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MLB Daily Fantasy Lineups to Stack / Avoid Monday July 23

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Stack #1
Rangers
·
Stack #2
Indians
·
Stack #3
Angels

Stacking is a well-known DFS strategy. In an effort to identify stack worthy lineups I’ve been tinkering with the idea of looking at the opposing pitcher’s DFS points allowed. Similar to in fantasy football looking at the opposing defense’s fantasy points allowed to running backs to determine which one to start.

My approach is to look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS points per plate appearance. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production. It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

How to Read the Charts
The Texas Rangers are facing a LHP at home and in that situation they are currently putting up 2.48 FanDuel and 1.87 DraftKings points per plate appearance or ppa. The opposing pitcher is LHP Brett Anderson OAK who after facing 111 batters is currently allowing 131% more ppa in FanDuel and 132% more ppa in DraftKings than the current MLB average (2.109 on FanDuel and 1.609 on DraftKings). The modified ppa is simply 2.48 x 131% in FanDuel and 1.87 x 132% in DraftKings.

FANDUEL
MLB FanDuel average is 2.109 points per plate appearance (ppa) through yesterday

Advice Lineup Situation Situational ppa Pitcher Batters Faced Pitcher’s Effect Modified ppa Diff
Stack TEX LHP at home 2.48 Brett Anderson OAK 111 131% 3.25 0.77
Stack CLE RHP at home 2.63 Trevor Williams PIT 416 104% 2.73 0.10
Stack LAA RHP at home 2.19 Lucas Giolito CHW 464 122% 2.67 0.48
Stack STL RHP on road 2.16 Luis Castillo CIN 446 119% 2.57 0.41
Stack BOS RHP on road 2.31 Kevin Gausman BAL 485 107% 2.47 0.15
— — — — — — — — —
Avoid TBR RHP at home 2.03 Luis Severino NYY 502 72% 1.46 -0.56
Avoid MIA LHP at home 1.57 Sean Newcomb ATL 438 92% 1.44 -0.13
Avoid SDP RHP on road 1.75 Jacob deGrom NYM 485 64% 1.12 -0.63

DRAFTKINGS
MLB DraftKings average is 1.609 points per plate appearance (ppa) through yesterday

Advice Lineup Situation Situational ppa Pitcher Batters Faced Pitcher’s Effect Modified ppa Diff
Stack TEX LHP at home 1.87 Brett Anderson OAK 111 132% 2.47 0.59
Stack CLE RHP at home 1.97 Trevor Williams PIT 416 102% 2.02 0.05
Stack LAA RHP at home 1.66 Lucas Giolito CHW 464 117% 1.95 0.29
Stack STL RHP on road 1.64 Luis Castillo CIN 446 117% 1.92 0.28
Stack BOS RHP on road 1.76 Kevin Gausman BAL 485 109% 1.91 0.16
— — — — — — — — —
Avoid TBR RHP at home 1.56 Luis Severino NYY 502 75% 1.16 -0.39
Avoid MIA LHP at home 1.23 Sean Newcomb ATL 438 91% 1.11 -0.11
Avoid SDP RHP on road 1.36 Jacob deGrom NYM 485 67% 0.91 -0.45

MLB Daily Fantasy Lineups to Stack / Avoid Sunday July 22

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Stack #1
Red Sox
·
Stack #2
Astros
·
Stack #3
Reds

Stacking is a well-known DFS strategy. In an effort to identify stack worthy lineups I’ve been tinkering with the idea of looking at the opposing pitcher’s DFS points allowed. Similar to in fantasy football looking at the opposing defense’s fantasy points allowed to running backs to determine which one to start.

My approach is to look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS points per plate appearance. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production. It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

How to Read the Charts
The Boston Red Sox are facing a RHP on road and in that situation they are currently putting up 2.35 FanDuel and 1.79 DraftKings points per plate appearance or ppa. The opposing pitcher is RHP Michael Fulmer DET who after facing 471 batters is currently allowing 106% more ppa in FanDuel and 105% more ppa in DraftKings than the current MLB average (2.106 on FanDuel and 1.606 on DraftKings). The modified ppa is simply 2.35 x 106% in FanDuel and 1.79 x 105% in DraftKings.

