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H2H Points Fantasy Baseball League (Ongoing) Draft Recap

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Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees

The Draft Buddy members head-to-head points fantasy baseball league draft is underway. Continuing from my draft prep post, we can call this continuing draft prep, since it is a slow draft, or draft recap, or a bit of both.

We started Monday morning with a 6-hour timer, but frankly, other than one longer stoppage, it hasn’t been very slow. Tuesday morning now and we are through pick 4.08 in this 12-team H2H points fantasy baseball draft. I am drafting from the 12th spot so a long wait for me after each pair of picks.

I am going to use the same format as the prior post, so keep checking back in for ongoing updates.

H2H Points Fantasy Baseball

Tuesday, 8:50am

As mentioned, this is a fantasy points league. This is an important distinction from a roto league, and most fantasy baseball analysis that is based on standard 5X5 roto, or category scoring. In this league, ratios are (mostly) meaningless. Of course if a player earns exceptionally poor ratios then they are going to be riding the pine or off their Major League Baseball team roster eventually, but there is no direct impact on fantasy league scoring.

Fantrax points fantasy baseball scoringWe are doing this league on Fantrax and using their default scoring. You can review 2018 season player stats with Fantrax scoring. The top hitter who hit under 30 HR in this scoring is Trea Turner, checking in at #13 with his 19 HR and 43 SB.

Bah! Live blog format doesn’t work well with constant distractions! Off to take my daughter and her friend to a swimming course they are taking while on spring break. Back in an hour with some actual draft pick updates…

Import Draft Results From Fantrax

Tuesday, 10:20am

As I was saying, knowing the impact of the scoring system (plus number of teams, lineup requirements, etc.) is crucial to properly value players for your draft. That is where Draft Buddy helps immensely. With baseball in particular, there are a much wider range of league types than most fantasy football leagues, and points versus roto is a great example.

Before we get to the draft picks, I cooked up a new video demonstrating the Fantrax integration features in Draft Buddy. These allow you to import team names, keepers and most importantly, draft results. This makes tracking your draft so much easier and faster. Love this feature.

If you already use fantasy football Draft Buddy and draft on MyFantasyLeague.com, then you know what a benefit this is. The Fantrax integration for baseball works very much the same.

Round 1

Tuesday, 11:40am

Lets get to some draft picks or I will never get caught up. We are now into the middle of Round 5 as of writing this, but lets take a look a round at a time. The draft started with, no surprise, Mike Trout going number one overall. My projections score him 40 points higher than Mookie Betts, who went number two overall.

points fantasy baseball league round 1

As shown back in the prior draft prep post, starting pitchers accounted for half of the Top 12 in my overall rankings output from Draft Buddy, including spots two, three and four. So I really was wondering when the first pitcher would get drafted. I didn’t really expect second overall, but maybe three. Max Scherzer lasted to pick six, which to me, ends up being a really good value for Kerry.

Jacob deGrom went immediately after Scherzer. I thought our own @Roto_Chris (articles, Twitter) might take a starting pitcher, as we discussed the pitcher-heavy valuations for this draft and he continued to jibe me about starting the draft with two pitchers. He went Bryce Harper though, whose ADP is 16th overall currently, so a sign the fantasy points favoring power hitters are impacting the draft.

Ronald Acuna is surprisingly absent from our first round. Don’t see that very often. I did end up taking a starting pitcher in Chris Sale. There were good choices with only Scherzer and deGrom drafted at SP ahead of Sale, but I still have him a notch ahead of Corey Kluber and Justin Verlander.

Round 2

Wednesday, 2:45pm

Now having fallen way behind, lets streamline some pick recap and comments. Drafting on the end, I am first up in the even rounds. A second starting pitcher right out of the gate is tempting. I think it is more doable when you already have a big bat you can count on. In a recent 12-team NFBC draft, the number one team took Trout, and then came back with Kluber and Verlander.

