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Draft Buddy RotoBowl I – Update

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Week 5 is in the books and I’m way overdue on giving you an update on how the roto fantasy football league is going. In case you missed it back in late-July, here is the origin story, participants and league details of this unique fantasy football league format.

I’m currently sitting in 4th place overall… but in trouble.

Draft Buddy RotoBowl I Standings

Draft Buddy RotoBowl I standings through NFL Week 5.

This update is as of the end of NFL Week 5, but check the current standings to follow along at home.

Passing Stats

My options: Drew Brees, Jameis Winston

  • Passing Yards – 1666 (2nd)
  • Passing Yards per Attempt – 8.7 (2nd)
  • Passing Touchdowns – 11 (T-4th)

As Brees goes, I go. Barring injury I should stay towards the top of the passing categories. I had Brees as the 3rd best QB going into the draft behind Wilson and Brady. I ended up getting him in the 6th round as the 6th QB off the board.

Receiving Stats

My WR options: Doug Baldwin, Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, Kenny Stills, Tyler Boyd, Taylor Gabriel, Allen Hurns

My TE options: Jordan Reed, Vernon Davis, Vance McDonald

  • Receptions – 146 (11th)
  • Receiving Yards – 1905 (8th)
  • Receiving Touchdowns – 14 (T-3rd)

Work to be done here. Touchdowns are more random so I shouldn’t expect to stay towards the top in that category. Getting Baldwin and Jeffery back will (hopefully) help me move up in receptions and yards. In a 15 team league you’re going to see the likes of Gabriel and Boyd contributing.

Rushing Stats

My options: Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Doug Martin, D’Onta Foreman.

  • Rushing Yards – 687 (9th)
  • Average Yards per Rush – 3.7 (15th)
  • Rushing Touchdowns – 5 (T-11th)

Losing Rex Burkhead and Jeremy Hill to injury didn’t help my poor showing. Even the guys not injured are dragging me down. Henry is pulling down my yards per rush and I don’t have any other options. I missed out on Wendell Smallwood this week and took a flyer on Kapri Bibbs hoping Adrian Peterson and/or Chris Thompson can’t go this week. Unfortunately for me I can’t confuse hope for a plan. I may be forced to try and pull off a trade to land a RB worth a damn and try and improve my standing in these rushing stats.

Early Observations on the Roto Format

Too much emphasis on one QB? The perfect roto league would seem to have the ability to start more than one QB each week so that the passing stats aren’t driven predominantly by one player. In roto baseball it would be like tracking home runs and RBI hit by catchers separately from other hitters.

You still need balance. I know this in roto baseball and I thought I knew this coming into this league. I’m in a bad spot with my RB and need to adapt. Much like in roto baseball you need to aim for finishing high in each category. Not necessarily 1st in each but in the 3rd to 4th place territory.

Make sure you have your lineup in each week! Unlike the head-to-head format where you can start a player on a bye and risk just losing the week, in roto that wasted opportunity could create a gap too big to make up. Take Rushing Yards for example, I’m in 9th place: 51 yards behind 8th; 149 yards behind 7th; 283 yards behind 6th and 364 yards behind 5th… and that is with filling out my lineup each week!

Best/Worst through First 5 Weeks

CategoryBestWorst
Passing Yards464 – Week 4 / @MStepney71118 – Week 1 / @MikeKAdamson*
Passing TDs5 – Week 3 / @kingsperry370 – 10 Times
Receptions54 – Week 2 / @Razzball_MB17 – Week 5 / @Roto_Chris
Receiving Yards646 – Week 5 @MikeJAdamson172 – Week 4 / @PJHofer07
Receiving TDs7 – Week 3 / @FantasyTaz0 – 5 Times
Rushing Yards447 – Week 2 / @PJHofer0738 – Week 4 / @Razzball_MB*
Rushing TDs4 – Week 1 / @PJHofer070 – 24 Times
Turnovers0 – 16 Times5 – Week 1 / @FFzinger

*Removed @EvFWFB since he hasn’t set a lineup the past few weeks.

Straight Cheese Streaming Starting Pitchers – 2018 Post Mortem

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Anibal Sanchez, Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves Anibal Sanchez was one of Chris’ most used pitchers in his weekly streaming starting pitchers analysis – Straight Cheese. Texas Rangers were his most picked on opponent. Here is the 2018 season review.

Fantasy baseball owners, this is the place where you come to get the Straight Cheese on less than desirable, questionably talented, less than 50% owned starting pitchers you can use for a spot start. Streaming pitchers is necessary to get those all-important counting stats for your roto league without drop-kicking your ratio stats into submission.

But before we dive into the 2018 post mortem, let’s take a look back at my picks from Week 24.

Week 24 Review

NameDateGSIPERHBBKDecERAWHIP
Eric Lauer SDP9/14 vs TEX15.002314ND3.600.80
Vince Velasquez PHI9/15 vs MIA12.004414ND18.002.50
Robbie Erlin SDP9/16 vs TEX15.331606L1.691.13
Shane Bieber CLE9/16 vs DET16.005904L7.501.50
Total for Week 418.3312222181-25.891.31

Not a strong finish to the season. In fact, can we just ignore September? It was easily my worst month.