FANDUEL
MLB FanDuel average is 2.106 points per plate appearance (ppa) through Thursday

Advice Lineup Situation Situational ppa Pitcher Batters Faced Pitcher’s Effect Modified ppa Diff
Stack BOS RHP on road 2.35 Michael Fulmer DET 471 106% 2.50 0.15
Stack HOU LHP on road 2.51 Andrew Heaney LAA 425 99% 2.48 -0.03
Stack CIN RHP at home 2.19 Ivan Nova PIT 438 112% 2.45 0.26
Stack NYM RHP on road 2.26 Masahiro Tanaka NYY 341 108% 2.45 0.19
Stack STL LHP on road 2.38 Jose Quintana CHC 419 103% 2.44 0.06
— — — — — — — — —
Avoid MIN RHP on road 2.02 Brad Keller KCR 266 80% 1.61 -0.41
Avoid SFG LHP on road 1.78 Sean Manaea OAK 498 88% 1.56 -0.21
Avoid OAK RHP at home 1.94 Johnny Cueto SFG 167 75% 1.45 -0.49

DRAFTKINGS
MLB DraftKings average is 1.606 points per plate appearance (ppa) through Thursday

Advice Lineup Situation Situational ppa Pitcher Batters Faced Pitcher’s Effect Modified ppa Diff
Stack BOS RHP on road 1.79 Michael Fulmer DET 471 105% 1.88 0.10
Stack HOU LHP on road 1.90 Andrew Heaney LAA 425 98% 1.87 -0.03
Stack CIN RHP at home 1.66 Ivan Nova PIT 438 114% 1.88 0.22
Stack NYM RHP on road 1.71 Masahiro Tanaka NYY 341 107% 1.84 0.13
Stack STL LHP on road 1.78 Jose Quintana CHC 419 102% 1.82 0.04
— — — — — — — — —
Avoid MIN RHP on road 1.53 Brad Keller KCR 266 82% 1.25 -0.28
Avoid SFG LHP on road 1.37 Sean Manaea OAK 498 89% 1.22 -0.15
Avoid OAK RHP at home 1.48 Johnny Cueto SFG 167 77% 1.14 -0.34

MLB Daily Fantasy Lineups to Stack / Avoid Saturday July 21

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Stack #1
Phillies
·
Stack #2
Astros
·
Stack #3
Tigers

Stacking is a well-known DFS strategy. In an effort to identify stack worthy lineups I’ve been tinkering with the idea of looking at the opposing pitcher’s DFS points allowed. Similar to in fantasy football looking at the opposing defense’s fantasy points allowed to running backs to determine which one to start.

My approach is to look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS points per plate appearance. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production. It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

How to Read the Charts
The Philadelphia Phillies are facing a RHP at home and in that situation they are currently putting up 2.19 FanDuel and 1.65 DraftKings points per plate appearance or ppa. The opposing pitcher is RHP Luis Perdomo SDP who after facing 157 batters is currently allowing 137% more ppa in FanDuel and 134% more ppa in DraftKings than the current MLB average (2.106 on FanDuel and 1.606 on DraftKings). The modified ppa is simply 2.19 x 137% in FanDuel and 1.65 x 134% in DraftKings.

FANDUEL
MLB FanDuel average is 2.106 points per plate appearance (ppa) through Thursday

Advice Lineup Situation Situational ppa Pitcher Batters Faced Pitcher’s Effect Modified ppa Diff
Stack PHI RHP at home 2.19 Luis Perdomo SDP 157 137% 2.99 0.80
Stack HOU RHP on road 2.43 Nick Tropeano LAA 224 115% 2.79 0.36
Stack DET LHP at home 2.46 Brian Johnson BOS 215 100% 2.47 0.01
Stack TBR RHP at home 2.02 Pablo Lopez MIA 72 124% 2.51 0.49
Stack NYM RHP on road 2.26 Sonny Gray NYY 407 111% 2.51 0.25
— — — — — — — — —
Avoid OAK LHP at home 1.89 Madison Bumgarner SFG 208 85% 1.61 -0.29
Avoid LAA RHP at home 2.13 Justin Verlander HOU 530 74% 1.58 -0.56
Avoid MIL LHP at home 1.94 Clayton Kershaw LAD 305 81% 1.57 -0.37

DRAFTKINGS
MLB DraftKings average is 1.606 points per plate appearance (ppa) through Thursday

Advice Lineup Situation Situational ppa Pitcher Batters Faced Pitcher’s Effect Modified ppa Diff
Stack PHI RHP at home 1.65 Luis Perdomo SDP 157 134% 2.21 0.56
Stack HOU RHP on road 1.83 Nick Tropeano LAA 224 114% 2.09 0.26
Stack DET LHP at home 1.87 Brian Johnson BOS 215 103% 1.92 0.05
Stack TBR RHP at home 1.56 Pablo Lopez MIA 72 121% 1.88 0.33
Stack NYM RHP on road 1.71 Sonny Gray NYY 407 110% 1.88 0.17
— — — — — — — — —
Avoid OAK LHP at home 1.44 Madison Bumgarner SFG 208 86% 1.24 -0.20
Avoid LAA RHP at home 1.63 Justin Verlander HOU 530 75% 1.23 -0.40
Avoid MIL LHP at home 1.46 Clayton Kershaw LAD 305 83% 1.22 -0.24