That seemed to set him up very nicely the rest of the draft, but he had Trout of course. I don’t have that luxury of course, and with 14 starting hitters versus 9 starting pitchers (who don’t play “everyday”, obviously), really have to lean hitter here I think.

I should note here too I expect this draft to follow average draft position pretty well, even though this is a points league, and ADP is predominantly roto. Starting pitchers are going earlier and earlier in drafts this year, so it may be difficult to tell if they go high here is it because of the scoring, or because that is the norm. I don’t however think every owner will adjust enough to the format, so there should still be good pitching choices in the third and fourth rounds.

Points fantasy baseball league round 2

Hitter it is, I take Giancarlo Stanton. Our Draft Buddy projections are very bullish on Stanton. Keep in mind our projections are based on Steamer, but with our own playing time adjustments. The combination of the two equals lots of home runs, which translates to lots of points in this league. Thankfully, no negative points for strikeouts.

Acuna finally gets drafted, third pick of the second round. His owner is very happy, and why not. He was the 73rd ranked hitter last year in this scoring, in 111 games. The same output playing 150 games puts him at 627 fantasy points, good for 11th last season. He is appropriately valued falling into the second round, given the scoring, but even as a second year player perhaps a safer bet than someone like Stanton, or Harper, who rely more heavily on the long ball.

To sum up the rest of the second round, the pitchers went! Five to be exact from 2.05 to 2.12 – Verlander, Kluber, Aaron Nola, Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell. So that is even a bit earlier than I expected. Maybe I was naive and it was to be expected since everyone has knowledge of and access to the same fantasy baseball draft tool.

I am a bit surprised Aaron Judge didn’t got a bit higher, and really surprised Francisco Lindor fell into the third round. Interesting enough, I mentioned earlier the NFBC draft where Team 1 when Trout-SP-SP, and the same thing happened here.

Round 3

Wednesday, 4:10pm

This round had the makings of continuing to be heavy at starting pitcher with Carlos Carrasco taken off the top. It ended up as only a trickle though with Noah Syndergaard taken at 3.09 and Trevor Bauer 3.11. Wait until the fourth round.

This is the round where we clean up some very good hitters who often make their way into the top two rounds of drafts, but slipped down into the third. Examples using ADP from FantasyPros:

  • Javier Baez – ADP 16, drafted 27
  • Francisco Lindor – ADP 6 (this seems a tad high), drafted 28
  • Manny Machado – ADP 13, drafted 31
  • Andrew Benintendi – ADP 29, drafted 36

Through three rounds we have two teams with two pitchers. Not only team 1, but team 7 did the reverse of team 1, starting deGrom-Kluber, and getting Machado in the third. Seven other teams have one pitcher, leaving three with none.

Something I am starting to come around on at this point in terms of strategy is, do I attempt to draft and start 9 starting pitchers and no relievers? There is no distinction between SP and RP for this league, and it is a points league with Innings Pitched, Wins and Quality Starts scored relatively high, while Saves are modestly rewarded.

Starters will normally only play once a week, of course, while a reliever could see action three times. Here are the top 34 pitchers from last year in this scoring. I picked 34 because I wanted to capture Kenley Jansen in the table. The last column is fantasy points per game.

