Rick, Author at DraftBuddy.com

Fantasy Impact from MLB Trade Deadline Deals – Machado, Osuna, Archer

August 3, 2018 By Rick Leave a Comment

A familiar face – 3B Manny Machado – in his new uni for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Many players traded places leading up to the MLB Trade Deadline. Rick gives us the fantasy impact of the key deals.

Holy that was a busy MLB trade deadline!

There were too many names traded to even try to cover them all. With every player going to a contender, a vacancy is created for a new player on a non-contending team and sometimes a player is blocked on the contending team with their new addition.

I do not intend to bother with trades like Zach Duke for Chase De Jong and Ryan Costello because the deal is too insignificant compared to the many bigger deals that went down. As the dust is settling, let’s see how the fantasy baseball landscape has changed as a result of the MLB trade deadline.

MLB Trade Deadline Deals

Manny Machado to the Dodgers

The biggest trade of all went down two weeks ago when Los Angeles Dodgers traded for Manny Machado. This guy will help any team’s offense, but his overall production could take a little bit of a dip going from the Baltimore Orioles bandbox to the pitcher’s haven at Chavez Ravine. But this guy is a stud and he will still put up good numbers anywhere.

Roberto Osuna to the Astros

Houston and Toronto traded closers with a bit of a tarnish. Houston grabbed Roberto Osuna right before he comes off suspension. The Astros are taking a bit of a public relations hit by adding a guy who was suspended for domestic abuse, but that won’t have any effect on your fantasy team. He is a relief ace and well worth adding if you can get him.

In return, Toronto acquired Ken Giles who was a darling closer before a mental meltdown lead him to a demotion to triple-A. The Blue Jays say he is going to be their closer as soon as he is promoted but unless your fantasy league collects points from minor league players, you are left to wait until Giles is promoted to Toronto to capitalize on that promise.

Asdrubal Cabrera to Phillies

In moving to Philadelphia, Asdrubal Cabrera’s value will remain stable, with maybe a few more runs scored. The most important value for Cabrera is that he is likely to pick up shortstop eligibility with the Phillies.

J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn to the Yankees

The Yanks added two starters to their starting rotation in different deals. Pitchers either thrive or wither when they end up in New York and I would bet on Happ to thrive. Count on wins and K’s as this veteran has pitched in the Big Apple many times as a visitor and should fit in quite nicely.

As for Lynn, there is no telling how he will do. He has had an off year and the unforgiving Bleacher Creatures might not take too well to him if he struggles out of the gate.

Zach Britton to New York Yankees, Jeurys Familia to Oakland, Brad Hand to Cleveland, Brad Brach to Atlanta, Keone Kela to Pittsburgh and Joakim Soria to Milwaukee

All six are out of their closer roles and into setup roles with their new teams. Their stats should remain steady except they will be trading their saves for holds.

Francisco Mejia to Padres

Mejia is a top-10 prospect and is the real deal. He’s an excellent contact hitter, developing power and will be an impact player. The San Diego Padres did very well here and have their catcher of the future for a couple of relievers that wouldn’t help a losing team win.

Mike Moustakas to Brewers

This was looking like a very solid move as the Milwaukee Brewers were adding a power bat to their lineup, but the move displaced Travis Shaw off of 3B to 2B, adding to his position flexibility. But then the Brewers made another deal…

Jonathan Schoop to Brewers

If Schoop plays his usual 2B, then a big logjam has blocked the Milwaukee River since the outfield and 1B are stacked up already. But Schoop could play shortstop, which is an offensive upgrade for the Brewers. I’m a big fan of Luis Ortiz, who was the most intriguing player going to Baltimore in the deal.

Chris Archer to Pirates

Archer is in desperate need of new scenery. I think a better team will inspire him to find his true self. The Pittsburgh Pirates had to send Austin Meadows to Tampa in the deal. The Pirates didn’t have room in their outfield for Meadows right now, but he will be a real asset for the Rays over time. A fair deal for both teams that should lead to an acceleration in production for both big names in the deal.

Wilson Ramos to Phillies

Ramos was having a good season for the Rays. Philadelphia couldn’t get consistency from their catchers so they had to spend on a backstop that will hopefully help them win a division crown. Ramos might see a slight uptick in RBI, but the other stats should remain steady.

Tommy Pham to Rays

I don’t get the Rays motivation here. Pham played well above his abilities in 2017 and this season was saw him come back down to earth. With the trade of Ramos, Archer and several other pitchers, the acquisition of a 30-year old who is not as good as his previous season makes me scratch my head. At any rate, don’t look for Pham to channel his 2017 season ever again.

