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Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch – Pena, Wigginton, Peralta, Beachy

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Stock Up

Carlos Pena, 1B, CHC – Pena is the kind of player that will give you your money’s worth every time he swings. Unfortunately, he misses a lot more than most other players and his career .240 batting average is the kind of thing that scares a lot of fantasy owners away, despite the huge power. Right now is the time to add the big fella, as he has hit .265 with eight home runs and 14 RBI over the last two weeks. That kind of average is very palatable when you are considering the power surge. Ride his hot streak but be ready to cut bait as the big numbers tail off.

Ty Wigginton, 1B/2B/3B/OF, COL – Wigginton is eligible all over the diamond and has a nice power stroke. Over the last two weeks, he’s posted .298/7/12 with 10 runs scored. As long as the Rockies are giving him regular at-bats, he’ll be an asset to your team, but you definitely want to get in on this current run.

Jhonny Peralta, 3B/SS, DET – Peralta continues his unlikely hot hitting. Over the fortnight, he is mashing to a .396/4/13/8 tune. Few shortstops are performing at a very high level, so Peralta might be more than a short-term hot streak, he might just be your rest of the season solution. Grab him if he is sitting on your waiver wire.

J.J. Hardy, SS, BAL – Hardy has found his swing again and is rewarding his owners. He is hitting .340/5/10/10 over the last two weeks so enjoy the ride, just don’t expect it to last for a long time. Be ready to find a replacement when he falls back down to Earth.

Danny Espinosa, 2B, WAS – Espinosa is another middle infielder who is on a hot streak. Right now, he is in the middle of a .294/4/11/7 run with three steals to boot. He’s a solid play if you are desperate.

Chris Getz, 2B, CWS – Yet another middle infielder who is exceeding expectations, Getz is doing most of his damage with his legs. Over the last two weeks, he has posted a .388/0/2/7/6 line and provides a lot of help in the steals category for those needing a few more. The average is also surging right now, just don’t expect any power.

Jemile Weeks, 2B, OAK – While we are on the run of middle infielders, let’s stop and visit Rickie Weeks’ little brother. Jemile is a good average/speed guy, but will offer much less power than his big brother Rickie. Over the last two weeks, Jemile has posted a .292/0/4/7/5 line and will pile up the steals as long as Oakland keeps rolling him out at 2B each night. The A’s traded Mark Ellis to the Colorado Rockies, so it seems like their plan is to stick with Weeks.

Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL – Freeman has found his groove recently and his numbers are showing it. He posted .292/3/9/6 over the last two weeks and has even been moved to the heart of the Atlanta batting order. He’s a great long-term keeper, but grab him for his power surge right now.

Brandon Beachy, SP, ATL – Beachy is back from the injury that cost him six weeks of playing time. He’s back with a flourish, striking out 20 in the two appearances since his return while allowing only two runs over those 12 innings pitched. If he’s available, pick him up more for his ratios than for the strikeouts, which aren’t likely to continue at that rate.

 
Stock Down

Adam Dunn, 1B, CWS – Dunn is suffering his worst MLB season for no obvious reason. Over the last two weeks, he has managed two singles, a double, 16 strikeouts, and no other stats of use to your fantasy team. Is the change of leagues hurting his performance or maybe the designated hitter role? Whatever has turned him from a consistent slugger to someone playing himself out of the league, it is time to find another alternative. Dunn looks done.

Hunter Pence, OF, HOU – After Pence went on a 23 game hitting streak, the back problems flared up and have rendered him helpless. Since the hitting streak, Pence has gone 9-for-38 with only 3 RBI and 2 runs scored in nine games played. Sit him on your bench until he gets past this injury.

Joe Mauer, C, MIN – Mauer has been battling injuries all season and it looks like he will be hitting from the 1B and DH slots from here on out. Mauer is the best hitting catcher in baseball when healthy, but he isn’t that right now. If someone in your league is willing to pay close to full value on him, pull the trigger.