Name Pos FPts PPG
1. Max Scherzer, WAS SP 603.7 18.3
2. Edwin Diaz, SEA RP 560.3 7.7
3. Justin Verlander, HOU SP 559.0 16.4
4. Blake Snell, TB SP 548.7 17.7
5. Gerrit Cole, HOU SP 537.3 16.8
6. Corey Kluber, CLE SP 533.0 16.2
7. Aaron Nola, PHI SP 520.3 15.8
8. Blake Treinen, OAK RP 519.3 7.6
9. Jacob deGrom, NYM SP 500.0 15.6
10. Luis Severino, NYY SP 489.3 15.3
11. Craig Kimbrel, BOS RP 478.3 7.6
12. Carlos Carrasco, CLE SP|RP 471.0 14.7
13. Chris Sale, BOS SP 458.0 17.0
14. Patrick Corbin, ARI SP 451.0 13.7
15. Trevor Bauer, CLE SP|RP 450.3 16.1
16. Kyle Freeland, COL SP 446.3 13.5
17. Charlie Morton, HOU SP 445.0 14.8
Name Pos FPts PPG
18. Miles Mikolas, STL SP 443.7 13.9
19. J.A. Happ, TOR SP 438.7 14.2
20. Mike Clevinger, CLE SP 430.0 13.4
21. German Marquez, COL SP 429.0 13.0
22. Zack Greinke, ARI SP 427.7 13.0
23. Felipe Vazquez, PIT RP 427.0 6.1
24. Rick Porcello, BOS SP 425.3 12.9
25. Wade Davis, COL RP 414.3 6.0
26. Jon Lester, CHC SP 413.7 12.9
27. David Price, BOS SP 408.0 13.6
28. Mike Foltynewicz, ATL SP 407.0 13.1
29. Jameson Taillon, PIT SP 392.0 12.3
30. Aroldis Chapman, NYY RP 384.3 7.0
31. Jhoulys Chacin, MIL SP 383.7 11.0
32. James Paxton, SEA SP 381.3 13.6
33. Kenley Jansen, LAD RP 380.7 5.5
34. Zack Wheeler, NYM SP 379.3 13.1

I haven’t got a definitive answer yet, as it will depend to a degree how the draft goes, but I think it is valid to fade relievers hard to punting them completely.

Download Draft Buddy for Full Draft

Monday March 18

The draft wrapped last Friday, so we started and finished the slow draft from Monday to Friday with no weekend overlap, which is great. Nice pace gentlemen! I got sidetracked into programming and other work so I wasn’t able to keep going with the detailed draft recap.

I uploaded a copy of my completed Draft Buddy for this draft for your review. Find it under Additional Files on the Draft Buddy download page.

The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational Draft Recap #TGFBI Part 2

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Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves

Chris is excited about his team in The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, or TGFBI for short. Maybe even as excited as Atlanta Braves’ Freddie Freeman, Chris’ 2nd round pick. Here is part two of his draft recap.

Last week I wrote about the first 10 picks of my draft in League 21 of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI). In this piece I’m going to take you all the way through pick 30.

Quick reminder that I’m picking from the 10th slot in the draft, and using the ATC projections in my Draft Buddy setup. I’m also showing you, the reader, how I use my Target Percentages philosophy/method during a fantasy baseball draft.

When last we spoke my Target Percentages through 10 rounds were as follows:

NameHRRRBISBAVG
Through Round 1057%56%57%73%4.50
NameWSVKERAWHIP
Through Round 1032%48%35%3.754.75

With half of my starting hitters drafted I’m over 50% in all counting stats and in the positive with batting average. All good. The down side is that I’ll be drafting hitters with less than desirable profiles, as well as not one, but two starting catchers which should be filed somewhere under cruel and unusual punishment.

As for pitching, I clearly have some work to do. I only have two starters (Chris Sale & Charlie Morton) to go with one closer (Kenley Jansen). I’ll be looking to bolster my staff sooner rather than later in this draft. Which leads me to…

Pick 11.10, 160th overall – SP Andrew Heaney

Heaney, Jose Quintana or Rick Porcello. The hit to ratios is too much with Quintana or Porcello. I can make the difference in wins with RPs.

NameWSVKERAWHIP
Quintana13%0%12%-1.25-2.00
Heaney11%0%12%-1.00-0.50
Porcello15%0%12%-2.50-1.00

Heaney bounced back nicely from Tommy John surgery in 2018 with 180 strikeouts, a 4.15 ERA, 3.68 xFIP and a 1.20 WHIP in 180 innings. A sub-4.00 ERA appears to be achievable in 2019.

