Quarterbacks to Target and Avoid, Projection Pal Files Available

Russell Wilson

I’m not saying make a habit of drafting a quarterback early, but if you are going to take the plunge, Russell Wilson offers the best potential ROI of the top passers.

In case you missed it … What? You haven’t liked our Facebook page or don’t follow us on Twitter yet?… here is a bit of an update on what I’ve kept myself busy doing the last week.

Mostly, answering emails from Draft Buddy customers. It is mid-August and we are in the thick of drafting season. NFL regular season will be here before we know it. If you haven’t re-upped Draft Buddy yet then please get on it. Don’t wait until the last minute in case you do need some help getting ready for your draft.

I also updated my own rankings here on the website. The last update included some icons to show players to target and avoid. I will add a few sentences below explaining why I picked some of the quarterbacks who received the target or the avoid tags.

Today I added three Projection Pal files to the Draft Buddy download page, which include projections from each of CBS, ESPN and FantasyPros you can import into Buddy. These projections are as of yesterday, as it took a little while to put these together.

Quarterbacks to Target

Russell Wilson, SEA
I have him ranked 4th at QB. He usually goes QB4. The point here is, if you are going to take one of these top quarterbacks, grab the guy near the end of that tier and only IF he is at a value. In some drafts, Wilson is falling far enough he is worth it over stockpiling more middling RB and WR. Would it surprise me if Wilson ends the season as the number one QB? Not at all.

Kirk Cousins, WAS
Fantasy players don’t believe in Cousins’ talent. Fair enough. Under pressure, a do-or-die playoff game, I probably don’t have Cousins high on my list either. However I do believe in the offense run by coach Jay Gruden and Cousins has excellent receiving talent around him. Running game could look better. Cousins finished QB9 last season and is usually getting drafted outside the top twelve. When I wait at QB, which is most of the time, I’ve ended up taking Cousins a fair bit.

Quarterbacks to Avoid

Andy Dalton, CIN
A.J. Green is great but Tyler Eifert is banged up and I am not confident he is going to start the season. While I’m getting slightly intrigued by rookie Tyler Boyd because of the opportunity in front of him, Brandon LaFell is LaForgettable. Short of Giovani Bernard catching 100 passes there isn’t enough receiving talent here to propel Dalton to be any more reliable than Alex Smith, and everyone is already avoiding him, right?

Marcus Mariota, TEN
Admittedly my avoid picks at quarterback are, on average, not usually ranked or drafted very high, but I’ve seen a reach or three for Mariota in the last month. I think it is his youth, draft pedigree and good old fashioned optimism getting some fantasy players ahead of themselves on Mariota. Maybe he will be the next breakout Blake Bortles, but not this year. The receivers aren’t good enough and head coach Mike Mularkey has a spotty offensive record even though that is supposed to be his forte.

Baseball Projections and Rankings Update, Member Q&A


Hey, didn’t we already update the fantasy baseball projections in Draft Buddy earlier this week? We did, but that was mostly because I was traveling and unable to update towards the end of last week.

Today everything got updated again – projections from all three sources, Steamer-Fangraphs, Zeile from FantasyPros and ZiPS, ADP from NFBC and FantasyPros, and our depth charts (thanks for members Kevin and Mark for doing the heavy lifting on that front).

Please support the sites contributing to Draft Buddy. I wanted to update in time for the upcoming Easter weekend. Some of you guys are forgoing the family commitments for your fantasy baseball draft, am I right?

With the new projections, our online fantasy baseball rankings and Last Player Picked are also updated, for those looking for a quicker print-and-go cheatsheet for their draft.

Not much else to report in terms of site or feature updates. I’ve received some great feedback (thanks!) and good suggestions for Draft Buddy which I appreciate, but won’t be able to implement for this season. Lets close with some questions and answers from my emails with Draft Buddy members this week which may be useful to many of you.

Q: Can you update the stats in Draft Buddy after your draft, just to check new projected standings with the recent stat updates?

A: You can update. It will update the cheatsheets since they are driven off the projections, but then everything will be updated including projected standings. Hopefully not too much change! The only thing you need to be aware of is to change the two reset options on the action tab to “no” before you update. Otherwise you will lose the keepers and draft results.

kris_bryantQ: I noticed Kris Bryant is listed correctly with a position of 3B in the hitters tab but on the main draft tab shows OF. Why the position change? Would this throw off the projections at all?