Ian Kinsler to Red Sox

Kinsler is showing his age. Going to Boston won’t do a lot for his stats, since most of his good stuff is all used up. I would expect him to continue to struggle through this season even in a different uniform on a top team.

Cole Hamels to Cubs

Hamels is always a gamer. He’ll give you his best stuff, even if his best days are behind him… which they are. He’s still serviceable, but not spectacular any longer. He ought to give you slightly better ratios playing in the NL and more wins with a better offense, but this is not vintage Cole Hamels.

Eduardo Escobar to Diamondbacks

Escobar was hitting well for Minnesota Twins and gets the chance to do the same in Arizona because Jake Lamb couldn’t. I think the humidor will have minimum effects on Escobar’s value. Expect similar or slightly better numbers for Escobar in the desert.

Brian Dozier to Dodgers

Dozier is having a down year by his standards. There is no telling what the Dodgers just bought, but they are hoping to surround him with talent and re-ignite his power output. Dozier will get the bulk of the starts but will likely have to do a time-share.

Kevin Gausman to Braves

Atlanta Braves grabbed a lottery ticket for a handful of prospects. Gausman has great potential and frustratingly inconsistent results to show for his MLB time. He could become a stud or he might end up making fantasy owners continue pulling out their hair.

As I said off the top – that was a very active MLB trade deadline! None of this discussion mentions opportunities created by the trade for the vacancies. I hope to address this in the near future to see who was moved in each trade and see which player benefitted due to the newly created opening.

MLB All-Star Break Fantasy Baseball Buy-Sell Candidates

July 17, 2018 By Rick Leave a Comment

The MLB All-Star Game is today! Take stock of your fantasy baseball team and swing some trades to push you up the standings in the second half. Rick has some buy-sell candidates. Chicago Cubs SP Jon Lester is a sell.

We made it to the MLB All Star Break. Where does your fantasy baseball team stand? You should know if you are a buyer or a seller at this point of the season.

Yes, you are looking for guys coming off the DL and maybe you can pluck a guy from the waiver wire who has been under-performing, but this is the time to target owners who are out of it. Look for the guy who has no chance to get into the money and see if he is interested in trading an established player in his late twenties for a few young up-and-comers for next season.

Don’t be one of those fantasy owners that are in full-blown panic mode. Other than teams sitting comfortably at the top of your fantasy league standings, most owners are now willing to make major moves in order to plug roster holes.

Still, wise owners should focus on obtaining value at this point in the year, even if value-based moves unbalance your roster. With MLB teams at the midpoint in their schedule, there is still plenty of time for players to have big upswings in production. Here are some fantasy baseball buy-sell candidates.

Buy

RP Seranthony Dominguez, PHI
RP Victor Arano, PHI

The Phillies closer situation is a little muddy right now. Seranthony Dominguez hasn’t done a whole lot to lose his closer gig, but it looks like Victor Arano is dipping into Dominguez’s chances. The last two weeks saw Philadelphia give some save opportunities to Arano, earning the first three saves of his short career.

Arano has a 10.03 K/9 and a 3.09 ERA. As good as those numbers look, Dominguez is even better with a 11.50 K/9 and a 1.60 ERA. Dominguez pitched a save opportunity last Thursday, but it looks like there is no clear cut favorite.

I would wager that both will continue to get save chances, but Dominguez should get the bulk unless someone falters. Since it looks like a mix-and-match situation in Philly, Arano is well worth a waiver pickup if available. In all likelihood, you will need to trade for Dominguez and make sure you point out that he has been passed over for the last two save ops and was even an eighth inning setup man on Sunday to get the price lower.

OF Gregory Polanco, PIT

Gregory Polanco had a breakthrough season in 2016, where he showed power and speed. His 2017 season was marred by injuries that lead to developing bad habits. That saw him lose his swing first and then his starting position. Polanco’s 2018 started out with more of the same until he backed away from the plate a little and rediscovered that swing. Since June 15, he has hit .317 with 8 homers, 19 RBi, 15 R and has been moved into the number three slot in the batting order. I would say Polanco is back on track and the owner who can trade for him should reap the rewards.

Sell

SP Jon Lester, CHC

Jon Lester is playing with fire. Lester is a big name and when dangled in a trade, will get anyone’s attention. Make sure you point out his sparkling 2.58 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, not to mention a nifty 12 wins.

But, Lester’s 2018 is an illusion that will likely be not as magical in the second half. His K/9 is considerably lower than his career average (7.09 compared to 8.44), his BABIP is almost 60 points lower than his career average (.253 compared to .306), and LOB% is more than 10 points higher than his career average (83.6% compared to 73.7%).