NameWSVKERAWHIP
Prev. Pitching Total32%48%35%3.754.75
Heaney11%0%12%-1.00-0.50
New Pitching Total43%48%47%2.754.25

Pick 12.06, 171st overall – RP Jose Alvarado

David Robertson went at 12.03 to Kenny Butrym. He was someone I was hoping to get here. Closer is a delicate position most years, and 2019 is no exception. There are a handful of “named” closers and they go quickly. On my board I have 3 left in this tier: Will Smith, Jose Alvarado and Cody Allen (ADP 11.11). I could possibly get Smith later (ADP 14.06).

Alvarado posted an elite 30.4% strikeout rate last season. The only thing holding him back from being an elite closer is playing for the Tampa Bay Rays and their blatant disregard for running a conventional bullpen.

NameWSVKERAWHIP
Prev. Pitching Total43%48%47%2.754.25
Alvarado3%29%5%0.50-0.25
New Pitching Total46%77%52%3.254.00

Pick 13.10, 190th overall – 1B Eric Hosmer

I know, everyone hates Hosmer. But, he is the highest rated player left on my board by a decent amount. I didn’t expect to draft my UT player this early, but I can’t pass up the value.

Hosmer’s batting average since 2011:

  • Even years 0.232, 0.270, 0.266 and 0.253
  • Odd years: 0.293, 0.302, 0.297 and 0.318 – Psst! 2019 is an odd year!
NameHRRRBISBAVG
Prev. Batting Total57%56%57%73%4.50
Hosmer7%8%8%4%0.50
New Batting Total64%64%65%77%5.00

If you’ve been paying attention, you may have realized that I don’t have a 3B yet. By my count, the top 23 have been taken off the board and I don’t have one of them. In my opinion, third base goes 33 deep and the difference between #33 and #15 is about $5.

With 6 bats left for my starting lineup, I feel I am in great shape. I will definitely be making withdrawals from that +5.00 batting average to get to 100% in the counting stats.

Pick 14.06, 201st overall – SP Ross Stripling

This pick was made in the middle of the “Kershaw is dead” hysteria last week. I had my eye on Stripling even before Nick Pollack of PitcherList said he was grabbing up all shares of Stripling on the Benched with Bubba podcast. He’s one of the few starters still on the board that doesn’t hurt your ratios in some way. This was probably a reach but I feel comfortable with the decision (even if it looks like Kershaw apparently didn’t die).

NameWSVKERAWHIP
Prev. Pitching Total46%77%52%3.254.00
Stripling8%0%8%0.250.00
New Pitching Total54%77%60%3.504.00

Stripling brings me to 4 SP and 2 RP. I’ll be drafting a few sub-optimal starters to get me to 100% in wins and strikeouts. The cost will be those ratios.

Pick 15.10, 220th overall – OF Max Kepler

Kyle Seager just sent me his resumé for my open 3B position. He’s at the top of my list but I have another candidate in my mind. Someone even cheaper than Seager. With that, I shift focus to the outfield. The top two on my board are Odubel Herrera and Kepler. I decide to go with Kepler for the HR.

He lowered his K% and raised his BB% last season and was rewarded with… a .224 batting average? Ugh, a .236 BABIP will do that. Crossing my fingers for a little regression. Regardless, he appears to be on track for 20+ homeruns, 70+ runs, 70+ RBI and a handful of stolen bases.

NameHRRRBISBAVG
Prev. Batting Total64%64%65%77%5.00
Kepler8%7%7%4%-1.00
New Batting Total72%71%72%81%4.00

Pick 16.06, 231st overall – RP Andrew Miller

I think Miller has a solid chance at getting the closer gig for the Cardinals. Even if he doesn’t, his numbers will surely help you over the course of the season. He’s a bit of a health risk and he’s coming off a down season where he posted a 4.24 ERA; his worst since becoming a full-time reliever in 2012.

NameWSVKERAWHIP
Prev. Pitching Total54%77%60%3.504.00
Miller4%13%6%0.750.50
New Pitching Total58%90%66%4.254.50

Pick 17.10, 250th overall – C Welington Castillo

It says in the rules that I have to start a catcher. Well, actually two catchers. I chose Castillo mostly because he seems to have a lock on being the primary catcher for the Chicago White Sox and he’s got some pop without killing your average.

