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Stack #2
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Stack #3
Stacking is a well-known DFS strategy. In an effort to identify stack worthy lineups I’ve been tinkering with the idea of looking at the opposing pitcher’s DFS points allowed. Similar to in fantasy football looking at the opposing defense’s fantasy points allowed to running backs to determine which one to start.
My approach is to look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS points per plate appearance. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production. It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.
How to Read the Charts
The Atlanta Braves are facing a LHP at home and in that situation they are currently putting up 2.23 FanDuel and 1.69 DraftKings points per plate appearance or ppa. The opposing pitcher is LHP Matt Harvey CIN and he is currently allowing 119% more ppa in FanDuel and 118% more ppa in DraftKings than the current MLB average (2.098 on FanDuel and 1.600 on DraftKings). The modified ppa is simply 2.23 x 119% in FanDuel and 1.69 x 118% in DraftKings.
FANDUEL
MLB FanDuel average is 2.098 through yesterday
| Advice | Lineup | Situation | Situational ppa | Pitcher | Pitcher’s Effect | Modified ppa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stack | ATL | LHP at home | 2.23 | Matt Harvey CIN | 119% | 2.66 |
| Stack | SFG | RHP at home | 2.30 | Chad Bettis COL | 116% | 2.66 |
| Stack | ARI | RHP on road | 2.07 | Elieser Hernandez MIA | 118% | 2.45 |
| Stack | PIT | LHP on road | 2.33 | Steven Matz NYM | 104% | 2.41 |
| Stack | COL | LHP on road | 2.16 | Derek Holland SFG | 111% | 2.41 |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Avoid | CHC | RHP on road | 2.20 | Ross Stripling LAD | 73% | 1.61 |
| Avoid | PHI | RHP at home | 2.24 | Luis Severino NYY | 69% | 1.55 |
| Avoid | STL | RHP at home | 2.02 | Corey Kluber CLE | 71% | 1.43 |
DRAFTKINGS
MLB DraftKings average is 1.600 through yesterday
| Advice | Lineup | Situation | Situational ppa | Pitcher | Pitcher’s Effect | Modified ppa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stack | ATL | LHP at home | 1.69 | Matt Harvey CIN | 118% | 1.99 |
| Stack | SFG | RHP at home | 1.75 | Chad Bettis COL | 114% | 2.01 |
| Stack | ARI | RHP on road | 1.56 | Elieser Hernandez MIA | 120% | 1.86 |
| Stack | PIT | LHP on road | 1.75 | Steven Matz NYM | 102% | 1.79 |
| Stack | COL | LHP on road | 1.65 | Derek Holland SFG | 110% | 1.81 |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Avoid | CHC | RHP on road | 1.68 | Ross Stripling LAD | 78% | 1.31 |
| Avoid | PHI | RHP at home | 1.68 | Luis Severino NYY | 71% | 1.20 |
| Avoid | STL | RHP at home | 1.55 | Corey Kluber CLE | 74% | 1.14 |
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