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Stack #2
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Stack #3
Stacking is a well-known DFS strategy. In an effort to identify stack worthy lineups I’ve been tinkering with the idea of looking at the opposing pitcher’s DFS points allowed. Similar to in fantasy football looking at the opposing defense’s fantasy points allowed to running backs to determine which one to start.
My approach is to look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS points per plate appearance. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production. It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.
How to Read the Charts
The Seattle Mariners are facing a RHP on road and in that situation they are currently putting up 2.16 FanDuel and 1.65 DraftKings points per plate appearance or ppa. The opposing pitcher is RHP Alex Cobb BAL and he is currently allowing 139% more ppa in FanDuel and 139% more ppa in DraftKings than the current MLB average (2.097 on FanDuel and 1.600 on DraftKings). The modified ppa is simply 2.16 x 139% in FanDuel and 1.65 x 139% in DraftKings.
FANDUEL
MLB FanDuel average is 2.097 through yesterday
| Advice | Lineup | Situation | Situational ppa | Pitcher | Pitcher’s Effect | Modified ppa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stack | SEA | RHP on road | 2.16 | Alex Cobb BAL | 139% | 3.02 |
| Stack | ARI | LHP on road | 2.24 | Wei-Yin Chen MIA | 132% | 2.96 |
| Stack | OAK | RHP on road | 2.55 | Mike Fiers DET | 112% | 2.85 |
| Stack | LAD | RHP on road | 2.47 | Zack Wheeler NYM | 102% | 2.51 |
| Stack | BOS | LHP at home | 2.55 | Andrew Heaney LAA | 95% | 2.42 |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Avoid | CHC | LHP on road | 1.77 | Alex Wood LAD | 98% | 1.74 |
| Avoid | BAL | LHP at home | 1.91 | Wade LeBlanc SEA | 90% | 1.71 |
| Avoid | CLE | RHP on road | 1.86 | Jack Flaherty STL | 78% | 1.46 |
DRAFTKINGS
MLB DraftKings average is 1.600 through yesterday
| Advice | Lineup | Situation | Situational ppa | Pitcher | Pitcher’s Effect | Modified ppa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stack | SEA | RHP on road | 1.65 | Alex Cobb BAL | 139% | 2.29 |
| Stack | ARI | LHP on road | 1.70 | Wei-Yin Chen MIA | 130% | 2.21 |
| Stack | OAK | RHP on road | 1.92 | Mike Fiers DET | 114% | 2.19 |
| Stack | LAD | RHP on road | 1.85 | Zack Wheeler NYM | 101% | 1.87 |
| Stack | BOS | LHP at home | 1.93 | Andrew Heaney LAA | 95% | 1.83 |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Avoid | CHC | LHP on road | 1.36 | Alex Wood LAD | 98% | 1.34 |
| Avoid | BAL | LHP at home | 1.50 | Wade LeBlanc SEA | 93% | 1.39 |
| Avoid | CLE | RHP on road | 1.43 | Jack Flaherty STL | 79% | 1.14 |
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