My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.
How to Read the Charts
The Toronto Blue Jays are facing a RHP on road (David Hess BAL who has faced 315 batters). On FanDuel the Blue Jays are currently putting up 2.13 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP on road and David Hess is currently allowing 120% more PPA than the MLB average (2.117 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.56 (2.13 x 120%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.
It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.
Main Slate
| Lineup | Situation | Opposing Pitcher | Batters Faced |  |
 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 | DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.62 | ||||||||
| PPA x % | Mod PPA | Dif | PPA x % | Mod PPA | Dif | ||||
 |
RHP on road | David Hess BAL | 315 | 2.13 x 120% | 2.56 | +0.43 | 1.62 x 118% | 1.91 | +0.29 |
 |
RHP on road | Chris Stratton SFG | 468 | 2.10 x 119% | 2.50 | +0.40 | 1.59 x 119% | 1.88 | +0.29 |
 |
RHP on road | Odrisamer Despaigne LAA | 128 | 2.02 x 124% | 2.49 | +0.48 | 1.53 x 120% | 1.84 | +0.31 |
 |
RHP at home | Sam Gaviglio TOR | 418 | 2.19 x 111% | 2.43 | +0.24 | 1.67 x 111% | 1.86 | +0.19 |
 |
RHP at home | Jon Gray COL | 598 | 2.34 x 103% | 2.42 | +0.08 | 1.77 x 103% | 1.83 | +0.05 |
 |
RHP at home | Stephen Strasburg WSN | 370 | 2.19 x 104% | 2.29 | +0.10 | 1.66 x 104% | 1.74 | +0.07 |
 |
LHP at home | Brett Anderson OAK | 252 | 2.25 x 96% | 2.16 | -0.09 | 1.71 x 98% | 1.68 | -0.03 |
 |
RHP on road | Zach Eflin PHI | 421 | 2.10 x 100% | 2.10 | +0.00 | 1.60 x 100% | 1.61 | +0.01 |
 |
LHP on road | Jon Lester CHC | 615 | 2.08 x 100% | 2.08 | +0.00 | 1.58 x 101% | 1.59 | +0.01 |
 |
RHP on road | Masahiro Tanaka NYY | 483 | 2.05 x 101% | 2.07 | +0.02 | 1.57 x 101% | 1.59 | +0.02 |
 |
LHP at home | Carlos Rodon CHW | 345 | 2.50 x 78% | 1.95 | -0.55 | 1.88 x 77% | 1.46 | -0.43 |
 |
RHP on road | Gerrit Cole HOU | 651 | 2.45 x 79% | 1.93 | -0.53 | 1.86 x 78% | 1.46 | -0.40 |
 |
RHP at home | Noah Syndergaard NYM | 452 | 2.26 x 84% | 1.89 | -0.37 | 1.71 x 87% | 1.48 | -0.23 |
 |
LHP at home | Patrick Corbin ARI | 642 | 2.03 x 80% | 1.62 | -0.42 | 1.57 x 80% | 1.26 | -0.31 |
Leave a Reply