My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.
How to Read the Charts
The Washington Nationals are facing a RHP at home (Anthony DeSclafani CIN who has faced 225 batters). On FanDuel the Nationals are currently putting up 2.31 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Anthony DeSclafani is currently allowing 124% more PPA than the MLB average (2.119 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.86 (2.31 x 124%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.
It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.
| Lineup | Situation | Opposing Pitcher | Batters Faced |  |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.119 | DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.616 | ||||||||
| PPA x % | Mod PPA | Dif | PPA x % | Mod PPA | Dif | ||||
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RHP at home | Anthony DeSclafani CIN | 225 | 2.31 x 124% | 2.86 | +0.55 | 1.75 x 123% | 2.16 | +0.41 |
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RHP at home | David Hess BAL | 223 | 2.27 x 123% | 2.79 | +0.52 | 1.70 x 122% | 2.07 | +0.37 |
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LHP on road | Brett Anderson OAK | 161 | 2.09 x 129% | 2.69 | +0.60 | 1.60 x 130% | 2.09 | +0.48 |
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RHP at home | Jaime Barria LAA | 316 | 2.56 x 99% | 2.54 | -0.02 | 1.92 x 100% | 1.93 | +0.01 |
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RHP at home | Lucas Giolito CHW | 514 | 2.04 x 123% | 2.49 | +0.46 | 1.57 x 118% | 1.85 | +0.29 |
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RHP at home | German Marquez COL | 504 | 2.21 x 110% | 2.44 | +0.23 | 1.68 x 110% | 1.84 | +0.17 |
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RHP at home | Chris Stratton SFG | 423 | 2.09 x 116% | 2.43 | +0.34 | 1.58 x 116% | 1.83 | +0.25 |
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LHP on road | Alex Wood LAD | 487 | 2.43 x 91% | 2.23 | -0.21 | 1.86 x 92% | 1.71 | -0.14 |
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RHP on road | Jake Odorizzi MIN | 491 | 1.96 x 111% | 2.18 | +0.22 | 1.51 x 110% | 1.66 | +0.16 |
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RHP on road | Chris Archer PIT | 413 | 2.12 x 103% | 2.18 | +0.06 | 1.61 x 104% | 1.67 | +0.06 |
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RHP at home | Trevor Richards MIA | 325 | 2.24 x 96% | 2.16 | -0.08 | 1.69 x 96% | 1.62 | -0.07 |
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RHP at home | Luis Severino NYY | 550 | 2.55 x 82% | 2.08 | -0.46 | 1.93 x 84% | 1.62 | -0.31 |
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RHP on road | Rick Porcello BOS | 563 | 2.20 x 95% | 2.10 | -0.10 | 1.67 x 96% | 1.60 | -0.07 |
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RHP at home | Heath Fillmyer KCR | 113 | 2.30 x 90% | 2.06 | -0.23 | 1.74 x 90% | 1.56 | -0.18 |
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RHP on road | Mike Clevinger CLE | 547 | 2.23 x 90% | 2.01 | -0.22 | 1.70 x 91% | 1.55 | -0.15 |
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TBD on road | TBD/Bullpen TBR | – | 2.00 x 100% | 2.00 | +0.00 | 1.54 x 100% | 1.54 | +0.00 |
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RHP at home | John Gant STL | 253 | 2.15 x 94% | 2.02 | -0.13 | 1.64 x 91% | 1.50 | -0.14 |
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RHP on road | Ariel Jurado TEX | 43 | 1.92 x 103% | 1.97 | +0.05 | 1.48 x 101% | 1.49 | +0.01 |
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LHP on road | Gio Gonzalez WSN | 497 | 2.02 x 95% | 1.92 | -0.09 | 1.57 x 95% | 1.50 | -0.08 |
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LHP at home | Blaine Hardy DET | 258 | 1.99 x 96% | 1.91 | -0.08 | 1.51 x 97% | 1.47 | -0.04 |
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RHP on road | Vince Velasquez PHI | 450 | 1.93 x 99% | 1.90 | -0.03 | 1.50 x 97% | 1.46 | -0.04 |
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RHP on road | Junior Guerra MIL | 458 | 2.04 x 94% | 1.91 | -0.13 | 1.55 x 94% | 1.45 | -0.10 |
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LHP on road | Marco Gonzales SEA | 508 | 2.13 x 88% | 1.88 | -0.25 | 1.61 x 91% | 1.46 | -0.15 |
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LHP at home | Ryan Borucki TOR | 153 | 1.92 x 93% | 1.79 | -0.13 | 1.49 x 95% | 1.42 | -0.07 |
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RHP at home | Justin Verlander HOU | 578 | 2.35 x 74% | 1.74 | -0.60 | 1.78 x 76% | 1.36 | -0.42 |
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RHP at home | Anibal Sanchez ATL | 316 | 1.79 x 88% | 1.57 | -0.22 | 1.37 x 88% | 1.21 | -0.16 |
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LHP on road | Patrick Corbin ARI | 542 | 1.84 x 82% | 1.51 | -0.33 | 1.42 x 82% | 1.17 | -0.25 |
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RHP on road | Jacob deGrom NYM | 545 | 2.23 x 66% | 1.46 | -0.77 | 1.70 x 68% | 1.16 | -0.54 |
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