DraftBuddy.com

Fantasy Baseball and Fantasy Football Draft Tools

Straight Cheese Streaming Starting Pitchers Week 4 + Pick Up Matthew Boyd

By Leave a Comment

Detroit Tigers Matthew Boyd

Detroit Tigers Matthew Boyd says, “yeah baby, made the first edition of Straight Cheese in 2019.”*

* Not an actual quote from Matthew Boyd

Welcome back to another year of Straight Cheese! This is my weekly column where I suggest starting pitchers that have a matchup in their favor for the upcoming week. For the most part, I try and suggest players with low ownership. This week we are looking at streaming starting pitchers week 4.

Identifying Weak Hitting Lineups

I like to look at wOBA, ISO and K% to identify weak lineups and conversely, for pitchers I look at wOBA, ISO against and their K%.

With it being so early in the season not enough data has accumulated to look exclusively at 2019 stats. A solution is to look back at 2018 and these first few weeks of 2019 to get an idea of teams to pick on. Here are the bottom third teams in each stat from 2018 along with their current 2019 numbers.

All statistics, ownership and projected starting dates are as of Thursday morning, April 11.

wOBA20182019ISO2018 2019 K%2018 2019
Marlins0.289 (30th)0.277 (24th)Marlins0.119 (30th)0.132 (25th)White Sox26.3% (30th)26.1% (25th)
Giants0.290 (29th)0.257 (30th)Giants0.129 (29th)0.115 (29th)Padres25.1% (29th)22.9% (16th)
Padres0.294 (28th)0.309 (18th)Tigers0.138 (28th)0.112 (30th)Phillies24.8% (28th)21.5% (10th)
Tigers0.295 (27th)0.268 (27th)Padres0.145 (27th)0.178 (13th)Rangers24.1% (27th)27.6% (28th)
Orioles0.299 (26th)0.295 (22nd)Royals0.146 (26th)0.156 (18th)Giants24.0% (26th)25.0% (20th)
Royals0.303 (25th)0.296 (21st)Reds0.148 (25th)0.177 (15th)Diamondbacks23.7% (25th)21.9% (11th)
White Sox0.304 (24th)0.304 (19th)Rays0.148 (24th)0.146 (20th)Brewers23.5% (24th)22.8% (15th)
Mets0.305 (23rd)0.345 (10th)Orioles0.152 (23rd)0.146 (21st)Orioles23.4% (23rd)22.6% (14th)
Diamondbacks0.306 (22nd)0.352 (6th)Cubs0.152 (22nd)0.190 (10th)Blue Jays22.8% (22nd)28.0% (29th)
Phillies0.307 (21st)0.341 (12th)Pirates0.154 (21st)0.135 (24th)Marlins22.8% (21st)24.7% (19th)

Here are the teams still in bottom third in all three stats: San Francisco Giants. The Miami Marlins are really close. So, I’m going to start with these two teams to pick on by identifying starting pitchers facing the Giants and Marlins next week. Next week’s schedules:

  • Giants: Washington Nationals (away) and Pittsburgh Pirates (away)
  • Marlins: Chicago Cubs (home) and Washington Nationals (home)

Streaming Starting Pitchers Week 4

RHP Anibal Sanchez, WAS
Owned Y20%/E12% · at Miami Marlins – Friday, April 19th

Marlins are posting a 0.284 wOBA (21st), 0.116 ISO (27th) and 31.8 K% (29th) at home versus RHP so far in 2019. Now that is only 49 plate appearances, but rest assured they were just as bad last season when facing RHP at home: 0.290 wOBA (30th), 0.106 ISO (30th) and only striking out 21.0% of the time (13th). They are ripe to be taken advantage of.

Sanchez should do just that. His numbers aren’t great after two starts (both against a very dangerous Phillies lineup): 6.52 era, 4.83 xFIP, 1.76 whip, 20.0 K% in 9.2 innings. He’s coming off a brilliant year with Atlanta and matchups don’t get any better then this.