Monthly Totals

Month GS IP K W-L ERA WHIP
April 15 79.00 80 6-4 4.90 1.51
May 16 94.33 86 5-5 3.72 1.09
June 5 31.00 31 3-0 1.74 0.97
July 12 73.34 71 7-3 2.70 1.16
August 14 88.33 86 10-1 1.83 0.88
September 9 34.00 34 0-5 9.00 1.94
TOTAL 71 400.00 388 31-18 3.64 1.20

Still, 400 innings of 3.64 era and 1.20 whip are commendable considering all pitchers were less than 50% owned at the time. Some pitchers that ended 2018 with an era higher than 3.64 and a whip higher than 1.20: Jake Arrieta, German Marquez, Dallas Keuchel, Cole Hamels, Jose Berrios, Julio Teheran and Jose Quintana… to name a few.

Most Frequent Opponent

The team I found myself picking on the most was the Texas Rangers. In fact, I went against them 12 times this year (five more than the next most frequent: Baltimore and San Diego). My line when picking a starting pitcher versus the Rangers: 2.39 era, 1.25 whip, 57 strikeouts and a 6-2 record in 64 innings.

Interestingly enough, here is my line for starting pitchers versus Rangers, Orioles and Padres: 2.85 era, 1.19 whip, 149 strikeouts and a 15-3 record in 148 2/3 innings (26 games). That’s Mike Clevinger with a lower era.

Most Frequent Pitchers Recommended

There were four pitchers that I suggested three times this year:

  • Anibal Sanchez: 1.53 era, 0.85 whip, 17 strikeouts, 1 win in 17 2/3 innings
  • Kyle Gibson: 3.66 era, 1.17 whip, 21 strikeouts, 2 wins in 19 2/3 innings
  • Lance Lynn: 4.91 era, 1.77 whip, 17 strikeouts, 1 win in 14 2/3 innings
  • Trevor Cahill: 1.84 era, 1.16 whip, 23 strikeouts, 1 win in 14 2/3 innings

All four combined: 2.97 era, 1.21 whip, 78 strikeouts, 5 wins in 66 2/3 innings (12 games). That’s 66 2/3 innings of Noah Syndergaard with a slightly better era and more strikeouts.

My Best Calls

  1. Ross Stripling (5/25 vs SD): 6 2/3 ip, 0 er, 6 h, 0 bb, 10 k, 1 win; 60 FanDuel points, 35.4 DraftKings points
  2. Trevor Cahill (8/5 vs DET): 6 ip, 0 er, 3 h, 1 bb, 10 k, 1 win; 58 FanDuel points, 35.1 DraftKings points
  3. Trevor Cahill (5/5 vs BAL): 6 ip, 0 er, 4 h, 1 bb, 12 k, 0 win; 58 FanDuel points, 34.5 DraftKings points
  4. Daniel Mengden (5/26 vs ARI): 9 ip, 0 er, 2 h, 0 bb, 5 k, 1 win; 52 FanDuel points, 38.05 DraftKings points
  5. Danny Duffy (7/14 @ CHW): 7 ip, 0 er, 4 h, 3 bb, 8 k, 1 win; 55 FanDuel points, 31.55 DraftKings points

My Worst Calls

  1. Brian Johnson (9/2 @ CHW): 1 1/3 ip, 4 er, 7 h, 1 bb, 2 k, 0 win; -2 FanDuel points, -5.8 DraftKings points
  2. Daniel Mengden (4/28 @ HOU): 2 1/3 ip, 4 er, 6 h, 1 bb, 1 k, 0 win; -2 FanDuel points, -4.95 DraftKings points
  3. Zack Wheeler (5/4 vs COL): 6 ip, 8 er, 10 h, 3 bb, 3 k, 0 win; 3 FanDuel points, -4.3 DraftKings points
  4. Trevor Cahill (9/9 vs TEX): 2 2/3 ip, 3 er, 2 h, 6 bb, 1 k, 0 win; 2 FanDuel points, -2.8 DraftKings points
  5. Steven Matz (5/19 vs ARI): 4 ip, 4 er, 6 h, 1 bb, 2 k, 0 win; 6 FanDuel points, 0.8 DraftKings points

I still can’t figure out #4 on the Worst list. Cahill vs Texas should have been a slam dunk.

Well, that closes the book on Straight Cheese for 2018. I hope you enjoyed my work and I look forward to getting back to the grind in 2019!

And remember, my suggestions aren’t ludicrous. They’re @Roto_Chris.

