This is my weekly column where I suggest streaming low owned starting pitchers that have a match up in their favor in the coming week, in an effort to help your fantasy baseball team. This week I’m going to recap all of my suggestions from the recently concluded 2019 MLB regular season.
As a reminder, my process is to look at wOBA, ISO and K% because they tend to identify weak lineups and conversely for pitchers I look at wOBA, ISO against and their K%.
Before we look back at the 2019 season, let’s look back at my previous recommendations for starting pitchers to stream back in Week 26 and Week 27.
Evaluating Streaming Starting Pitchers Suggested in Weeks 26 & 27
| Name | Date | G | IP | ER | H | BB | K | DEC | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Young, ARI | 9/17 vs MIA | 1 | 5.00 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | ND | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Adrian Houser, MIL | 9/18 vs SDP | 1 | 5.00 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | L | 3.60 | 0.60 |
| Anibal Sanchez, WAS | 9/20 @ MIA | 1 | 5.00 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | W | 5.40 | 1.40 |
| Ross Stripling, LAD | 9/25 @ SDP | 1 | 3.00 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 7 | ND | 9.00 | 1.67 |
| Tyler Beede, SFG | 9/26 vs COL | 1 | 3.33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | ND | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cumulative Streaming Season Total | 55 | 276.33 | 147 | 296 | 95 | 248 | 17 – 20 | 4.79 | 1.41 |
Here’s a look back at the two-start pitcher I recommended back in Weeks 26 and 27.
| Name | Date | G | IP | ER | H | BB | K | DEC | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Homer Bailey, KCR | 9/24 @ LAA | 1 | 5.00 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 3 | L | 5.40 | 1.60 |
| Cumulative Two-Start Season Total | 34 | 185.67 | 81 | 176 | 52 | 177 | 16 – 7 | 3.93 | 1.23 |
The Royals opted to not start Bailey after the game against the Angels.
2019 Postmortem
Here’s a monthly breakdown of all the pitchers I recommended this season.
| Month | G | IP | ER | H | BB | K | W-L | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 9 | 49.00 | 21 | 49 | 13 | 46 | 4 – 2 | 3.86 | 1.27 |
| May | 20 | 107.00 | 54 | 104 | 42 | 103 | 7 – 6 | 4.54 | 1.36 |
| June | 19 | 101.67 | 58 | 105 | 28 | 77 | 7 – 8 | 5.13 | 1.31 |
| July | 11 | 59.33 | 38 | 74 | 13 | 57 | 6 – 3 | 5.76 | 1.47 |
| August | 14 | 67.00 | 33 | 64 | 34 | 69 | 4 – 4 | 4.43 | 1.46 |
| September | 16 | 78.00 | 24 | 76 | 17 | 73 | 5 – 4 | 2.77 | 1.19 |
| Total | 89 | 462.00 | 228 | 472 | 147 | 425 | 33 – 27 | 4.44 | 1.34 |
I take solace in the fact that my overall 4.44 ERA was less than the 4.51 MLB average ERA. I do not take solace in the fact that it is a crappy ERA to have on your fantasy team. For example, the team with the worst ERA had 4.387 in my TGFBI league.
Here are some pitchers that ended 2019 with a higher ERA and WHIP than I did:
- Jon Lester – 4.46 ERA and 1.50 WHIP
- Jose Quintana – 4.68 ERA and 1.39 WHIP
- Ivan Nova – 4.72 ERA and 1.45 WHIP
- Martin Perez – 5.12 ERA and 1.52 WHIP
- Rick Porcello – 5.52 ERA and 1.39 WHIP
The point I am trying to make is that I, too, had a disappointing year.
Most Frequent Opponent
The team I picked on the most was the San Francisco Giants. In the 10 games I told you to stream against them I posted a 4.96 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 55 strikeouts and a 3-5 record. Awful.
The team I had the most success picking on was the Chicago White Sox. Unfortunately, I only suggested streaming against them 6 times
Most Frequent Pitchers Recommended
Here are the pitchers I suggested streaming more than 3 times this season:
- Anibal Sanchez: 3.58 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 3 wins and 17 strikeouts in 5 starts.
- Dinelson Lamet: 1.96 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 1 win and 33 strikeouts in 4 starts.
- Tommy Milone: 3.86 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 3 wins and 20 strikeouts in 4 starts.
- Spencer Turnbull: 6.55 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 0 wins and 20 strikeouts in 4 starts.
All four combined: 3.94 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7 wins and 90 strikeouts in 17 starts. That’s roughly 17 Zach Wheeler starts.
My Best Calls
- Dinelson Lamet (8/6 @ SEA): 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 4 BB, 12 K and 1 win.
- Mike Soroka (5/4 @ MIA): 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 6 K and 1 win.
- Wade Miley (6/9 vs BAL): 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K and 1 win.
- Jake Odorizzi (5/10) vs DET): 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 5 K and 1 win.
- Jeff Samardzija (7/7 vs STL): 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 2 K and 1 win.
My Worst Calls
- Merrill Kelly (7/23 vs BAL): 2.1 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 4 K and 1 loss.
- Griffin Canning (7/25 vs BAL): 2.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 K and 1 loss.
- Framber Valdez (6/26 vs PIT): 3.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 2 K and 1 loss.
- Brendan McKay (8/19 vs SEA): 2.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 1 K and 1 loss.
- Erik Swanson (4/28 vs TEX): 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 11 H, 0 BB, 2 K and 1 loss.
How Can I Get Better?
There is no other way to say this. I took a big step back in 2019 from 2018, where I put up a 3.64 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 388 strikeouts and 31 wins in 71 starts.
What happened this season?
I suggested more pitchers to stream (89 in 2019 compared to 71 in 2018). That’s more Russian roulette trigger pulls. So, maybe in 2020, less reaching each week for suggestions?
Another factor to consider is home starts versus road starts. Home/road splits are considered in my analysis but numbers don’t lie:
| H/A | G | IP | ER | H | BB | K | W-L | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 52 | 275.33 | 134 | 280 | 74 | 232 | 19 – 16 | 4.38 | 1.29 |
| Away | 37 | 186.67 | 94 | 192 | 73 | 193 | 14 – 11 | 4.53 | 1.42 |
| Total | 89 | 462.00 | 228 | 472 | 147 | 425 | 33 – 27 | 4.44 | 1.34 |
I just might have to seriously consider only suggesting road starts if it is an overwhelming advantage for the pitcher. Something to think about in the off season.
Well, that closes the book on Straight Cheese for 2019. I hope you enjoyed my analysis and I look forward to improving on my suggestions in 2020!
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