My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.
How to Read the Charts
The Cincinnati Reds are facing a LHP at home (Eric Lauer SDP who has faced 419 batters). On FanDuel the Reds are currently putting up 2.35 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. LHP at home and Eric Lauer is currently allowing 115% more PPA than the MLB average (2.12 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.70 (2.35 x 115%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.
When Opposing Pitcher indicates TBD/Bullpen or hasn’t faced any MLB batters this season the lineup’s PPA shown is their overall PPA at home or away.
It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.
|Lineup||Situation||Opposing Pitcher||Batters Faced|
|FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12||DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.62|
|PPA x %||Mod PPA||Dif||PPA x %||Mod PPA||Dif|
|LHP at home||Eric Lauer SDP||419||2.35 x 115%||2.70||+0.35||1.77 x 115%||2.03||+0.26|
|RHP at home||Shane Bieber CLE||361||2.32 x 112%||2.59||+0.27||1.76 x 113%||1.99||+0.23|
|RHP on road||Sam Gaviglio TOR||443||2.16 x 112%||2.41||+0.25||1.65 x 112%||1.84||+0.19|
|RHP on road||Stephen Strasburg WSN||419||2.17 x 102%||2.20||+0.04||1.66 x 102%||1.69||+0.03|
|RHP at home||Kyle Hendricks CHC||679||2.27 x 94%||2.14||-0.13||1.72 x 96%||1.65||-0.07|
|RHP on road||Luis Castillo CIN||606||1.85 x 110%||2.04||+0.19||1.43 x 109%||1.56||+0.13|
|RHP on road||Zack Greinke ARI||706||2.12 x 85%||1.81||-0.32||1.62 x 87%||1.42||-0.21|
|RHP at home||Anibal Sanchez ATL||442||2.09 x 87%||1.81||-0.28||1.58 x 87%||1.38||-0.20|