Jay Bruce, OF, CIN – Bruce is struggling in June after picking up NL Player of the Month honors in May. He’s scuffling right now, so sit him until he finds his form again.

Zack Greinke, SP, KC – Greinke was zooming along at 6-0 in his first seven starts since starting the season with a cracked rib injury. Then the last two weeks saw some awful numbers pop up to the tune of 1-2 with an 8.79 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. Since his strikeouts are still there, don’t worry. In fact, this might be a good time to buy low.

Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch – Peralta, Cabrera, Hinske, Davis

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Jhonny Peralta, 3B/SS, DET – Peralta has filled the shortstop slot in Detroit with a .476BA/3HR/8RBI/5R line in the last week. That’s good stuff from a guy who was shuffled out of Cleveland last season because he wasn’t performing as well as he did earlier in his career. Peralta is still relatively young (age 28 season), so he’s also a decent keeper in very deep leagues.

Erick Aybar, SS, LAA – Aybar is a repeat performer on our list again this week. He’s put up a .362/0/8/7 with seven stolen bases in the last two weeks. It looks like he’s trying to make up for all the lost time that he spent on the disabled list in April.

Melky Cabrera, OF, KC – Cabrera is another repeat performer on our list, going .244/2/8/9/2 during the fortnight. Cabrera is not likely to be a regular for the rest of the season, but he’s a great guy to ride while he’s hot.

Eric Hinske, 1B/OF, ATL – Atlanta’s pinch hitter is on a tear, despite only 10 at-bats over the last week. In those 10 at-bats, Hinske has six hits, three of which are homers, five ribbies, and four runs scored. He’s not going to get regular at-bats unless there is a rash of injuries, but he gives you quality out of his few opportunities.

Austin Jackson, OF, DET – Jackson seems to be a very streaky player. The key here is to know when to hold them and when to fold them. Over the last week he’s compiled a .379/1/7/4/1line, so enjoy is while it lasts.

Rajai Davis, OF, TOR – The Blue Jays outfield is hitting well right now and Davis seems to be out in front. He posted a .333/0/2/5/4 line last week and doesn’t seem to be slowing down. Davis is a great option for steals if you need them.

Hanley Ramirez, SS, FLA – Ramirez was a regular on the Stock Down list in April, but seems to be fixing things. We all knew it was going to happen, and hopefully you were able to pry him away from his owner before the ship was righted. The last week saw him post .286/1/2/4/3 and you know there are only better things to come for the rest of the year.

Homer Bailey, SP, CIN – Bailey has been a highly touted prospect for a number of years and it was looking like he would never achieve that lofty status. He has certainly not disappointed in the last week as he is 2-0 with12 strikeouts, a 0.69 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP.

Drew Storen, RP, WAS – Storen is trying to lock down the closer role in Washington and last week sure helped, going 2-0 with two saves, three strikeouts, a 0.00 ERA and a 0.43 WHIP. This guy has serious stuff and the only way he’s not a long term elite closer is if he is moved into the rotation.

 
Stock Down

Miguel Cabrera, 1B, DET – Cabrera always seems to find offseason problems, but he is most comfortable on a baseball field doing what he does best: hitting. He tore the cover off the ball in April, but has been slumping over the last week with a measly .125/0/3/5 line. This guy is an elite player, so have faith that he will turn it around any day.

Carlos Gonzalez, OF, COL – Gonzalez is not a one year wonder, he’s the real deal. Despite the .130/1/2/2/0 line over the last week, he’ll give you your money’s worth. Stick with his and he will reward your patience.

Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY – Though a bad last week in the power and speed categories, his batting average is holding at .273. He just needed a plunk in the head Wednesday night to wake him up. Look for the power and speed to return very soon.

David Wright, 3B, NYM – Wright has been unusually streaky this season. He either tears it up or falls apart and right now he is in free fall mode posting .150/0/0/1/1 over the last seven days. This is just another case of an elite player that is going to fix things soon and you are better off keeping him in your lineup unless you have an excellent backup in the meantime.