RHP Trevor Williams, PIT
Owned Y46%/E40% · vs. San Francisco Giants – Friday, April 19th

Giants are currently posting a 0.283 wOBA (20th), 0.171 ISO (13th) and 23.7 K% (19th) when facing RHP on the road. Last season, in the same split, they put up a 0.287 wOBA (28th), 0.130 ISO (29th) and 26.3 K% (30th). I don’t need to tell you that their numbers are better this season than last. But… can you trust them? They didn’t really improve their lineup in the off season (and, Kevin Pillar isn’t the answer, either).

Williams is coming off two starts, both against the underperforming Reds. Through 12 innings he’s got a 2.25 era, 3.86 xFIP, 0.92 whip and a 19.6 K%. Those numbers are even better than last season’s 3.11 ERA, 4.54 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP and 18.0 K% in 170.2 innings. Many were predicting Williams to regress back down to earth in 2019. It hasn’t happened yet, and the Giants don’t seem to be the team to pull him back down either.

I still need one more starting pitcher to recommend for you, my loyal readers. I always like to give you three. I’m going to look at teams still in bottom third in two of the three stats: Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles. The Kansas City Royals and Chicago White Sox are really close. Next week’s schedules:

  • Tigers: Pittsburgh (home) and White Sox (home)
  • Orioles: Boston Red Sox (away), Tampa Rays (away) and Minnesota Twins (home)
  • Royals: White Sox (away) and New York Yankees (away)
  • White Sox: Royals (home ) and Tigers (away)

RHP Yonny Chirinos, TB
Owned Y62%/E33% · vs. Baltimore Orioles – Wednesday, April 17th

Through 151 plate appearances in 2019, the Orioles are currently putting up 0.294 wOBA (18th), 0.130 ISO (22nd) and striking out 28.5% of the time (23rd) against RHP on the road. Because you want to know, last year in the same split they posted a 0.296 wOBA (24th), 0.154 ISO (21st) and struck out 26.0% of the time (28th). The Orioles are skill-challenged.

Chirinos has come out of the gate strong. Through two starts (Astros at home and Giants on the road) he has a 0.75 ERA, 3.53 xFIP, 0.42 WHIP and 29.0K% in 12 innings. Last season in 89.2 innings he put up a 3.5 ERA, 4.04 xFIP, 1.22 WHIP and 20.3 K%. He’s not a strikeout machine but he gets the job done and that should continue against the Orioles.

Extra Cheese

Starting this season I’ll be suggesting a two-start pitcher for the upcoming week. Please bear in mind that things can change after this article is posted. Injuries, rain delays, managerial moves, etc. can happen. The world is an imperfect place; screws fall out all the time.

LHP Matthew Boyd, DET
Owned Y69%/E44% · vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Tue Apr 16) & vs. Chicago White Sox (Sun Apr 21)

While the opponents offer something to take advantage of, this is more about Boyd himself. His ownership has been climbing steadily since the beginning of the season and rightfully so. He’s seems to be truly breaking out in 2019. Through three starts (17.1 innings) he has a 2.60 ERA, 2.57 xFIP, 1.15 WHIP and 40.3 K%. Last season he put up a 4.39 ERA, 4.72 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP and 22.4 K%. He’s worth owning in all formats at this point.

Next week he faces the Pirates who did alright facing southpaws in 2018: 0.315 wOBA (15th), 0.163 ISO (11th) and 21.2 K% (7th). So far in 2019 they aren’t faring as well: 0.269 wOBA (27th), 0.024 ISO (30th) and 22.4 K% (14th).

Next weekend he gets the White Sox who were in the bottom third of the league versus LHP: 0.306 wOBA (20th), 0.143 ISO (20th) and 27.8 K% (30th). They aren’t doing much better so far in 2019: 0.294 wOBA (22nd), 0.128 ISO (19th) and 26.9 K% (24th).

If Boyd is on your waiver wire then pick him up now and thank me later.

