Stacking is a well-known DFS strategy. In an effort to identify stack worthy lineups I’ve been tinkering with the idea of looking at the opposing pitcher’s DFS points allowed. Similar to in fantasy football looking at the opposing defense’s fantasy points allowed to running backs to determine which one to start.
My approach is to look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS points per plate appearance. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.
How to Read the Charts
The Tigers are facing a LHP at home and in that situation they are currently putting up 2.45 FanDuel and 1.87 DraftKings points per plate appearance or ppa. The opposing pitcher is Jaime Garcia TOR and he is currently allowing 130% more ppa in FanDuel and 128% more ppa in DraftKings than the current MLB average (2.179 on FanDuel and 1.667 on DraftKings). The modified ppa is simply 2.45 x 130% in FanDuel and 1.87 x 128% in DraftKings.
NOTE: as of this posting Tampa Bay will be having a bullpen game starting with Sergio Romo and the Dodgers hadn’t announced their starter. Various sources indicated it could be Dennis Santana making his MLB debut or they may have a bullpen game.
FANDUEL
MLB FanDuel average is 2.179 through yesterday
| Advice | Lineup | Situation | Situational ppa | Pitcher | Pitcher’s Effect | Modified ppa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stack | DET | LHP at home | 2.45 | Jaime Garcia TOR | 130% | 3.18 |
| Stack | NYY | RHP on road | 2.52 | Andrew Cashner BAL | 121% | 3.05 |
| Stack | OAK | RHP on road | 2.52 | Ian Kennedy KCR | 114% | 2.89 |
| Stack | CHC | RHP on road | 2.37 | Zack Wheeler NYM | 110% | 2.62 |
| Stack | CHW | RHP at home | 2.29 | Chase Anderson MIL | 108% | 2.47 |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Avoid | MIA | RHP on road | 1.69 | Clay Buchholz ARI | 63% | 1.07 |
| Avoid | PIT | RHP on road | 2.06 | Miles Mikolas STL | 74% | 1.53 |
| Avoid | TEX | RHP on road | 2.07 | Jaime Barria LAA | 79% | 1.64 |
DRAFTKINGS
MLB DraftKings average is 1.667 through yesterday
| Advice | Lineup | Situation | Situational ppa | Pitcher | Pitcher’s Effect | Modified ppa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stack | DET | LHP at home | 1.87 | Jaime Garcia TOR | 128% | 2.38 |
| Stack | NYY | RHP on road | 1.89 | Andrew Cashner BAL | 120% | 2.28 |
| Stack | OAK | RHP on road | 1.91 | Ian Kennedy KCR | 115% | 2.19 |
| Stack | CHC | RHP on road | 1.8 | Zack Wheeler NYM | 110% | 1.97 |
| Stack | CHW | RHP at home | 1.77 | Chase Anderson MIL | 107% | 1.9 |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Avoid | MIA | RHP on road | 1.32 | Clay Buchholz ARI | 63% | 0.83 |
| Avoid | PIT | RHP on road | 1.59 | Miles Mikolas STL | 78% | 1.24 |
| Avoid | TEX | RHP on road | 1.59 | Jaime Barria LAA | 81% | 1.29 |
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