Mat Latos, SP, SD – Latos has been quite an enigma. He had a super 2010 season and seems to be suffering from a bit of the old sophomore slump as he is 0-5 with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.35WHIP and a 34/14 strikeout to walk ratio. Latos has a ton of potential and might take a bit longer to return to the form that caused many see him as a future superstar. Don’t give up on him in keeper leagues as he is the real deal.

Francisco Liriano, SP, MIN – This is what we have come to expect from Liriano: a bad game following a good one. He pitched a no hitter (while giving up six walks) last week in a start that might have been his last if it weren’t for the heroics. Then he came out and pitched a real stinker with 3 IP, 4ER, 3BB, and 1K in a losing effort. Liriano is a ticking time bomb and you should run away as fast as you can. He will have moments of brilliance, but he will also have many more that are awful.

Fantasy Baseball Players of Interest: Overvalued and Undervalued Hitters

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Pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training this week, we are rolling for fantasy baseball season with our player projections and the Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy for 2011, loaded with those projections. It is an exciting time as we approach the dawn of another season.

As with any set of projections, there are going to be players projected somewhat higher or lower than what the majority of fantasy baseball players think. We can identify these players through a comparison of the player’s ranking versus their Average Draft Position (ADP). These players who are outside the norm can be considered sleepers or busts, or overvalued or undervalued for fantasy baseball.

The important thing to note isn’t that these players are projected “wrong”, but rather, does the projector with his contrarian thinking have valid reasons for projecting these players higher or lower than consensus? We certainly believe the reasons are valid, or we wouldn’t project the players that way.

So who are these players? Let’s take a look at some hitters who aren’t being taken seriously enough and those who are overvalued around Major League Baseball, and more importantly, fantasy baseball.

 
Catchers

Russell Martin has received no love since his breakout season of 2007. Since his game has slumped at the plate in the last few years, he has earned what he has received, but look for a revival in the Bronx. Hitting in the New York Yankees order can do wonders for anyone’s game and Martin should be rejuvenated with 2007-esque numbers. The steals might not break 20 like his big season, but look for the average and power to return. He’s being drafted as the 243rd player overall (18th round in a 14-team league) over at Mock Draft Central (MDC), so a mid-teen draft pick should net you a very solid catcher.

Kurt Suzuki always produces when healthy. Unfortunately, he missed almost a month of 2010 and didn’t get 500 at bats for the first time since his rookie season. Suzuki doesn’t put up huge numbers, but because he normally gets a lot of at bats, the stats pile up for him more than most catchers. He’s going in the 12th round at MDC, but should be going earlier than that. Assuming he can stay healthy, he will reward you.

There are four elite catchers in fantasy baseball: Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, Brian McCann and Buster Posey, with Posey joining the group in 2011. Carlos Santana will likely join the group next season, but is probably a cut below for right now.

If you can’t get one of the big four, there are nearly a dozen who can be lumped together with similar expectations. That group includes Martin, Suzuki and Santana. Unless you’ve really fallen in love with one of these guys, don’t jump the gun and draft one too soon, after the big four are drafted. Play the waiting game and get one for value once two-thirds to three-quarters of projected starting catchers are off the board.

 
First Base

Derrek Lee has fallen out of favor with fantasy players. His stats are sliding a bit from his glory days in Chicago, but if you can snag Lee a round or two before his 16th round ADP, you will love the results. Lee is healthy again and is determined to prove that he hasn’t lost it. The Orioles have constructed a nice batting order around Lee with Vladimir Guerrero and Mark Reynolds, which will help the cause. If you have the faith in Lee, he will pay off handsomely.

Aubrey Huff had a very nice 2010, but that wasn’t who Aubrey Huff is. Huff is more like a .270/20/80 guy, but he’s flying off the board at MDC in the eighth round as if he were going to produce .290/26/86 again. Don’t fall for the hype.