MLB Opening Day Excitement, Sage Fantasy Baseball Advice for the Season Ahead

By Leave a Comment

Dr. A. Bartlett Giamatti

Former MLB Commissioner Dr. A. Bartlett Giamatti (WikiPedia; New York Times)

“It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone.” – A. Bartlett Giamatti

Opening Day Excitement

  • 2009 Indians – Coming off a 81-81 record with reigning AL Cy Young Winner, Cliff Lee, many were picking the Indians to come out of the AL Central.
  • 2010 Mariners – Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, Junior Griffey and Ichiro. Everyone was predicting them to win the AL West.
  • 2011 Twins – coming off a 94 win season while winning the AL Central and getting Joe Nathan back, things were looking good for a run at the postseason.
  • 2012 Red Sox – coming off a historic collapse in 2011, Boston was favored to win the AL Pennant.
  • 2013 White Sox – coming off 85 wins and just missing the playoffs with Chris Sale and Jake Peavy many were picking them to contend in the AL Central.
  • 2014 Rangers – after winning 90+ games four seasons in a row, many were predicting Texas to be right in the thick of things.
  • 2015 Athletics – coming off an 88 win season and losing a heartbreaking 1-0 Wild Card game to the Royals, some were expecting them to be a factor in the AL West.
  • 2016 Diamondbacks – Adding Zack Greinke to a 79 win team had many predicting Arizona to make a move in the AL West.
  • 2017 Giants – coming off three straight season with 84+ wins and a rotation with Bumgarner, Cueto and Samardzija everyone was penciling them in for the playoffs.

All of the teams listed above* were expecting big things heading into the season. All of them finished with less than 70 wins. This goes to show you that Mr. Giamatti was right, baseball will break your heart. Many things will happen from now until the regular season ends on the last Sunday in September. I’m here to help you prepare with some fantasy baseball advice for the long road ahead.

* You are probably asking why there is no representative for 2018. There were eight teams with less than 70 wins last year (Orioles, Tigers, White Sox, Royals, Rangers, Marlins, Reds and Padres). None of them were expected to be much better than they actually were.

Fantasy Baseball Advice

Roster Evaluation

When preparing for your fantasy baseball draft you evaluate players and what they are projected to do, at that particular point in time, for the upcoming season. Once the games begin, things will change. Injuries. Benchings. Trades. You get the picture. Loose screws fall out all the time; the world is an imperfect place. The roster you end up with in Autumn will not be the same one you drafted in the Spring.

I like to look over my roster daily and evaluate each of the starters by asking myself, “Is he a starter and is he a top starter?” What do I mean by that? A true starter in your fanasy baseball league should be one of the top N players at his position, where N is the number of teams in your league. For example, if you are in a 12 team league then your shortstop should be one of the top 12 shortstops. Otherwise you’re already in a hole.

For your corner, middle and utility slots you ultimately want to have players that are ranking as top N at their primary position. For example, if your corner infielder is evaluated as the 11th best 3B then you are taking that possible starter away from another team, making them weaker than yours.

A top starter is, not only top N but, in the top half. Using the same 12 team league again, in a perfect world you want a top 6 shortstop. In fact you want to be in the top half for all of your positions.

For outfield and pitching, where you start more than one typically, I tier them into SP1, SP2, SP3, etc. I then try and have a player in the top half of each tier, at a minimum. Ideally you would like to have your #2 SP evaluated as an SP1, or your #3 OF as an OF2. This gives you a nice advantage over many teams.

Turnover Your Bench

If you feel that all of your current starters are in the top half at their position then turn your attention to your bench. If you feel that you have a surplus of talent, look to make a trade with another team to shore up a spot where you feel you are weak.

My bench is typically fluid throughout the season. I’m constantly moving players in and out. I’m rostering latest callups to see if they produce. I’m rostering players that I evaluate as starters and should be rostered but are not currently. Again, this is weakening other teams, thereby making yours stronger.

Don’t fall into the trap that your roster is perfect the way it is… evaluate constantly.

When To Let Go

Early in the season, you must work to fix the mistakes you made in your draft. Trust me, you made some mistakes. Just don’t discover them too late.