NameHRRRBISBAVG
Prev. Batting Total72%71%72%81%4.00
Castillo5%4%5%1%-0.25
New Batting Total77%75%77%82%3.75

Pick 18.06, 261st overall – 3B Maikel Franco

Remember back when I said I had another candidate in mind for third base? Got’em. Two rounds later I get basically the same player with slightly fewer runs and RBI but with a much better batting average.

NameHRRRBISBAVG
Seager (drafted 16.05)8%7%8%1%-1.50
Franco8%6%7%1%-0.25

Franco has lowered his K% over the last three years while increasing his ISO. No one is talking about him this season, but he seems like a lock for 20+ homeruns, 60+ runs and 70+ RBI while batting somewhere between .250 to .270. I’ll take that at this point in the draft.

NameHRRRBISBAVG
Prev. Batting Total77%75%77%82%3.75
Franco8%6%7%1%-0.25
New Batting Total85%81%84%83%3.50

Pick 19.10, 280th overall – OF Odubel Herrera

I almost took Herrera back in the 15th when I took Kepler. He is still there staring me down.

Many are scared off by his recent hamstring injury. Not me. While he hit a career best 22 bombs in 2018 it came at the expense of his batting average (career low .255) and stolen bases (career low 5). I’m gambling that 2018 was the exception and he gets back on track.

NameHRRRBISBAVG
Prev. Batting Total85%81%84%83%3.50
Herrera6%6%7%6%0.00
New Batting Total91%87%91%89%3.50

Pick 20.06, 291st overall – SP Jake Junis

Well, we all knew this time would come. I’ve been banking up those ratios for this moment. He’s the highest ranked remaining starter on my list. That’s about all I can say about him. He will not be the last starter I draft. I’m hoping to get a few more and stream them in and out of my starting lineup in hopes of minimizing the damage they do to my ratios.

NameWSVKERAWHIP
Prev. Pitching Total58%90%66%4.254.50
Junis11%0%11%-2.00-1.00
New Pitching Total69%90%77%2.253.50

Pick 21.10, 310th overall – OF Kole Calhoun

My 5th outfielder that should help me a little bit in steals. From 2013-2017 his BABIP was .303 which is right around league average. Last year it was .241, so I’m betting on things getting back to “normal” for him in 2019.

NameHRRRBISBAVG
Prev. Batting Total91%87%91%89%3.50
Calhoun6%7%7%4%-1.75
New Batting Total97%94%98%93%1.75

Here are the rest of my picks:

  • Pick 22.06, 321st overall – 3B Jeimer Candelario – Hoping the wrist injury is behind him (.225 ISO before; .148 after).
  • Pick 23.10, 340th overall – SP Zack Eflin – Up and down 2018; hoping for a bounceback.
  • Pick 24.06, 351st overall – RP Ryan Brasier – Decent chance to be the closer in Boston.
  • Pick 25.10, 370th overall – 2B Starlin Castro – Why not? Projected for 14+ homeruns, 64+ RBI, 60+ runs with a .266+ average.
  • Pick 26.06, 381st overall – C Tyler Flowers – Well, I have to start 2 catchers.
  • Pick 27.10, 400th overall – SP Trevor Cahill – Great start in 2018 (3.12 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 25 K% in first 13 games) before coming back down to Earth.
  • Pick 28.06, 411st overall – RP Diego Castillo – Used by the Rays as an “opener” but has closer stuff (29.3 K%).
  • Pick 29.10, 430th overall – 3B Zack Cozart – Drafted right before his injury news came out.
  • Pick 30.06, 441st overall – SP Robbie Erlin – Last year had a 4.21 ERA but a 3.41 xFIP.

