A peak at Chris’ Stream-O-Matic 2000 that he uses to write his weekly Straight Cheese streaming article, and identify MLB lineups to stack or avoid for daily fantasy baseball.
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Stack #2
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Stack #3
Stacking is a well-known daily fantasy sports strategy. In an effort to identify stack worthy lineups I’ve been tinkering with the idea of looking at the opposing pitcher’s DFS points allowed. Similar to in fantasy football looking at the opposing defense’s fantasy points allowed to running backs to determine which one to start.
My approach is to look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS points per plate appearance. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production. It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.
How to Read the Charts
The Rangers are facing a LHP on road and in that situation they are currently putting up 1.67 FanDuel and 1.30 DraftKings points per plate appearance or ppa. The opposing pitcher is Caleb Ferguson (Dodgers) and he is currently allowing 194% more ppa in FanDuel and 170% more ppa in DraftKings than the current MLB average (2.10 on FanDuel and 1.60 on DraftKings). The modified ppa is simply 1.67 x 194% in FanDuel and 1.30 x 170% in DraftKings.
FANDUEL
MLB FanDuel average is 2.10 through yesterday
| Advice | Lineup | Situation | Situational ppa | Pitcher | Pitcher’s Effect | Modified ppa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stack | TEX | LHP on road | 1.67 | Caleb Ferguson LAD | 194% | 3.25 |
| Stack | LAA | RHP on road | 2.40 | Mike Leake SEA | 110% | 2.63 |
| Stack | PHI | RHP at home | 2.23 | Jon Gray COL | 115% | 2.56 |
| Stack | CHC | RHP on road | 2.33 | Chase Anderson MIL | 108% | 2.51 |
| Stack | CIN | RHP on road | 1.97 | Ian Kennedy KCR | 125% | 2.46 |
| Stack | CHW | RHP at home | 2.14 | Adam Plutko CLE | 115% | 2.46 |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Avoid | PIT | RHP on road | 1.97 | Clay Buchholz ARI | 72% | 1.41 |
| Avoid | SDP | RHP on road | 1.83 | Miles Mikolas STL | 73% | 1.34 |
| Avoid | COL | RHP on road | 1.87 | Aaron Nola PHI | 68% | 1.28 |
DRAFTKINGS
MLB DraftKings average is 1.60 through yesterday
| Advice | Lineup | Situation | Situational ppa | Pitcher | Pitcher’s Effect | Modified ppa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stack | TEX | LHP on road | 1.30 | Caleb Ferguson LAD | 170% | 2.21 |
| Stack | LAA | RHP on road | 1.82 | Mike Leake SEA | 111% | 2.02 |
| Stack | PHI | RHP at home | 1.68 | Jon Gray COL | 115% | 1.93 |
| Stack | CHC | RHP on road | 1.77 | Chase Anderson MIL | 107% | 1.89 |
| Stack | CIN | RHP on road | 1.51 | Ian Kennedy KCR | 125% | 1.89 |
| Stack | CHW | RHP at home | 1.65 | Adam Plutko CLE | 115% | 1.89 |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Avoid | PIT | RHP on road | 1.51 | Clay Buchholz ARI | 75% | 1.14 |
| Avoid | SDP | RHP on road | 1.42 | Miles Mikolas STL | 77% | 1.09 |
| Avoid | COL | RHP on road | 1.42 | Aaron Nola PHI | 70% | 1.00 |
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Full disclosure here, Roto_Chris is away but he left his pitching analysis spreadsheet in my possession so I could keep updating the daily lineups for you guys. Of course, it took me since Friday until today to wrap my head around all the detail and create the first post for Tuesday lineups.
Normally we would only post DFS posts in the DFS category, but I figured lets pull this one into the regular fantasy baseball category to give it a little more exposure. Lets see how we do tonight. A couple late games are the tool’s top stack options.