Sometimes it is obvious like injury, benching or demotion when to drop a player. What about that underperformer that still gets playing time but just isn’t living up to his projections?

There is no hard or fast rule on when to “cut bait” on those guys. Your early draft picks you’re going to want to hang on to longer than your late round flyers. My general rule of thumb is to hand them their walking papers after X number of weeks; where X equals 24 minus the round the player was drafted. For example, you drafted an outfielder in the 17th round. Come week seven (24-17), I would look to replace him with someone better.

Trading

Theoretically, after your draft the players out on the wire are there for a reason. They were not “draft worthy.” That means that the best way to improve your team early in the season is with trades as you are hoping to obtain other “draft worthy” talent. Unfortunately, most owners are attached to the players they drafted and overestimate the worth of their players while underestimating the value of yours. As the season goes on and owners distance themselves from the draft they tend to more reasonably value their drafted players.

Later in the season I’ve found that most trades are for particular stats to help you move up in the standings. You might be low in stolen bases or steals but high in ERA and WHIP so you swap a pitcher for a closer or speed merchant. In keeper leagues, be on the lookout for the fire sale when an owner gives up on his team and tries to trade away all of his players for future assets.

My best trade advice is to always look at your offer from both sides. Ask yourself if the other owner would make the trade. How does it help them? The best trades are those that help both teams. Don’t offer three players that can be found on the wire for one stud player. Would you trade away one of your studs for three guys that you could find on the wire? Why would you expect anyone else to do it?

The Wire

Making a trade that benefits both teams can be hard to accomplish. More often than not you will be forced to improve your team via the waiver wire. Relying on the players you drafted isn’t enough.

Below is the analysis I did on two leagues from last season. I determined the percentage of total stats that came from drafted players vs. players found on the wire.

Both leagues are 12 team, standard 5×5 roto with 13 hitters using 1 catcher and 5 outfielders, 9 pitchers and 3 bench spots (Razzball) or 4 bench spots (RotoBaller).

HittingRazzball DraftedRazzball WireRotoBaller DraftedRotoBall WireBoth DraftedBoth Wire
At Bats72%28%72%28%72%28%
Runs75%25%74%26%74%26%
Home Runs74%26%75%25%75%25%
RBI74%26%73%27%74%26%
Steals84%16%78%22%81%19%
AVG.265.252.265.250.265.251
PitchingRazzball DraftedRazzball WireRotoBaller DraftedRotoBall WireBoth DraftedBoth Wire
Innings71%29%71%29%71%29%
Wins75%25%74%26%75%25%
Saves73%27%71%29%72%28%
Strikeouts73%27%72%28%73%27%
ERA3.494.293.554.153.524.22
WHIP1.171.321.191.281.181.30

Now, the first thing you should’ve noticed (I did) was that the ratio stats are quite a bit better from the drafted players as they are from those found on the wire.

Where the wire can really help you is the counting stats. For all but stolen bases you can find anywhere from 25-29% of what you’ll need on the wire. What you can’t see here are the raw numbers, but let’s look at runs. In the Razzball league there were 11,257 runs counted and 2,861 came from the wire. The difference between 1st place in runs and last place was 439 runs. You can make up ground in those counting stats… at the expense of your ratios.

The hardest counting stat to find on the wire is stolen bases. There are some out there but you will have to be quick as they are a very desired commodity. In fact, stolen base attempts has been declining every year over the past five seasons.
Drafting your ratios and steals becomes all the more clearer with this analysis.

Conclusion

Constantly evaluate and look for opportunities to improve your team. It is exciting today is Opening Day! Don’t let that excitement dissuade you from the marathon ahead. If you don’t put in the time, then baseball, and your fantasy baseball team, will surely break your heart.

The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational Draft Recap #TGFBI Part 2

By 1 Comment

Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves

Chris is excited about his team in The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, or TGFBI for short. Maybe even as excited as Atlanta Braves’ Freddie Freeman, Chris’ 2nd round pick. Here is part two of his draft recap.

Last week I wrote about the first 10 picks of my draft in League 21 of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI). In this piece I’m going to take you all the way through pick 30.

