My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.
How to Read the Charts
The Atlanta Braves are facing a LHP on road (Jason Vargas NYM who has faced 199 batters). On FanDuel the Braves are currently putting up 2.37 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. LHP on road and Jason Vargas is currently allowing 148% more PPA than the MLB average (2.116 PPA). Their modified PPA is 3.52 (2.37 x 148%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.
It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.
| Lineup | Situation | Opposing Pitcher | Batters Faced |  |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.116 | DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.614 | ||||||||
| PPA x % | Mod PPA | Dif | PPA x % | Mod PPA | Dif | ||||
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LHP on road | Jason Vargas NYM | 199 | 2.37 x 148% | 3.52 | +1.15 | 1.83 x 146% | 2.67 | +0.85 |
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LHP at home | CC Sabathia NYY | 453 | 2.66 x 98% | 2.62 | -0.04 | 1.99 x 99% | 1.98 | -0.01 |
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RHP at home | Tyler Mahle CIN | 477 | 2.28 x 114% | 2.60 | +0.32 | 1.73 x 114% | 1.97 | +0.24 |
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RHP at home | Pablo Lopez MIA | 121 | 2.23 x 115% | 2.56 | +0.33 | 1.68 x 113% | 1.90 | +0.22 |
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RHP at home | Andrew Cashner BAL | 488 | 2.21 x 111% | 2.46 | +0.25 | 1.66 x 112% | 1.85 | +0.19 |
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RHP on road | Felix Hernandez SEA | 500 | 2.13 x 116% | 2.47 | +0.34 | 1.62 x 114% | 1.84 | +0.23 |
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LHP at home | Robbie Erlin SDP | 227 | 2.63 x 92% | 2.43 | -0.20 | 1.98 x 94% | 1.86 | -0.12 |
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RHP on road | Yovani Gallardo TEX | 183 | 1.88 x 125% | 2.35 | +0.47 | 1.45 x 122% | 1.77 | +0.32 |
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LHP on road | Brian Johnson BOS | 258 | 2.33 x 93% | 2.17 | -0.17 | 1.78 x 95% | 1.70 | -0.08 |
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TBD at home | TBD/Bullpen TOR | – | 2.17 x 100% | 2.17 | +0.00 | 1.66 x 100% | 1.66 | +0.00 |
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RHP on road | Reynaldo Lopez CHW | 529 | 1.98 x 110% | 2.17 | +0.19 | 1.53 x 108% | 1.65 | +0.12 |
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RHP on road | Nick Pivetta PHI | 462 | 1.94 x 108% | 2.09 | +0.15 | 1.50 x 108% | 1.61 | +0.11 |
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RHP at home | Antonio Senzatela COL | 179 | 1.99 x 106% | 2.11 | +0.12 | 1.53 x 105% | 1.60 | +0.07 |
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LHP at home | Andrew Heaney LAA | 479 | 2.15 x 96% | 2.07 | -0.08 | 1.64 x 96% | 1.58 | -0.06 |
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TBD on road | TBD/Bullpen TBR | – | 1.99 x 100% | 1.99 | +0.00 | 1.53 x 100% | 1.53 | +0.00 |
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RHP at home | Jhoulys Chacin MIL | 533 | 2.22 x 87% | 1.94 | -0.28 | 1.69 x 87% | 1.47 | -0.22 |
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LHP at home | Madison Bumgarner SFG | 259 | 2.17 x 86% | 1.86 | -0.31 | 1.66 x 86% | 1.42 | -0.24 |
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RHP at home | Brad Keller KCR | 319 | 2.17 x 84% | 1.82 | -0.35 | 1.67 x 85% | 1.42 | -0.24 |
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LHP on road | Mike Montgomery CHC | 372 | 1.85 x 93% | 1.73 | -0.13 | 1.43 x 94% | 1.35 | -0.08 |
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LHP on road | Clayton Kershaw LAD | 360 | 2.07 x 81% | 1.67 | -0.40 | 1.58 x 83% | 1.31 | -0.26 |
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RHP on road | Zack Greinke ARI | 548 | 1.87 x 85% | 1.58 | -0.28 | 1.45 x 88% | 1.27 | -0.18 |
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RHP on road | Miles Mikolas STL | 525 | 2.06 x 77% | 1.58 | -0.48 | 1.56 x 80% | 1.24 | -0.31 |
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RHP on road | Max Scherzer WSN | 582 | 2.10 x 75% | 1.57 | -0.52 | 1.60 x 76% | 1.22 | -0.39 |
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RHP at home | Mike Foltynewicz ATL | 468 | 1.79 x 87% | 1.55 | -0.24 | 1.37 x 87% | 1.19 | -0.18 |
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