Here are projected scores for tonight’s DFS pitchers – May 16, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- Nice, cheap option tonight with Eric Lauer vs. Pittsburgh Pirates that I wrote about it in Straight Cheese last week. In what appears to be a possible pitching “duel”, Trevor Williams also looks like an option.
- Not sure I see any reason to pay up for Luis Castillo tonight.
- Minnesota Twins are looking very stackable vs. Erik Swanson.
DFS Pitchers – May 16, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| RHP Trevor Williams PIT | @ SDP | $7,900 | 138 | 41.46 | $8,300 | 147 | 22.20 |
| RHP Luis Castillo CIN | vs CHC | $10,300 | 85 | 37.14 | $10,600 | 79 | 19.84 |
| RHP Marcus Stroman TOR | @ CHW | $7,400 | 124 | 36.35 | $7,700 | 129 | 19.30 |
| LHP Eric Lauer SDP | vs PIT | $6,700 | 145 | 29.95 | $6,800 | 153 | 15.74 |
| LHP Jose Quintana CHC | @ CIN | $8,900 | 80 | 26.06 | $9,200 | 83 | 14.13 |
| RHP Adam Wainwright STL | @ ATL | $7,700 | 92 | 25.42 | $7,500 | 89 | 12.39 |
| LHP Julio Teheran ATL | vs STL | $8,100 | 82 | 24.16 | $8,000 | 76 | 11.68 |
| RHP Michael Pineda MIN | @ SEA | $6,500 | 109 | 22.76 | $7,300 | 110 | 11.09 |
| RHP Erik Swanson SEA | vs MIN | $6,300 | 60 | 10.16 | $7,100 | 53 | 4.23 |
| RHP Dylan Covey CHW | vs TOR | $5,500 | 113 | 7.38 | $6,200 | 120 | 2.40 |
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed by hitters vs. starting pitchers (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list. In a very rough, small sample size study I found a correlation of about -0.75 from a starting pitcher’s points in the game to the total points of the opposing lineup in the same game
This means that as the pitcher’s score increases or decreases, the opposite tends to happen for the opposing lineup. This makes sense. If a pitcher is getting rocked (low point total) then someone on the opposing lineup is doing the rocking (high point total).
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