHP Max Scherzer WSN | vs CHC | $10,800 | 94 | 39.59 | $11,100 | 93 | 21.46 |
| RHP Jordan Lyles PIT | @ SDP | $8,500 | 112 | 36.34 | $8,100 | 114 | 20.57 |
| LHP Cole Hamels CHC | @ WSN | $9,300 | 103 | 36.34 | $9,700 | 104 | 20.14 |
| RHP Frankie Montas OAK | @ DET | $8,800 | 111 | 36.67 | $8,800 | 112 | 19.46 |
| LHP Martin Perez MIN | @ SEA | $9,500 | 98 | 29.98 | $8,600 | 98 | 16.16 |
| LHP Joey Lucchesi SDP | vs PIT | $6,200 | 115 | 28.63 | $8,200 | 117 | 16.06 |
| RHP Jon Gray COL | @ PHI | $8,200 | 99 | 29.54 | $8,500 | 99 | 15.21 |
| RHP Aaron Sanchez TOR | @ CHW | $7,900 | 106 | 29.30 | $6,900 | 108 | 15.12 |
| RHP Jefry Rodriguez CLE | vs BAL | $7,400 | 102 | 28.72 | $6,800 | 102 | 14.30 |
| LHP Marco Gonzales SEA | vs MIN | $7,100 | 95 | 27.43 | $7,800 | 92 | 13.47 |
| LHP Max Fried ATL | vs MIL | $8,300 | 102 | 26.23 | $8,300 | 101 | 13.87 |
| RHP Anthony DeSclafani CIN | vs LAD | $7,500 | 92 | 26.20 | $7,700 | 89 | 13.76 |
| RHP Yonny Chirinos TBR | @ NYY | $6,500 | 96 | 25.26 | $7,600 | 95 | 14.10 |
| RHP Trevor Richards MIA | vs NYM | $6,400 | 104 | 25.99 | $7,200 | 103 | 12.50 |
| RHP Merrill Kelly ARI | vs SFG | $7,700 | 98 | 25.46 | $6,700 | 100 | 12.47 |
| RHP Jeff Samardzija SFG | @ ARI | $6,000 | 97 | 23.50 | $7,500 | 97 | 13.13 |
| LHP CC Sabathia NYY | vs TBR | $6,700 | 101 | 23.39 | $7,100 | 100 | 13.10 |
| RHP Dylan Bundy BAL | @ CLE | $6,800 | 102 | 23.57 | $7,300 | 102 | 11.91 |
| RHP Miles Mikolas STL | @ TEX | $8,000 | 87 | 23.50 | $8,000 | 86 | 11.93 |
| RHP Rick Porcello BOS | vs HOU | $7,800 | 87 | 22.40 | $7,900 | 84 | 10.67 |
| RHP Jhoulys Chacin MIL | @ ATL | $7,300 | 97 | 21.14 | $6,600 | 96 | 10.49 |
| LHP Rich Hill LAD | @ CIN | $8,100 | 87 | 20.39 | $9,000 | 89 | 10.20 |
| RHP Brad Keller KCR | @ LAA | $6,600 | 86 | 21.28 | $6,000 | 83 | 9.56 |
| RHP Ivan Nova CHW | vs TOR | $7,200 | 103 | 20.76 | $6,200 | 105 | 8.33 |
| LHP Daniel Norris DET | vs OAK | $6,900 | 90 | 17.62 | $7,400 | 89 | 9.00 |
| LHP Matt Harvey LAA | vs KCR | $6,100 | 98 | 16.31 | $6,100 | 98 | 6.74 |
| RHP Adrian Sampson TEX | vs STL | $6,100 | 90 | 11.43 | $5,200 | 90 | 4.87 |
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list. In a very rough, small sample size study I found a correlation of about -0.75 from a starting pitcher’s points in the game to the total points of the opposing lineup in the same game
This means that as the pitcher’s score increases or decreases, the opposite tends to happen for the opposing lineup. This makes sense. If a pitcher is getting rocked (low point total) then someone on the opposing lineup is doing the rocking (high point total).
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