Closing Thoughts

Here are my starting bats:

NameHRRRBISBAVG
C – Wellington Castillo5%4%5%1%-0.25
C – Tyler Flowers3%4%4%0%-0.50
1B – Freddie Freeman9%9%10%6%3.50
2B – Brian Dozier9%8%8%9%-1.50
3B – Maikel Franco8%6%7%1%-0.25
SS – Xander Bogaerts7%8%9%8%1.75
OF – Starling Marte6%8%7%24%1.25
OF – Eddie Rosario9%8%8%7%1.25
OF – Max Kepler8%7%7%4%-1.00
OF – Odubel Herrera6%6%7%6%0.00
OF – Kole Calhoun6%7%7%4%-1.75
MI – Tim Anderson6%7%6%18%-0.75
CI – Matt Olson11%8%9%1%-1.00
UT – Eric Hosmer7%8%8%4%0.50
Starters Total100%98%102%93%1.25

I fell just a bit shy in runs and a good bit in steals of my 100% goal but I’m ahead in RBI and batting average. All in all, I’m in good shape. My bench hitters:

NameHRRRBISBAVG
Jeimer Candelario3B6%7%6%0.02
Starlin Castro2B5%6%6%0.04
Zack Cozart3B5%6%5%0.01

With his recent injury, Cozart will be the first to be dropped. Here is my core pitching staff as I see it today:

NameWSVKERAWHIP
Chris Sale16%0%17%3.004.00
Charlie Morton13%0%12%0.00-0.50
Andrew Heaney11%0%12%-1.00-0.50
Ross Stripling8%0%8%0.250.00
Kenley Jansen3%48%6%0.751.25
Jose Alvarado3%29%5%0.50-0.25
Andrew Miller4%13%6%0.750.50
Core Pitching Total58%90%66%4.254.50

And here are the players I will rotate in and out weekly based on matchup, etc.:

NameWSVKERAWHIP
Jake Junis11%0%11%-2.00-1.00
Zach Eflin12%0%9%-1.75-1.00
Trevor Cahill8%0%8%-1.25-2.00
Robbie Erlin6%0%6%-1.50-0.75
Ryan Brasier3%18%4%0.000.00

If Brasier ends up getting the closing gig in Boston I will make him part of the core group. As for the starters listed here, I’d be shocked if any of them are still here when the season ends. I’ll be streaming starting pitchers throughout the season.

Well, I hope you got something out of this exercise. If I had to pin down the overall arching message of the two articles it is that the more you bank your ratios the more you have to withdraw from to get the counting stats. Wish me luck in the TGFBI!

Preparing For 12-Team Head-to-Head Fantasy Points League

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Draft Buddy Fantasy Baseball Draft Software

Whether I am in a roto scoring or a fantasy points scoring fantasy baseball league, the first thing I do for my draft prep is set up Draft Buddy.

Going to go a bit outside the box today describing how I am going to prepare for the Draft Buddy Head-to-Head Weekly Fantasy Baseball Points League. We really need a snappier name for this league.

The outside-the-box part is that this is a living (changing) document, with updates through today and the weekend describing what I am doing to prepare for the draft on Monday. I guess you could say the questionable part of this, is one would not normally publish their draft preparation in advance of a draft for their competitors to see.

Oh well. It’s fine. For the fantasy baseball community, for the greater good!

Fantasy Baseball Points League Draft Prep

Friday, 11:28am

Pi Day PizzaHaven’t accomplished much so far this morning, unless you include making a Pi pizza for my son to take to school, donating blood, and reading an article about an incredible theft of Star Wars collectibles.

Obviously, I am going to turn to Draft Buddy first to start my draft prep. I so often run Draft Buddy for roto scoring leagues this will be a good refresher doing it for a fantasy points league. Let me work up a YouTube video setting up Draft Buddy and post that.

Set Up Draft Buddy Demo Video

Friday, 2:35pm

Wow, that takes a while. Lunch was in there too, but recording the demo, processing the video and uploading to YouTube all add up in time. I didn’t even listen to or edit it, so hopefully, you find it useful. How to set up Draft Buddy for a fantasy points league video…

Review Overall Rankings For Position Values

Friday, 3:10pm

Normally when I am in a new fantasy league with unfamiliar scoring or format (number of teams, starting lineup, etc.), I will jump to review the overall results in Draft Buddy. This helped me immensely in two fantasy football leagues in the past two years. I took advantage of some odd scoring in each that most of the other participants did not realize had a major impact on player values. They wrongly assumed the fantasy scoring was close enough to standard performance or point-per-reception (PPR).