Quick reminder that I’m picking from the 10th slot in the draft, and using the ATC projections in my Draft Buddy setup. I’m also showing you, the reader, how I use my Target Percentages philosophy/method during a fantasy baseball draft.

When last we spoke my Target Percentages through 10 rounds were as follows:

NameHRRRBISBAVG
Through Round 1057%56%57%73%4.50
NameWSVKERAWHIP
Through Round 1032%48%35%3.754.75

With half of my starting hitters drafted I’m over 50% in all counting stats and in the positive with batting average. All good. The down side is that I’ll be drafting hitters with less than desirable profiles, as well as not one, but two starting catchers which should be filed somewhere under cruel and unusual punishment.

As for pitching, I clearly have some work to do. I only have two starters (Chris Sale & Charlie Morton) to go with one closer (Kenley Jansen). I’ll be looking to bolster my staff sooner rather than later in this draft. Which leads me to…

Pick 11.10, 160th overall – SP Andrew Heaney

Heaney, Jose Quintana or Rick Porcello. The hit to ratios is too much with Quintana or Porcello. I can make the difference in wins with RPs.

NameWSVKERAWHIP
Quintana13%0%12%-1.25-2.00
Heaney11%0%12%-1.00-0.50
Porcello15%0%12%-2.50-1.00

Heaney bounced back nicely from Tommy John surgery in 2018 with 180 strikeouts, a 4.15 ERA, 3.68 xFIP and a 1.20 WHIP in 180 innings. A sub-4.00 ERA appears to be achievable in 2019.

NameWSVKERAWHIP
Prev. Pitching Total32%48%35%3.754.75
Heaney11%0%12%-1.00-0.50
New Pitching Total43%48%47%2.754.25

Pick 12.06, 171st overall – RP Jose Alvarado

David Robertson went at 12.03 to Kenny Butrym. He was someone I was hoping to get here. Closer is a delicate position most years, and 2019 is no exception. There are a handful of “named” closers and they go quickly. On my board I have 3 left in this tier: Will Smith, Jose Alvarado and Cody Allen (ADP 11.11). I could possibly get Smith later (ADP 14.06).

Alvarado posted an elite 30.4% strikeout rate last season. The only thing holding him back from being an elite closer is playing for the Tampa Bay Rays and their blatant disregard for running a conventional bullpen.

NameWSVKERAWHIP
Prev. Pitching Total43%48%47%2.754.25
Alvarado3%29%5%0.50-0.25
New Pitching Total46%77%52%3.254.00

Pick 13.10, 190th overall – 1B Eric Hosmer

I know, everyone hates Hosmer. But, he is the highest rated player left on my board by a decent amount. I didn’t expect to draft my UT player this early, but I can’t pass up the value.

Hosmer’s batting average since 2011:

  • Even years 0.232, 0.270, 0.266 and 0.253
  • Odd years: 0.293, 0.302, 0.297 and 0.318 – Psst! 2019 is an odd year!
NameHRRRBISBAVG
Prev. Batting Total57%56%57%73%4.50
Hosmer7%8%8%4%0.50
New Batting Total64%64%65%77%5.00

If you’ve been paying attention, you may have realized that I don’t have a 3B yet. By my count, the top 23 have been taken off the board and I don’t have one of them. In my opinion, third base goes 33 deep and the difference between #33 and #15 is about $5.

With 6 bats left for my starting lineup, I feel I am in great shape. I will definitely be making withdrawals from that +5.00 batting average to get to 100% in the counting stats.

Pick 14.06, 201st overall – SP Ross Stripling

This pick was made in the middle of the “Kershaw is dead” hysteria last week. I had my eye on Stripling even before Nick Pollack of PitcherList said he was grabbing up all shares of Stripling on the Benched with Bubba podcast. He’s one of the few starters still on the board that doesn’t hurt your ratios in some way. This was probably a reach but I feel comfortable with the decision (even if it looks like Kershaw apparently didn’t die).