 
Second Base

Brian Roberts is a guy whose reputation will carry him for the next few years, even as his production declines. He’s still a good fantasy performer, but he now falls into a very large group of players who will give you similar numbers at a cheaper price, and likely less injury risk. Unless he falls in your draft, don’t spend a lot on him.

There are a number of players who will qualify at 2B this season but will play elsewhere. Most of them are good players to have on your team because they will qualify at multiple positions, including a hard to cover middle infield slot. Martin Prado is the best of the bunch and Ben Zobrist will help your team in a lot of areas. Chone Figgins is a notoriously slow starter, but is worth 30-40 steals by the end of the season.

 
Third Base

Chase Headley is ready to step up for the Padres. He has reached that magical age of 27 and will progress towards being a better all-around ball player. He’s not about to push David Wright off the All-Star team, but he will likely better all of his 2010 numbers. He’s going in the 21st round over at MDC, which is about ten rounds too late for his production. He’ll contribute nicely in all categories, including almost 20 steals. Grab him and enjoy the ride.

If there is one player that you should stay away from, it’s Adrian Beltre. He has shown us a pattern of playing hard only when his next contract is on the line. In a contract season, he is a monster. He averaged .310/28/89 in his three contract seasons. Compare that to his non-contract season average of .264/18/67. Why the Texas Rangers would back up the armored car for this slacker, no one knows. Make sure you don’t do it, even in a hitter friendly ballpark, unless you want to be disappointed.

 
Short Stop

Troy Tulowitzki had a September like no other. In September of 2010, Tulo went .376/15/40 with 30 runs scored. Those stats help to inflate his 2010 overall stat line and covers up the goose eggs he took from mid-June through late July as he was on the disabled list. He spent an extended stay on the DL two of the last three years and there are serious concerns about his durability. When he plays, he’s the second best shortstop in fantasy baseball. But it’s hard to get stats for your squad when you’re not on the field. If you draft Tulo, make sure you have an adequate backup ready to slide into his place for a spell, and hopefully not a long spell.

There are about a half dozen guys who can give you stats similar to the ones Jhonny Peralta will put up in 2011. The difference is that he will be on the board for about 10 rounds longer then each of the other players. Grab him shortly before his 18th round ADP and you will be happy. The bonus is that he is also 3B eligible in most leagues for a little flexibility, although SS is a more shallow position.

 
Outfield

Two things you need to know about Carlos Beltran’s 2011 season is that he’s healthy and it’s a contract season. He’s not about to return to the glory days of 40-40, but he should end up with 25 homers and 25 steals with an average north of .275. Beltran is going in the late 17th round at MDC, which is a bargain for what you’ll get.

Nick Markakis is a very good hitting outfielder. He’s somewhere in between the outlier seasons of 2007 when he was great and 2010 when he was mediocre. Since his stats have been steadily decreasing every season since his big 2007 campaign, many have given up on him. If you are looking for guy who can hit .300 and drive in 100 runs, then Markakis is your man. He might only hit 15 or so homers, but the overall value is much better than the eighth round ADP he is getting over at MDC.

Josh Hamilton, when healthy, is one of the most feared hitters in the game. But this is a guy who has a great amount of trouble staying healthy. He’s averaged 427 at bats each of the last two seasons and thinking he will see 600 AB is asking too much from a guy who throws his body around in centerfield. Expect him to excel when playing, but temper your expectations to around 500 AB.

Ichiro Suzuki is a great story of a guy who came over from Japan and excelled as an everyday player. He was the first Japanese player to do this and he has been awesome to watch for the last decade. Unfortunately, the man who relies on speed to change the game is slowing down as he ages. The steals are down around 30 and the batting average is getting dangerously close to .300. This isn’t a player to avoid, but Ichiro hits for no power and contributes very little other than his speed. He certainly isn’t a player to select in the early third round, as he is being drafted over at MDC.