A: After reviewing your Draft Buddy file, I see your league has a 10 game position eligibility. Default is 20. Bryant actually qualifies as an OF since he played 19 games at OF last season. So in yours he is listed as both OF and 3B… you can see this on the hitters tab. In terms of popping up as OF on the overall rankings (and this flowing through to the summary tab) it is probably just due to sorting. I’m not sure if maybe he had slightly more value at OF so Draft Buddy put the OF position higher on the list, or simply OF moved higher than his 3B record. You should be able to draft him and then switch him to 3B on the draft report tab to carry him through the rosters tab at 3B. Or, even just switch his position on the overall rankings from OF to 3B.

Q: On version 3.0 after I entered my keepers, on the Action tab I changed the Reset Keepers to “no”. The issue is that when I Compile Cheatsheets, all of those keepers stay on the Keepers tab, but all players are removed from the Draft Report tab. Usually changing that setting to “no” keeps the keepers on the Draft Report tab, but for the latest version they are not. The only way I can Compile Cheatsheets but have my keepers stay on the Draft Report tab is to also update Reset draft order to picks to “no”.

Is this how it is supposed to work? I’m afraid that if I get to my draft and something changes, all of my keepers will be removed from the Draft Report.

A: You should be fine by changing them both to no. I know it is a bit confusing but depending on the keeper type you dont want to reset the draft report tab either and that must be the case for your league. Sorry about the confusion.

Q: I have recently come across Draft Buddy, I think it is amazing. However, as you can guess as a Mac user, my system is giving me some hangups. I am running Excel 2008 for Mac. Is it pointless to try and get it to work with macros? Or is there a way to make it happen?

Also, I did jump over on a friends PC (Excel 2011 or greater) and did get things to work smoothly. The only snag I hit there was inputting Keepers. It would not populate a list when I tried to do the pull down bar. Is there an error there? Or is it once again, a software issue?

A: Unfortunately, you really need the macros to work to get Draft Buddy to do what it is supposed to do. Creating the cheatsheets, updating projections and even something as simple as drafting a player all use macros to function properly. And, there is no way to get the macros to work on Mac Office 2008. Believe me I’ve tried! That is the only version with an issue, because Microsoft took Visual Basic out of that version.

You could probably install a trial version of the newest Office for Mac. I personally don’t like the newest version – I find it exceptionally slow (perhaps because my Mac is a bit dated) – but Draft Buddy should work in it. Install the trial for a month and cancel it, would at least get you through this season.

It will work on all versions of Excel for Windows. I don’t believe the keeper thing you are experiencing is due to an Excel issue. Did you select the position first on the keepers tab? Try that, it is the first, smaller yellow highlighted box under the team name on the keepers tab. Then the player drop-down should work after that.

Initial 2015 Fantasy Football Projections Commentary, AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was better than you probably thought two seasons ago, and last year way better than you probably thought. He finished 5th in fantasy scoring.

Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was better than you probably thought two seasons ago, and last year way better than you probably thought. He finished 5th in fantasy scoring.

Our initial 2015 fantasy football projections were released June 1. Even better, Draft Buddy is now available!

To accompany the initial projections, as we continue to review, research, analyze the projections, and create cheatsheet rankings, we provide the following commentary by division to give some insight into why we have players projected the way we do at this time.

Baltimore Ravens

  • “Quarterback Whisperer” Marc Trestman is the Ravens new OC, which one would assume means an uptick for QB Joe Flacco and RB Justin Forsett in the passing game. The problem with boosting Flacco is he’s already thrown pass attempts in excess of former Trestman protégé Jay Cutler in recent years, and his supporting cast consists of two rookies and a very late bloomer or journeyman RB amongst his top four pass catchers. You can be bullish about Flacco, but he’s still considered just a fringe starter or reliable backup.
  • We’ve currently got Forsett in line with his catches last season, which should arguably go up. Matt Forte caught 74 and 102 receptions in his two seasons under Trestman. However, Forsett is not Forte. Forsett bounced around playing for four different teams through six seasons before finally breaking out last year. That’s a red flag, or at least a caution. Lorenzo Taliaferro wasn’t particularly impressive as a rookie, so the team added Javorius Allen via the NFL Draft. How effective these guys are is the main threat to Forsett’s workload.
  • Steve Smith started off hot last season with four touchdowns, four 100-yard games in the first six weeks. Then there was a noticeable fade. Does he have another 1,000-yard season in him? Possible given the opportunity, but not great odds.
  • The Ravens need at least one of rookies Breshad Perriman and Maxx Williams (preferably both) to make an immediate impact. The team is optimistic Dennis Pitta will play this season but it looks 50-50 at best right now.

