My approach is to take the team’s current situation (home or away; vs. RHP or vs. LHP) DFS points/plate appearance (ppa) and multiply by the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa divided by MLB average DFS ppa as a percentage.
How to Read the Charts
The Pirates are facing a LHP on the road and in that situation they are currently putting up 2.98 FanDuel points per plate appearance or ppa (2.22 on DraftKings). The pitcher they are facing is Matt Harvey and he is currently allowing 126% more ppa in FanDuel (same in DraftKings) than the current MLB average (2.18 on FanDuel and 1.67 on DraftKings). The modified ppa is simply 2.98 x 126% in FanDuel (2.22 x 126% in DraftKings).
FANDUEL
MLB FanDuel average is 2.18 ppa through yesterday
| Advice | Lineup | Situation | Situational ppa | Pitcher | Pitcher’s Effect | Modified ppa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stack | Pirates | LHP on road | 2.98 | Matt Harvey CIN | 126% | 3.77 |
| Stack | Nationals | LHP at home | 2.05 | Eric Lauer SDP | 146% | 2.99 |
| Stack | Phillies | RHP at home | 2.41 | Brandon McCarthy ATL | 117% | 2.82 |
| Stack | Red Sox | RHP on road | 2.45 | Jake Faria TBR | 110% | 2.68 |
| Stack | Cardinals | RHP at home | 2.21 | Jason Hammel KCR | 121% | 2.67 |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Avoid | Giants | RHP on road | 1.94 | Gerrit Cole HOU | 67% | 1.29 |
| Avoid | Padres | RHP on road | 2.03 | Jeremy Hellickson WSN | 68% | 1.38 |
| Avoid | Rays | LHP at home | 2.12 | Chris Sale BOS | 76% | 1.60 |
DRAFTKINGS
MLB DraftKings average is 1.67 ppa through yesterday
| Advice | Lineup | Situation | Situational ppa | Pitcher | Pitcher’s Effect | Modified ppa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stack | Pirates | LHP on road | 2.22 | Matt Harvey CIN | 126% | 2.79 |
| Stack | Nationals | LHP at home | 1.57 | Eric Lauer SDP | 145% | 2.28 |
| Stack | Phillies | RHP at home | 1.81 | Brandon McCarthy ATL | 118% | 2.15 |
| Stack | Cardinals | RHP on road | 1.68 | Jason Hammel KCR | 120% | 2.01 |
| Stack | Red Sox | RHP on road | 1.88 | Jake Faria TBR | 106% | 2.00 |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Avoid | Giants | RHP on road | 1.53 | Gerrit Cole HOU | 68% | 1.04 |
| Avoid | Padres | RHP on road | 1.56 | Jeremy Hellickson WSN | 70% | 1.10 |
| Avoid | Indians | RHP on road | 1.44 | Tyler Chatwood CHC | 85% | 1.23 |
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