My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.
How to Read the Charts
The New York Yankees are facing a RHP at home (Alex Cobb BAL who has faced 467 batters). On FanDuel the Yankees are currently putting up 2.52 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Alex Cobb is currently allowing 131% more PPA than the MLB average (2.115 PPA). Their modified PPA is 3.30 (2.52 x 131%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.
It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.
| Lineup | Situation | Opposing Pitcher | Batters Faced |  |
 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.115 | DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.613 | ||||||||
| PPA x % | Mod PPA | Dif | PPA x % | Mod PPA | Dif | ||||
 |
RHP at home | Alex Cobb BAL | 467 | 2.52 x 131% | 3.30 | +0.78 | 1.89 x 130% | 2.46 | +0.57 |
 |
RHP on road | Nick Kingham PIT | 258 | 2.23 x 113% | 2.53 | +0.30 | 1.70 x 112% | 1.90 | +0.20 |
 |
RHP at home | Jakob Junis KCR | 485 | 2.16 x 115% | 2.49 | +0.33 | 1.66 x 115% | 1.91 | +0.25 |
 |
RHP at home | Pablo Lopez MIA | 121 | 2.10 x 115% | 2.41 | +0.31 | 1.60 x 113% | 1.81 | +0.21 |
 |
RHP at home | Nick Tropeano LAA | 271 | 2.01 x 118% | 2.37 | +0.36 | 1.55 x 116% | 1.81 | +0.25 |
 |
LHP at home | Cole Hamels CHC | 502 | 2.06 x 116% | 2.38 | +0.32 | 1.57 x 114% | 1.80 | +0.23 |
 |
LHP on road | Tommy Milone WSN | 22 | 2.02 x 114% | 2.30 | +0.28 | 1.53 x 118% | 1.81 | +0.28 |
 |
RHP at home | Carlos Carrasco CLE | 472 | 2.32 x 97% | 2.26 | -0.07 | 1.75 x 98% | 1.72 | -0.03 |
 |
RHP at home | Sal Romano CIN | 487 | 1.97 x 114% | 2.25 | +0.28 | 1.52 x 113% | 1.72 | +0.20 |
 |
LHP on road | Wade LeBlanc SEA | 416 | 2.38 x 93% | 2.22 | -0.17 | 1.81 x 95% | 1.72 | -0.09 |
 |
RHP on road | Tyler Glasnow TBR | 243 | 2.26 x 100% | 2.26 | +0.00 | 1.72 x 98% | 1.68 | -0.04 |
 |
RHP on road | Dylan Covey CHW | 309 | 1.96 x 114% | 2.23 | +0.27 | 1.51 x 112% | 1.69 | +0.18 |
 |
RHP on road | Luke Weaver STL | 489 | 2.07 x 104% | 2.15 | +0.08 | 1.56 x 104% | 1.63 | +0.07 |
 |
RHP at home | Marcus Stroman TOR | 345 | 1.97 x 109% | 2.15 | +0.18 | 1.50 x 108% | 1.62 | +0.12 |
 |
RHP at home | Chase Anderson MIL | 466 | 2.20 x 96% | 2.12 | -0.08 | 1.67 x 96% | 1.61 | -0.07 |
 |
RHP on road | Mike Fiers DET | 495 | 2.10 x 98% | 2.06 | -0.04 | 1.60 x 101% | 1.61 | +0.01 |
 |
LHP on road | Rich Hill LAD | 294 | 2.06 x 97% | 2.01 | -0.05 | 1.57 x 98% | 1.53 | -0.03 |
 |
LHP on road | Adalberto Mejia MIN | 56 | 2.25 x 87% | 1.95 | -0.30 | 1.72 x 91% | 1.56 | -0.16 |
 |
RHP on road | Sonny Gray NYY | 450 | 1.86 x 107% | 1.98 | +0.12 | 1.43 x 106% | 1.51 | +0.08 |
 |
RHP at home | Noah Syndergaard NYM | 314 | 2.29 x 83% | 1.90 | -0.38 | 1.73 x 87% | 1.51 | -0.23 |
 |
LHP on road | Sean Manaea OAK | 545 | 2.11 x 88% | 1.85 | -0.26 | 1.59 x 89% | 1.42 | -0.17 |
 |
LHP at home | Dallas Keuchel HOU | 575 | 1.91 x 91% | 1.75 | -0.16 | 1.49 x 93% | 1.38 | -0.11 |
 |
RHP on road | Anibal Sanchez ATL | 316 | 1.94 x 88% | 1.71 | -0.24 | 1.50 x 88% | 1.33 | -0.18 |
 |
LHP at home | Kyle Freeland COL | 528 | 1.89 x 86% | 1.62 | -0.27 | 1.45 x 87% | 1.27 | -0.18 |
Facebook
Twitter
Leave a Reply