Cincinnati Bengals

  • Fantasy players don’t like Andy Dalton. He failed to crack 3,400 yards or 20 TD passing last season, but I still had to double check why (at the time) his 12-team ADP was n/a on our initial online cheatsheets. It’s a running team. The Bengals would be quite content to keep him under 500 pass attempts.
  • Giovani Bernard looked like he might be the next Jamaal Charles-esque all-purpose back after his rookie season in 2013. Then Jeremy Hill came to town and all bets are off. Hill overtook Bernard producing over 1,300 yards on 222 carries and 27 receptions. Bernard missed a few games, still chipped in over 1,000 yards on over 200 touches, but the coaching staff showed a lot more confidence in Hill. Hills’ yards-per-carry is half a yard better. He’s the guy to own. Bernard only if he drops too far to present good value.
  • One of the best receivers in the game is A.J. Green, but the run heavy philosophy begets a slight downgrade from Green’s 3-year weighted average. Mohamed Sanu filled in pretty well when Green was out and Marvin Jones was lost for the season. Now Sanu and Jones will challenge each other for snaps. Jones wins, if healthy.
  • Veteran Jermaine Gresham is a free agent still on the market, leaving Tyler Eifert who has done little in his NFL career, and rookie Tyler Kroft. Eifert is an end-game flier if you need a second TE, but more than likely this position on the Bengals is a fantasy wasteland. Surprising, since the knock on Dalton is his deep ball.

Cleveland Browns

  • Our projections need some adjustment here. Since initially prepping these, media reports Josh McCown is the clear cut starter and Johnny Manziel is not really in the discussion. Makes sense. Neither are worth drafting.
  • The running back position was tough to figure out last season. It isn’t any clearer this season, and potentially worse, since last year we could write-off Ben Tate pretty early on. This year, Terrance West, Isaiah Crowell and rookie Duke Johnson are all in the picture for carries. We’ve got it Crow-West-Johnson, but none with enough carries to get to 1,000 yards. Losing OC Kyle Shanahan does not help matters.
  • Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline arrive to take over the top two receiver spots. Bowe’s 1,000 yard seasons are a distant memory. Can you believe he caught 15 TD in 2010? This is a dismal depth chart. Robert Housler is interesting to the extent if he does perform for fantasy, we get to see how many pundits put their hand up and say, “see, called it” [three years ago].

Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Ben Roethlisberger was better than you probably thought two seasons ago, and last year way better than you probably thought. He finished 5th in scoring, within 10 points of 3rd. No significant losses and his receivers are more than likely better. Note he’s getting drafted 8th to 9th QB off the board.
  • Le’Veon Bell is currently suspended the first three games of the season, and that is a bummer. He blew past 350 touches last season. The forced time off scales him back to around 300. Discount accordingly but not too much because it is his points-per-game that matter. Hopefully rust is short lived once he’s back in late September. DeAngelo Williams backs up Bell and has some value knowing he will start three games.
  • Big Ben and Antonio Brown are in a zone. I’ve seen Brown go first WR off the board in some early drafts, and I can’t knock it. Best bet to top 100 receptions this season. Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton are a young, exciting pair, particularly Bryant, but not ready to cut into Brown’s production. Bryant might be a tough decision to start each week on your fantasy team, but he didn’t play the first six weeks last season and then proceeded to score in 7 of 11 games played. Impressive.
  • Some pegged the Steelers to draft a TE replacement for Heath Miller. Not yet. A blah pick but provides an acceptable return if you are last to draft the position.

Initial 2015 Projections Release and Commentary Series

Projections | AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West