Stacking is a well-known DFS strategy. In an effort to identify stack worthy lineups I’ve been tinkering with the idea of looking at the opposing pitcher’s DFS points allowed. Similar to in fantasy football looking at the opposing defense’s fantasy points allowed to running backs to determine which one to start.
My approach is to look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS points per plate appearance. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production. It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.
How to Read the Charts
The Yankees are facing a RHP on road and in that situation they are currently putting up 2.46 FanDuel and 1.85 DraftKings points per plate appearance or ppa. The opposing pitcher is Mike Fiers DET and he is currently allowing 114% more ppa in FanDuel and 116% more ppa in DraftKings than the current MLB average (2.099 on FanDuel and 1.601 on DraftKings). The modified ppa is simply 2.46 x 114% in FanDuel and 1.85 x 116% in DraftKings.
FANDUEL
MLB FanDuel average is 2.099 through yesterday
| Advice | Lineup | Situation | Situational ppa | Pitcher | Pitcher’s Effect | Modified ppa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stack | NYY 7pm | RHP on road | 2.46 | Mike Fiers DET | 114% | 2.81 |
| Stack | ATL | LHP on road | 2.52 | Clayton Richard SDP | 108% | 2.71 |
| Stack | ARI | LHP on road | 2.3 | Derek Holland SFG | 117% | 2.68 |
| Stack | SFG | RHP at home | 2.25 | Zack Godley ARI | 108% | 2.44 |
| Stack | DET 7pm | RHP at home | 2.2 | Domingo German NYY | 110% | 2.43 |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Avoid | DET 1pm | RHP at home | 2.2 | Luis Severino NYY | 69% | 1.53 |
| Avoid | SDP | RHP at home | 1.9 | Julio Teheran ATL | 104% | 1.97 |
| Avoid | LAA | LHP at home | 1.64 | Danny Duffy KCR | 125% | 2.05 |
DRAFTKINGS
MLB DraftKings average is 1.601 through yesterday
| Advice | Lineup | Situation | Situational ppa | Pitcher | Pitcher’s Effect | Modified ppa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stack | NYY 7pm | RHP on road | 1.85 | Mike Fiers DET | 116% | 2.15 |
| Stack | ATL | LHP on road | 1.93 | Clayton Richard SDP | 107% | 2.08 |
| Stack | ARI | LHP on road | 1.75 | Derek Holland SFG | 114% | 1.99 |
| Stack | SFG | RHP at home | 1.72 | Zack Godley ARI | 107% | 1.85 |
| Stack | DET 7pm | RHP at home | 1.68 | Domingo German NYY | 107% | 1.8 |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Avoid | DET 1pm | RHP at home | 1.68 | Luis Severino NYY | 71% | 1.2 |
| Avoid | SDP | RHP at home | 1.45 | Julio Teheran ATL | 103% | 1.49 |
| Avoid | LAA | LHP at home | 1.27 | Danny Duffy KCR | 123% | 1.56 |
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