NameWSVKERAWHIP
Prev. Pitching Total46%77%52%3.254.00
Stripling8%0%8%0.250.00
New Pitching Total54%77%60%3.504.00

Stripling brings me to 4 SP and 2 RP. I’ll be drafting a few sub-optimal starters to get me to 100% in wins and strikeouts. The cost will be those ratios.

Pick 15.10, 220th overall – OF Max Kepler

Kyle Seager just sent me his resumé for my open 3B position. He’s at the top of my list but I have another candidate in my mind. Someone even cheaper than Seager. With that, I shift focus to the outfield. The top two on my board are Odubel Herrera and Kepler. I decide to go with Kepler for the HR.

He lowered his K% and raised his BB% last season and was rewarded with… a .224 batting average? Ugh, a .236 BABIP will do that. Crossing my fingers for a little regression. Regardless, he appears to be on track for 20+ homeruns, 70+ runs, 70+ RBI and a handful of stolen bases.

NameHRRRBISBAVG
Prev. Batting Total64%64%65%77%5.00
Kepler8%7%7%4%-1.00
New Batting Total72%71%72%81%4.00

Pick 16.06, 231st overall – RP Andrew Miller

I think Miller has a solid chance at getting the closer gig for the Cardinals. Even if he doesn’t, his numbers will surely help you over the course of the season. He’s a bit of a health risk and he’s coming off a down season where he posted a 4.24 ERA; his worst since becoming a full-time reliever in 2012.

NameWSVKERAWHIP
Prev. Pitching Total54%77%60%3.504.00
Miller4%13%6%0.750.50
New Pitching Total58%90%66%4.254.50

Pick 17.10, 250th overall – C Welington Castillo

It says in the rules that I have to start a catcher. Well, actually two catchers. I chose Castillo mostly because he seems to have a lock on being the primary catcher for the Chicago White Sox and he’s got some pop without killing your average.

NameHRRRBISBAVG
Prev. Batting Total72%71%72%81%4.00
Castillo5%4%5%1%-0.25
New Batting Total77%75%77%82%3.75

Pick 18.06, 261st overall – 3B Maikel Franco

Remember back when I said I had another candidate in mind for third base? Got’em. Two rounds later I get basically the same player with slightly fewer runs and RBI but with a much better batting average.

NameHRRRBISBAVG
Seager (drafted 16.05)8%7%8%1%-1.50
Franco8%6%7%1%-0.25

Franco has lowered his K% over the last three years while increasing his ISO. No one is talking about him this season, but he seems like a lock for 20+ homeruns, 60+ runs and 70+ RBI while batting somewhere between .250 to .270. I’ll take that at this point in the draft.

NameHRRRBISBAVG
Prev. Batting Total77%75%77%82%3.75
Franco8%6%7%1%-0.25
New Batting Total85%81%84%83%3.50

Pick 19.10, 280th overall – OF Odubel Herrera

I almost took Herrera back in the 15th when I took Kepler. He is still there staring me down.

Many are scared off by his recent hamstring injury. Not me. While he hit a career best 22 bombs in 2018 it came at the expense of his batting average (career low .255) and stolen bases (career low 5). I’m gambling that 2018 was the exception and he gets back on track.

NameHRRRBISBAVG
Prev. Batting Total85%81%84%83%3.50
Herrera6%6%7%6%0.00
New Batting Total91%87%91%89%3.50

Pick 20.06, 291st overall – SP Jake Junis

Well, we all knew this time would come. I’ve been banking up those ratios for this moment. He’s the highest ranked remaining starter on my list. That’s about all I can say about him. He will not be the last starter I draft. I’m hoping to get a few more and stream them in and out of my starting lineup in hopes of minimizing the damage they do to my ratios.

NameWSVKERAWHIP
Prev. Pitching Total58%90%66%4.254.50
Junis11%0%11%-2.00-1.00
New Pitching Total69%90%77%2.253.50

Pick 21.10, 310th overall – OF Kole Calhoun

My 5th outfielder that should help me a little bit in steals. From 2013-2017 his BABIP was .303 which is right around league average. Last year it was .241, so I’m betting on things getting back to “normal” for him in 2019.

