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Salary Cap Woes—Five NHL Teams Destined To Struggle in 2010-11

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With the NHL regular season quickly drawing to a close, we begin to consider how the 2010-11 season could shape up. If the current top-heavy payrolls are any indication of how teams will fare next year, these five franchises could be in for long seasons.


5. Toronto Maple Leafs

As of right now, the Toronto Maple Leafs will pay defensemen $26.3 million in 2010-11—a whopping 46 percent of the entire salary cap. While it’s all but certainty that General Manager Brian Burke will find a suitable trading partner for Tomas Kaberle this offseason, the Leafs will still be left with three to five forward signings to make, not to mention the re-signing of rookie goaltender Jonas Gustavsson.

Simply put, Burkie may not have the cap freedom to effectively operate this summer. Looking ahead to next season, even if the Leafs are in the playoff hunt down the stretch in March 2011, they may not have the cap space to acquire a needed player at the deadline.


4. New York Rangers

Any team that pays a 32-point forward over $7 million will find themselves with cap trouble. That player is the Rangers’ second-line pivot, Chris Drury, but the issues don’t end there. Former offensive-defensemen Wade Redden and Michal Rozsival will collectively chew up $11.5 million next season.

To no one’s surprise, Marc Staal is posting career-highs in a contract year and will likely get a raise to somewhere in the $4 million range next season, which will severely cripple the Rangers’ abilities to go out and acquire some secondary scoring in the offseason.

However, the Rangers have a plethora of talented (and more importantly, cheap) young prospects in Evgeny Grachev, Derek Stepan and Bobby Sanguinetti, so the Rangers may rely on their youth.


3. Montreal Canadiens

When the who’s-the-most-overpaid-player discussion comes up regarding the NHL, Scott Gomez often find himself at the top of the list. He’s a great second line center at best, yet he’s being paid like a franchise superstar. The $7.4 million he’ll get next year is a cap killer, and the $5.5 million that defenseman Roman Hamrlik will get does not lighten the burden any.

Now add that the Habs’ best player this season, Tomas Plekanec, is leaving to free agency and that goaltenders’ Jaroslav Halak and Carey Price are each restricted free agents looking for a pay increase and you begin to understand why Bob Gainey relinquished his managing duties.


2. Boston Bruins

The Bruins cap troubles stem from the six forwards who are earning $3.5 million or more next season. While Marc Savard and David Krejci are worth their moderately hefty salaries, Patrice Bergeron, Michael Ryder, Marco Sturm and Milan Lucic have not played consistently well enough to warrant their current price tags. With Phil Kessel’s departure, they also lack a pure sniper.

Another problem area is between the pipes. With the emergence of Tuuka Rask as a prominent NHL goaltender, the Bruins have to pay last year’s Vezina Trophy winner Tim Thomas $5 million per year for the next three seasons, unless they can find a trading partner for Thomas’ services.

GM Peter Chiarelli will be busy this offseason trying to re-sign restricted free agents Blake Wheeler and Daniel Paille, among others. He’ll also need to find suitable replacements for veterans Mark Recchi, Miroslav Satan and Dennis Seidenberg—all this with just over $9 million in cap space.


1. Calgary Flames

GM Darryl Sutter has set the Flames up for a world of hurt next season. With approximately $53.4 million already tied up for 2010-11, Sutter will have very little operating room this offseason. With Vesa Toskala leaving through free agency this summer, Sutter will need to seek out a backup goaltender willing to play for the league minimum, while also finding several cheap forward options to replace unrestricted free agents Chris Higgins and Craig Conroy.

Ian White, arguably the most valuable player the Flames acquired in the “Dion Phaneuf trade” is a restricted free agent, but will command a pay raise from the $850,000 he made this year. Aside from Mikael Backlund, the Flames don’t have any top tier young talent that figure to make an impact at the NHL level next season, so Sutter may end up having to deal team captain and fan favorite, Jarome Iginla, just to make ends meet.

Stock Watch—Twin Tylers Bozak And Myers Tearing It Up

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Still fighting to the finish in your fantasy hockey league? Or maybe you are looking for some keeper prospects for next year. Here is the weekly buy and sell recommendations with a bit of help on both fronts.


