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Stack #2
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Stack #3
Stacking is a well-known DFS strategy. In an effort to identify stack worthy lineups I’ve been tinkering with the idea of looking at the opposing pitcher’s DFS points allowed. Similar to in fantasy football looking at the opposing defense’s fantasy points allowed to running backs to determine which one to start.
My approach is to look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS points per plate appearance. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production. It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.
How to Read the Charts
The Cleveland Indians are facing a RHP at home and in that situation they are currently putting up 2.60 FanDuel and 1.95 DraftKings points per plate appearance or ppa. The opposing pitcher is RHP Anthony DeSclafani CIN who after facing 141 batters is currently allowing 120% more ppa in FanDuel and 120% more ppa in DraftKings than the current MLB average (2.103 on FanDuel and 1.604 on DraftKings). The modified ppa is simply 2.60 x 120% in FanDuel and 1.95 x 120% in DraftKings.
FANDUEL
MLB FanDuel average is 2.103 through yesterday
| Advice | Lineup | Situation | Situational ppa | Pitcher | Batters Faced | Pitcher’s Effect | Modified ppa | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stack | CLE | RHP at home | 2.60 | Anthony DeSclafani CIN | 141 | 120% | 3.12 | 0.52 |
| Stack | LAD | RHP on road | 2.39 | Luis Perdomo SDP | 102 | 127% | 3.04 | 0.65 |
| Stack | BOS | LHP at home | 2.71 | Mike Minor TEX | 381 | 111% | 3.00 | 0.30 |
| Stack | PIT | RHP at home | 2.12 | Jefry Rodriguez WSN | 64 | 121% | 2.56 | 0.44 |
| Stack | WSN | RHP on road | 2.15 | Ivan Nova PIT | 393 | 113% | 2.44 | 0.28 |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Avoid | CIN | RHP on road | 2.02 | Mike Clevinger CLE | 446 | 86% | 1.73 | -0.29 |
| Avoid | KCR | RHP on road | 1.82 | Jose Berrios MIN | 456 | 89% | 1.62 | -0.20 |
| Avoid | TEX | LHP on road | 1.73 | Eduardo Rodriguez BOS | 401 | 93% | 1.60 | -0.13 |
DRAFTKINGS
MLB DraftKings average is 1.604 through yesterday
| Advice | Lineup | Situation | Situational ppa | Pitcher | Batters Faced | Pitcher’s Effect | Modified ppa | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stack | CLE | RHP at home | 1.95 | Anthony DeSclafani CIN | 141 | 120% | 2.34 | 0.39 |
| Stack | LAD | RHP on road | 1.80 | Luis Perdomo SDP | 102 | 125% | 2.25 | 0.45 |
| Stack | BOS | LHP at home | 2.04 | Mike Minor TEX | 381 | 111% | 2.25 | 0.22 |
| Stack | PIT | RHP at home | 1.62 | Jefry Rodriguez WSN | 64 | 117% | 1.89 | 0.27 |
| Stack | WSN | RHP on road | 1.64 | Ivan Nova PIT | 393 | 114% | 1.87 | 0.23 |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Avoid | CIN | RHP on road | 1.55 | Mike Clevinger CLE | 446 | 87% | 1.35 | -0.20 |
| Avoid | KCR | RHP on road | 1.41 | Jose Berrios MIN | 456 | 89% | 1.26 | -0.15 |
| Avoid | TEX | LHP on road | 1.34 | Eduardo Rodriguez BOS | 401 | 94% | 1.26 | -0.08 |
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