NameHRRRBISBAVG
Prev. Batting Total91%87%91%89%3.50
Calhoun6%7%7%4%-1.75
New Batting Total97%94%98%93%1.75

Here are the rest of my picks:

  • Pick 22.06, 321st overall – 3B Jeimer Candelario – Hoping the wrist injury is behind him (.225 ISO before; .148 after).
  • Pick 23.10, 340th overall – SP Zack Eflin – Up and down 2018; hoping for a bounceback.
  • Pick 24.06, 351st overall – RP Ryan Brasier – Decent chance to be the closer in Boston.
  • Pick 25.10, 370th overall – 2B Starlin Castro – Why not? Projected for 14+ homeruns, 64+ RBI, 60+ runs with a .266+ average.
  • Pick 26.06, 381st overall – C Tyler Flowers – Well, I have to start 2 catchers.
  • Pick 27.10, 400th overall – SP Trevor Cahill – Great start in 2018 (3.12 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 25 K% in first 13 games) before coming back down to Earth.
  • Pick 28.06, 411st overall – RP Diego Castillo – Used by the Rays as an “opener” but has closer stuff (29.3 K%).
  • Pick 29.10, 430th overall – 3B Zack Cozart – Drafted right before his injury news came out.
  • Pick 30.06, 441st overall – SP Robbie Erlin – Last year had a 4.21 ERA but a 3.41 xFIP.

Closing Thoughts

Here are my starting bats:

NameHRRRBISBAVG
C – Wellington Castillo5%4%5%1%-0.25
C – Tyler Flowers3%4%4%0%-0.50
1B – Freddie Freeman9%9%10%6%3.50
2B – Brian Dozier9%8%8%9%-1.50
3B – Maikel Franco8%6%7%1%-0.25
SS – Xander Bogaerts7%8%9%8%1.75
OF – Starling Marte6%8%7%24%1.25
OF – Eddie Rosario9%8%8%7%1.25
OF – Max Kepler8%7%7%4%-1.00
OF – Odubel Herrera6%6%7%6%0.00
OF – Kole Calhoun6%7%7%4%-1.75
MI – Tim Anderson6%7%6%18%-0.75
CI – Matt Olson11%8%9%1%-1.00
UT – Eric Hosmer7%8%8%4%0.50
Starters Total100%98%102%93%1.25

I fell just a bit shy in runs and a good bit in steals of my 100% goal but I’m ahead in RBI and batting average. All in all, I’m in good shape. My bench hitters:

NameHRRRBISBAVG
Jeimer Candelario3B6%7%6%0.02
Starlin Castro2B5%6%6%0.04
Zack Cozart3B5%6%5%0.01

With his recent injury, Cozart will be the first to be dropped. Here is my core pitching staff as I see it today:

NameWSVKERAWHIP
Chris Sale16%0%17%3.004.00
Charlie Morton13%0%12%0.00-0.50
Andrew Heaney11%0%12%-1.00-0.50
Ross Stripling8%0%8%0.250.00
Kenley Jansen3%48%6%0.751.25
Jose Alvarado3%29%5%0.50-0.25
Andrew Miller4%13%6%0.750.50
Core Pitching Total58%90%66%4.254.50

And here are the players I will rotate in and out weekly based on matchup, etc.:

NameWSVKERAWHIP
Jake Junis11%0%11%-2.00-1.00
Zach Eflin12%0%9%-1.75-1.00
Trevor Cahill8%0%8%-1.25-2.00
Robbie Erlin6%0%6%-1.50-0.75
Ryan Brasier3%18%4%0.000.00

If Brasier ends up getting the closing gig in Boston I will make him part of the core group. As for the starters listed here, I’d be shocked if any of them are still here when the season ends. I’ll be streaming starting pitchers throughout the season.

Well, I hope you got something out of this exercise. If I had to pin down the overall arching message of the two articles it is that the more you bank your ratios the more you have to withdraw from to get the counting stats. Wish me luck in the TGFBI!

MENU