Buy

Tyler Bozak, C, Toronto Maple Leafs—There is no denying the chemistry developing between Phil Kessel, Nikolai Kulemin and Bozak. While producing offensively, Bozak is also dominating in the faceoff circle (56.2 percent) and is showing he could be the long-term solution for the Leafs as their first-line center. The Leafs have a moderately favorable schedule the rest of the way so Bozak should be good for another 10 or so points.

Tyler Myers, D, Buffalo Sabres—Myers made a name for himself early this season as the towering 19 year old Calder Trophy favorite on the Sabres’ blueline, but his production hit the ever-popular rookie wall on February 1st – his 20th birthday. From February 1st through March 7th Myers had just one goal, no assists and was -5 through 11 games. Since then, he has reverted to his impressive ways, posting two goals, seven assists and a +10 rating. Scan your waiver wire—Myers is owned in just 55 percent of pools.

Alex Steen, C, St. Louis Blues—Steen ranks fifth in the NHL in points over the last month with 14, putting him ahead of superstars like Alexander Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby. Normally, I would be skeptical to see a player of Steen’s caliber producing at such a pace, but his added incentive to contribute likely has something to do with his expiring contract. While we might see Steen return back to his old, less-fantasy relevant style of play next season, he is definitely worthy of a pickup down the final stretch this year.

Jamie McBain, D, Carolina Hurricanes—Keeper alert! McBain, 22, appears to be the Hurricanes’ powerplay quarterback of the future. After three years of offensive success with the NCAA’s Wisconsin Badgers, he accumulated 40 points in 68 games with the ‘Canes’ AHL affiliate the Albany River Rats this season. He has points in each of his first four games as an NHLer, with a goal and four assists.


Sell

Niklas Backstrom, G, Minnesota Wild—Backstrom, Minnesota’s franchise player, has been struggling with a groin injury, and with the Wild soon to be out of playoff contention, look for the starting reigns to be handed to Josh Harding, so as not to risk further injury to Backstrom. Cam Ward is in a similar situation in Carolina with an ailing lower back problem. While goaltenders like the Philadelphia Flyers’ Brian Boucher and the Edmonton Oilers’ Devan Dubnyk might be more suited for the AHL, they are starting games and are more valuable at this point of the season than typical studs like Backstrom and Ward.

Marc Savard, C, Boston Bruins—Injured players like Savard, Mikael Samuelsson, and Jeff Carter are still owned in over 60 percent of leagues. Unless you’re in a keeper pool it’s time to drop players who will be out for the remainder of the season.

Alex Kovalev, RW, Ottawa Senators—Surprise, surprise—the notoriously streaky Kovalev has disappeared now that the Senators need him most. In the month of March, he has zero points and a -11 rating through 10 games, while teammates Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson have picked up their respective games. Exchange him for Bozak or Steen, or Nikolai Kulemin if you’re in need of a winger.

Jay Bouwmeester, D, Calgary Flames—Though we expected Dion Phaneuf’s departure to open up offensive opportunities along the Flames’ blueline, Bouwmeester has no goals and four assists in 17 games since the trade. Instead, Calgary’s turned to Mark Giordano and Ian White to provide offense from the back-end.

Beyond Ovechkin—Stockpiling Capitals A Fantasy Bonanza

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Consider the Vancouver Canucks, San Jose Sharks and Chicago Blackhawks rank second, third, and fourth respectively among NHL teams with 225, 218, and 217 goals scored this season. Each of these teams have several offensive fantasy studs—Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley, Patrick Marleau and Dan Boyle in San Jose, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa and Duncan Keith in Chicago, and Daniel and Henrik Sedin in Vancouver.

The Washington Capitals rank first in the NHL with 266 goals scored, 41 more than the Canucks, and 108 more than the 30th ranked Boston Bruins!

Generally speaking, you can’t go wrong picking any player from a scoring line on the Washington Capitals, because they are bound to contribute offensively.

While points are the obvious indicator of a fantasy stud, plus-minus can be a more subtle teller of where the value lies. Let’s take a look at the points and plus-minus totals of the Capitals’ top 10 fantasy-relevant skaters, all of whom should be considered on draft day next season.