This is my first time in a long time doing a fantasy baseball points league, and first time on Fantrax using their default scoring. Earlier this week I input scoring for various league managers (CBS, ESPN, Fantrax, Yahoo) in our database to allow for custom scoring player stats, projections and player pages. I noticed there is quite a difference in default scoring from site to site, so especially in fantasy baseball always check your league scoring.

Fantasy baseball points league overall cheatsheetOkay, so the Draft Buddy overall results… half of the Top 12 players are starting pitchers. Another five starting pitchers make up the players ranked 13th to 24th overall. This I did not expect. Its unfortunate for me personally, because I love to draft hitters over stockpiling pitchers. Maybe I would have altered the scoring!

To make sure I did this correctly I am going to run the numbers through Last Player Picked, fantasy points version. You knew that was a thing, right?

The numbers all match, except for pitchers LPP does not have quality starts as an option. Checking the projections and quality start scoring, everything looks accurate from Draft Buddy. Starting pitchers are very valuable. Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper and J.D. Martinez are in the Top 10, while Trea Turner, Ronald Acuna and Jose Altuve are 20th and lower. Why?

On the pitchers side, they get 1 point for an inning pitched, 10 for a win and 3 for a quality start. That is pretty significant for a starting pitcher expected to log 190-200 innings. For hitters, no penalty for strikouts, and homers are worth 4 each, +1 for a run and +1 for an RBI. The 30-40 projected home run crowd has an advantage over players like Turner and Altuve who are each projected for fewer than 20.

Going to do some more detailed review before I return to discuss next steps in my fantasy baseball draft prep.

Friday, 4:50pm

The end of the day is near, so I will wrap for today with a couple thoughts. First, I need to set the 12-team schedule for our league’s regular season and playoffs. We are trying to find something fair and balanced. For regular seaosn, we hope to reduce schedule luck, while not diminishing the competitiveness of head-to-head format. Ideally, we will not use divisions. Every team plays every other team the same number of times.

For playoffs, we want it to be challenging to make the playoffs, so likely four of twelve advance. Debating a one week semi-finals, one week championship one-and-done format, or a multi-week combined total points among playoff teams format.

Listening to Craig Mish on Sirius XM Fantasy Radio this morning, he mentioned how spring training stats can, in some cases, help identify undervalued players who are raking in March and continue that into April. That got me thinking that we actually have access to spring training stats from our provider, Reliant Stats. I will see how difficult it is to add these to the website, so maybe we can do our own research to help identify the next… what was one example he gave… oh right, Whit Merrifield.

Victory Points

Saturday, 1:35pm

Late last night after returning from indoor soccer, I set the weekly schedule and randomizes the draft order. The schedule is indeed a 22-week regular season. Every team will play every other team twice. Plus, every team will play against the weekly average score for the week.

This is called victory points format. If a team beats their “real” opponent, then they get a win. If a team beats the average score, then they get a win. Each week a team will finish 2-0, 1-1 or 0-2. As mentioned above, this should be a nice balance to reduce schedule luck from pure head-to-head, while still enjoying head-to-head competition that gets lost a bit in an all-play format.

The playoffs are the remaining MLB schedule after the first 22 weeks (including the short opening week and All-Star Game week merged with their subsequent week in the calendar. The single long playoff period is a total points competition between the top four teams based on won-loss record from the regular season. Should be a real slugfest at that point.

Drafting From The Wheel

Saturday, 1:55pm

Now for the draft order, I drew the… drumroll please… 12th pick in the draft. Yep, dead last. “The Wheel” as they call it. This season is actually the first time I’ve ever heard that term for drafting on the end, but drafting from The Wheel I am.