SIERA sees him as a 4.64 pitcher and not the 2.58 he is sporting. In other words, MLB hitters aren’t taking advantage of an aging Lester. If he continues to pitch like he is, hitters will catch up to him and make his second half miserable.

RP Kyle Barraclough, MIA

Kyle Barraclough has been the Marlins closer for a few weeks now and his numbers look great, but unsustainable. His 1.28 ERA and 0.97 WHIP are partly due to his .158 BABIP and 92.8% strand rate. Those numbers are smoke and mirrors and SIERA says his ERA should be 3.88.

Considering that he also closes for one of the worst teams in baseball, the saves won’t be readily stacking up for him. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a good pitcher and occupies a valued position that can help a contender win. If you are in sell off mode, he’s the perfect player to trade away to bring in talented youth for next year.

2B Kolten Wong, STL

Kolten Wong put up back-to-back double-double seasons in 2014 and 2015. As a young second baseman, Wong was looking like a power-speed threat to ride for the next decade. Then injuries and back luck hit him and the shine disappeared.

His 2016 was miserable and 2017 saw him post a good batting average, but little else. He found some playing time recently and has made the most of it hitting .325 with 5 RBi and 2 SB since June 30. This might be your best chance to unload him to someone desperate for help at MI.

Streaming Starting Pitchers Week 12 – Estrada, Nova, Covey

June 21, 2018 By Rick Leave a Comment

Rick says strike while the iron is hot, and if you are looking for a pitcher to stream grab Toronto Blue Jays Marco Estrada off three straight quality starts, facing the Los Angeles Angels Friday.

Apparently I am taking this fantasy baseball thing a little too seriously. Just like my team, I am now on the DL. I have been battling vertigo since Sunday, and mostly losing. I hope this explains why this is a bit short.

We are searching for streaming starting pitchers, which often can look like the ramblings of a man who has lost his mind. So if you feel that is the case, blame the vertigo.

Streaming Starting Pitchers Week 12

Marco Estrada, TOR – at LAA · Fri Jun 22

Marco Estrada has somehow figured out how to pitch in the last two weeks. In those three starts, he has allowed 3 earned runs in 18.2 innings while striking out 19 and walking only 3 batters. Though one was against the lowly Baltimore Orioles, the other two were against the New York Yankees and Washington Nationals. Can this be true? Amazingly yes. A road trip to play the Los Angeles Angels awaits him on Friday, so grab a ride on that train while it’s rolling.

Ivan Nova, PIT – vs. ARI · Thu Jun 21

A guy I picked last week and feel that he can help you this week too is Ivan Nova. Since going on the DL, fantasy owners have avoided Nova like the sorority chick with the open cold sore. The Pirates host the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday and this is the type of matchup where he can give you 5-6 good innings, a bunch of punch outs, and maybe even a win.

Dylan Covey, CWS – vs. OAK · Sat Jun 23

Dylan Covey is a bit of a roll of the dice. He’s carrying a 2.90 ERA right now and the swinging Oakland A’s are coming to town on Saturday. Covey isn’t a strikeout pitcher, but the Athletics have a way of making everyone look like a strikeout pitcher. Covey ditched his 4-seam fastball and the new sinker approach has really helped his ground ball rate. This looks like a good play for the truly desperate.

Dereck Rodriguez, SF – vs. SD · Sun Jun 24

Here’s another guy I picked last week and feel that he can help you this week too. San Francisco’s Dereck Rodriguez is pitching pretty well since being inserted in the Giants rotation. The San Diego Padres come to town for a Sunday afternoon tilt, which bodes well for a half dozen K’s, good ratios and maybe even a win.

Paul Blackburn, OAK – at CWS · Sun Jun 24

Oakland’s Paul Blackburn isn’t as good as his 1.50 ERA suggests, but that’s what you get when you have only pitched in one game this season and you pitched well. He draws the White Sox on Sunday on Chicago’s South Side, both advantages go to Blackburn. He won’t rack up the K’s, but should give you good ratios and a good shot at the W.

German Marquez, COL – vs. MIA · Sun Jun 24

I don’t usually like Rockies pitchers at home, but the Miami Marlins are coming to town this weekend. Like most Colorado pitchers, German Marquez puts up much better ratios on the road, but how can you turn your back on a game against the anemic fish from Florida for a Sunday matchup? Marquez is striking out better than a batter per inning and has been a bit unlucky on batted balls in play and his strand rate, so he’s not as bad as his 5.13 ERA suggests. He likely won’t do your ratios any good, but K’s and a W are your target here.