1. Alexander Ovechkin, LW—96 Pts, +41

Step aside Sid and Geno—Ovie is the consensus number one in fantasy from here on out. He ranks second in the NHL in goals (44), sixth in assists (52), first in points (96), first in plus-minus (+41), first in power play points (33), and fourteenth in game winning goals (5). He also has a robust 81 minutes in penalties, and he’s accomplished all this despite missing eight games due to injury and suspension. Yup, Ovechkin’s in a class of his own.

2. Mike Green, D—69 Pts, +31

The Canadian Olympic snubbing hasn’t even remotely fazed Green. He’s accumulated nine points in seven games since the break, and is just five points away from breaking his single-season record (73) set last year. Green’s 142 points in the last two seasons alone put him miles ahead of the next three offensive defensemen, Duncan Keith (105), Dan Boyle (104) and Nicklas Lidstrom (102). You could make a legitimate case for Green being the number two fantasy pick next year after Ovechkin. In fantasy hockey, no one consistently dominates their positions like Ovechkin and Green.

3. Nicklas Backstrom, C—83 Pts, +31

Now that he’s shooting more, Backstrom’s a true fantasy stud, and the chemistry he’s formed with Ovechkin is downright scary. If you’ve seen a Capitals power play you’ve undoubtedly witnessed the duo toying with opposing penalty kill units. It’s just simply not fair. He’s a restricted free agent this summer, so expect the Caps to give him a hefty pay increase from his entry level deal, and likely something long-term. Backstrom will probably go late first or early second round in most drafts next year. Imagine snagging the first overall pick to get Ovechkin and then grabbing Backstrom with your second round pick? Win-win.

4. Alexander Semin, RW—68 Pts, +26

Frustratingly inconsistent at times (three points in his last seven games after posting seven points in his previous three contests), there’s no denying Semin’s tremendous skill. The Russian sniper has slick hands and a unique ability to bulge the twine. Semin could go anywhere from the first to third round in fantasy pools next year, depending on whether your pool is broken down into all three forward positions (left wing, center and right wing), or just simply “forwards”. Wingers are harder to come by than centers, so draft accordingly.

5. Brooks Laich—51 Pts, +11

Laich’s not as flashy as the previous four, but he has an admirable work ethic and benefits from receiving occasional ice-time with some of the NHL’s best players. He might not be as skilled as a Rick Nash or an Eric Staal, but his current numbers are comparable to theirs. In fantasy, it doesn’t matter how you get points. Laich is deserving of a mid-round pick in drafts next season.

6. Tomas Fleischmann—47 Pts, +6

Like Backstrom, Fleischmann’s a RFA this summer but there have been no reports that the Caps intend to let him go. While his plus-minus isn’t as spectacular as some of his teammates, he’s been a top-tier secondary scoring option for the offensive-juggernaut Capitals. If he stays healthy next season, he could make a run at 70 points. He’s another mid-rounder.

7. Mike Knuble—45 Pts, +21

At 37, age is becoming a factor, but playing in Washington, Knuble has at least one more year of fantasy-relevance. He contributes in all categories, and is incredibly consistent. This is his seventh straight year posting at least 20 goals and 45 points. Depending on the format of your pool (positions and statistic categories), Knuble’s worthy of a pick somewhere between rounds eight and 12.

8. Eric Fehr—33 Pts, +18

Fehr, 24, is another RFA who’ll be looking for a pay increase but it’s well deserved. He’s on pace to set career highs in nearly every stat category this season, and has performed admirably even though bouncing between the second and third lines for much of the season. He’s worth a late pick, especially if the Capitals are unable to resign Fleischmann.

9. Tom Poti, D—22 Pts, +19

The Capitals only have one true offensive defenseman, but Poti has the luck of being the next closest player to fit that description. Unfortunately for Poti, prospect John Carlson is fast approaching consistent NHL duty. If your pool values plus-minus, Poti’s worth a mid-round pick. Otherwise steal him late.

10. Brendan Morrison, C—36 Pts, +18

Morrison’s an unrestricted free agent this summer, and he may have earned some market value with strong play this year so he might not be donning Capital red next season. He’d be better off playing in Washington though, where he’s been an ideal fit as their second line pivot. If he returns to Washington, he’s worth a late-round pick. Otherwise steer clear.