Not a bad spot really. I am sure many would like that spot since there seems to be a lot of different opinions between players drafted three through eight or ten. It is possible a pair of those top players falls to 12 and 13. Personally, I prefer an earlier draft pick because of the benefit of the early third round pick, outweighing the benefit of the early second round pick.

I also usually like being a spot or two off either end of a draft, because then one can try to take better advantage of tiering and position needs of the team(s) drafting after you on the short turn. Drafting on the end, I may be more inclined to grab a pair of players at the same position. This helps incent the start of runs, like pitchers, instead of waiting and getting caught because a run started at the other end of the draft board.

In this case with our points league, I wonder if drafters will follow average draft position that is readily available and based more on roto leagues. If they do without adjusting for the points scoring, a player who rightfully deserves a spot in our Top 10 could easily fall to me at the 12th and 13th picks. An example might be Giancarlo Stanton, a projected Top 5 hitter but normally drafted about 21st.

Or, the aforementioned starting pitchers with their high valuations. Surely Max Scherzer will still be drafted Top 5 regardless of format, but will all of Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander get drafted before my first pick? Do I take a pair of pitchers this early and worry about hitters later? It will be a tough decision given the uncertainty what options I’ll have coming back, another 22 picks later.

Spring Training Stats

Saturday, 3:10pm

Hey check it, we have MLB spring training stats. There may be some players missing if they weren’t in our database previously, but I will investigate that and add them as needed.

No roto values available but you can change the fantasy points scoring system to any of the major fantasy league managers or DFS sites using the Switch link in the upper-right.

Benefits of a Slow Draft

Sunday, 11:30am

I realize this is turning into one of the oddest how to prep for a fantasy baseball draft posts you’ve likely read in a while. As usual, things are hectic around here as I am juggling family obligations with website stuff and prepping for the draft is taking a bit of a backseat.

Thankfully, it is a slow draft with a 6-hour timer, not a live draft with a minute per pick. This draft had better not average 6 hours per pick, but it will span over days. This flexibility allows me to be a bit more casual prepping because I can research while the draft is underway.

I try to take a cerebral approach to fantasy drafting, which means intellectual as opposed to overly emotional decision making. And thinking intellectually, there is only so much one person can control in a draft.

In this 12-team league, I have exactly one pick for every 12. Picking 12th, I have zero control over the first 11 picks. To that end, do I need to spend any time – for this draft – deciding between Mike Trout or Mookie Betts? Is Max Scherzer rightfully the consensus number one starting pitcher? No, there is no need. It would be a waste of time.

Tailor your own draft prep to focus on things that will make a difference in your own draft, using all of the available information you have at the time. Maybe you don’t know your draft position until just before the draft starts, so you need to take a more broad approach.

My next step is to update the projections, depth charts and ADP in Draft Buddy, so I have the latest up-to-date information for the start of the draft. Plus, I did promise to take my kids to see Captain Marvel today. I’ll be back in a while with a short Captain Marvel review, and after Draft Buddy is updated.

Captiain Marvel Review

Sunday, 8:30pm

Captain Marvel was awesome! Excellent tribute to Stan Lee in the opening credits and short but respectful cameo of Brie Larson smiling back at him from chance encounter early in the show. The movie kept me highly entertained from start to finish.

The story really helped tie some things together in the Marvel cinematic universe, and did justice to the character showing how powerful and integral she is, and will be moving forward. It was great seeing Coulson and Fury. Highly recommended if you are fan of the Marvel movies.

Now, back to baseball. I am still working on updating the Draft Buddy projections, but most of the update is ready.

Mike Trout

Monday, 10:30am

And we’re off! No surprise Mike Trout went first overall followed by Mookie Betts.

Now seems like a good time to close this post, but start a new one to provide in-draft commentary. I will post the link, or you will find it on the homepage, once I get it set up. Thanks for reading my pre-draft ramblings!

Update: The draft is underway. Here is the link to our points fantasy baseball league draft recap.

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