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Friday September 28

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Atlanta Braves are facing a RHP on road (Jerad Eickhoff PHI who has faced 11 batters). On FanDuel the Braves are currently putting up 2.11 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP on road and Jerad Eickhoff is currently allowing 148% more PPA than the MLB average (2.12 PPA). Their modified PPA is 3.12 (2.11 x 148%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

When Opposing Pitcher indicates TBD/Bullpen or hasn’t faced any MLB batters this season the lineup’s PPA shown is their overall PPA at home or away.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.61
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Braves RHP on road Jerad Eickhoff PHI 11 2.11 x 148% 3.12 +1.01 1.62 x 152% 2.46 +0.84
Astros RHP on road David Hess BAL 428 2.30 x 121% 2.79 +0.49 1.73 x 120% 2.08 +0.35
Twins RHP at home Lucas Giolito CHW 762 2.34 x 118% 2.77 +0.42 1.77 x 114% 2.02 +0.25
Brewers RHP at home Jordan Zimmermann DET 535 2.27 x 113% 2.57 +0.30 1.72 x 114% 1.96 +0.24
Rockies RHP at home Joe Ross WSN 48 2.47 x 102% 2.51 +0.04 1.88 x 101% 1.89 +0.01
Mariners LHP at home Martin Perez TEX 387 1.85 x 131% 2.42 +0.57 1.44 x 131% 1.89 +0.45
Yankees LHP on road Brian Johnson BOS 420 2.30 x 105% 2.40 +0.11 1.74 x 106% 1.84 +0.10
Indians RHP on road Ian Kennedy KCR 493 2.17 x 110% 2.39 +0.22 1.66 x 110% 1.82 +0.17
White Sox RHP on road Chase De Jong MIN 52 2.03 x 116% 2.36 +0.33 1.56 x 117% 1.82 +0.26
Red Sox LHP at home J.A. Happ NYY 709 2.49 x 95% 2.35 -0.13 1.86 x 95% 1.76 -0.10
Athletics RHP on road Jaime Barria LAA 518 2.44 x 95% 2.32 -0.12 1.85 x 96% 1.78 -0.07
Marlins RHP on road Corey Oswalt NYM 264 1.90 x 122% 2.32 +0.42 1.46 x 121% 1.77 +0.31
Diamondbacks LHP on road Eric Lauer SDP 477 2.07 x 109% 2.27 +0.19 1.58 x 110% 1.74 +0.15
Angels RHP at home Mike Fiers OAK 696 2.34 x 95% 2.22 -0.12 1.77 x 97% 1.72 -0.05
Blue Jays RHP on road Tyler Glasnow TBR 443 2.08 x 98% 2.04 -0.04 1.58 x 96% 1.52 -0.07
Rays LHP at home Thomas Pannone TOR 155 2.12 x 94% 1.99 -0.13 1.61 x 94% 1.52 -0.09
Tigers RHP on road Zach Davies MIL 263 1.79 x 107% 1.92 +0.13 1.39 x 107% 1.49 +0.10
Dodgers LHP on road Madison Bumgarner SFG 525 2.14 x 90% 1.92 -0.22 1.62 x 91% 1.47 -0.15
Royals RHP at home Mike Clevinger CLE 787 2.14 x 88% 1.88 -0.26 1.65 x 89% 1.46 -0.19
Mets RHP at home Jose Urena MIA 688 1.93 x 94% 1.82 -0.11 1.47 x 95% 1.39 -0.08
Phillies RHP at home Mike Foltynewicz ATL 727 2.20 x 83% 1.82 -0.38 1.66 x 83% 1.38 -0.29
Orioles RHP at home Gerrit Cole HOU 776 2.15 x 81% 1.75 -0.40 1.64 x 81% 1.33 -0.31
Padres LHP at home Patrick Corbin ARI 782 2.12 x 81% 1.73 -0.39 1.60 x 82% 1.32 -0.28
Rangers LHP on road Wade LeBlanc SEA 639 1.67 x 97% 1.61 -0.06 1.29 x 98% 1.26 -0.03
Nationals LHP on road Kyle Freeland COL 815 1.96 x 81% 1.59 -0.38 1.48 x 83% 1.23 -0.25
Giants LHP at home Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD 302 1.94 x 78% 1.51 -0.43 1.50 x 81% 1.22 -0.28

Other Games (Not Main Slate)

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.61
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Reds RHP at home Nick Kingham PIT 322 2.16 x 121% 2.60 +0.45 1.64 x 119% 1.94 +0.30
Pirates RHP on road Anthony DeSclafani CIN 465 2.10 x 115% 2.42 +0.32 1.61 x 115% 1.85 +0.24
Twins RHP at home Reynaldo Lopez CHW 773 2.34 x 99% 2.32 -0.03 1.77 x 98% 1.74 -0.03
Cubs RHP at home Adam Wainwright STL 159 2.15 x 98% 2.11 -0.04 1.64 x 98% 1.61 -0.03
Cardinals RHP on road Kyle Hendricks CHC 779 2.21 x 91% 2.02 -0.19 1.68 x 93% 1.56 -0.12
White Sox RHP on road Jose Berrios MIN 770 2.03 x 93% 1.89 -0.15 1.56 x 93% 1.44 -0.11