Tag Archives: baseball projections

Projections, ADP and Depth Charts Update

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The Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy update is now available! That was quite a chore, starting yesterday and finally finishing today, but we have updated projections from each of FantasyPros and Steamer-Razzball, Average Draft Position (ADP) data from each of Pros, Mock Draft Central and NFBC, plus updated depth charts. These updates also helped create updated fantasy baseball cheatsheets, for those who want to quickly print and run to their draft instead of downloading and setting up the CC/DB.

If I could mention the depth charts (and accompanying rosters) for a moment, I’m still not entirely happy with how they are presented on the website. The 25-man rosters are in good shape, as that is what I’m concentrating on mostly because those are most relevant for fantasy purposes, and they feed into the Cheatsheet Compiler (well, it all does). It is the remaining 40-man roster players and non-roster players that are tougher to keep straight.

As time allows, I can see I’m still going to continue to fuss around with the depth chart and roster pages to provide as much information, in a clean and organized format, as possible. What isn’t helping entirely is the roster data purchased from our stats provider. It gives me all the players, but in terms of identifying what roster a player is currently on, and whether he is injured or not, the data falls short in places.

Anyway, something for me to continue to work at and improve. If you are still drafting this week and Easter weekend leading to Opening Day, grab the update and good luck!

Another Update, Plus Baseball Player Rankings

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A new week and yet another update for the Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy. The Zeile Consensus Projections and ADP each received an update, which you can obtain by simply opening your copy of the Cheatsheet Compiler, going to the update tab, and hitting the Update Projections button, making sure you are asking for the Zeile (FantasyPros) projections from the available drop-down.

Don’t have the Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy yet? They are free, including updates from now to Opening Day. All you need to do is register a member account (or login with your old one and renew access) and go to the download page to get the CC/DB, fantasy baseball version for 2013. Testimonials and/or donations to help pay for our web hosting and time are appreciated.

The CC/DB is in Microsoft Excel, which is software that some of you maybe don’t have on your computer, or don’t use currently or very often, or don’t care to try. I’ve tried to make the Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy as user-friendly as possible, but it is within the confines of Excel which isn’t everyone’s idea of a good time. As a (former) accountant, it was a natural for me, but I understand some reluctance or even frustration using a Microsoft product.

Overall
Rank
Player
 Team 5X5 ADP
1
Ryan Braun, OF
 MIL $46 1.01
2
Miguel Cabrera, 3B
 DET $46 1.02
3
Mike Trout, OF
 LAA $44 1.03
4
Robinson Cano, 2B
 NYY $36 1.07
5
Matt Kemp, OF
 LAD $35 1.04
6
Albert Pujols, DH|1B
 LAA $35 1.06
7
Clayton Kershaw, SP
 LAD $33 2.02

To help bridge the gap by providing something beneficial to non-Excel users, I posted new player ranking pages on the website. Print and go, with the old pencil and paper draft method. Nothing wrong with that, and you are certain to not spill beer on your laptop at the draft. The rankings are based on standard 5X5 roto scoring with a typical $260 salary cap (i.e. same format as you see in outdated magazines on the racks at the book store), pulled from the Cheatsheet Compiler. There are overall rankings and rankings by position. I’ll update these each time we update the projections in the Compiler.

I hope you find that helpful. Feedback is welcome either here in the blog comments, or on Twitter or Facebook.

Projections and ADP Update Ready for the Cheatsheet Compiler

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I posted this morning on our Facebook page and Twitter account that I was going to work on updating the fantasy baseball projections, Average Draft Position (ADP) and depth charts today for the Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy. That took some time, but the update is ready!

Both sets of projections, the Zeile Consensus Projections from FantasyPros, and the Steamer-Razzball projections from Steamer Projections Blog, were updated. Plus, I updated ADP from each of Mock Draft Central, FantasyPros and National Fantasy Baseball Championship.

I ran out of time to do the depth charts, so if a few people could look through them and let me know if there are any glaring changes that should be made, I’d appreciate it.

As a result of this update, we now have much deeper Zeile projections. Previously, I grabbed the Excel export file from FantasyPros, but member mjfhokie noticed that didn’t include the complete Zeile projections. Now I’m pulling them direct from FantasyPros’ API, resulting in much deeper projections. Our Zeile import used to include projections for 245 hitters and 181 pitchers, but is now at 358 hitters and 249 pitchers. Good stuff!

Note since this is a projections update, you do not need to download the Cheatsheet Compiler again. You can get the new data using the built in features. To update both sets of projections, perform the following steps:

1. Open your copy of the Cheatsheet Compiler, go to the update tab, and use the drop-down to choose Steamer-Razzball projections. Click the Update Projections button. You should see an indication that Steamer projections now are in Site A.

2. After that runs through the update, go back to the update tab and click the Move to Site B button, which will do just what it sounds like. It moves the now updated Steamer projections from section A to B on each of the hitters and pitchers tabs.

3. Now change the drop-down from Steamer-Razzball to Zeile (FantasyPros). Click the Update Projections button again.

4. Your ADP is already updated from the above steps. If you want to switch to a different source for your ADP, go to the adp tab, change the drop-down, and click the Update ADP button.

One final note that I did make some very minor changes to the Compiler and Draft Buddy download files, even though I didn’t change the version number. In the Compiler, the Check for Update button didn’t work properly. I fixed that.

In Draft Buddy, I noticed a problem on my Mac that threw an error near the end of the Setup Draft Buddy process. This was a curious one that happened because while running one macro (Setup Draft Buddy), Buddy tried to run another macro (recalculate the by pos tab), but ended up getting bungled up because the first task didn’t think the second task finished fast enough. I never noticed this issue on my PC, only the Mac.

Like I said, these are very minor issues, but if you do notice them and want to download a fresh copy of the Compiler or Draft Buddy, then you can certainly do that.

Enjoy the update, and again, let me know if you notice any significant depth chart changes that should be made, particularly those impacting the starting lineup, rotation and closers as shown on our summary depth chart in the Compiler.

Fantasy Baseball Cheatsheet Compiler Release Update

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We’re getting really close to releasing the 2013 Cheatsheet Compiler for fantasy baseball. Perhaps not later today because I still need to update our depth charts and get confirmation we can use average draft position information from a couple sources, plus then clean and format that data. On the plus side, the Compiler will have the ability to import the Steamer-Razzball and Zeile Consensus projections, and perhaps more if others agree to let us use their projections. Thanks for your patience!

Steamer-Razzball and Zeile Consensus Baseball Player Projections

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I did say, “next stop, Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy” last week, but to get to that stop there are a few key steps we need to take along the way. Most importantly, we need some player projections to get into the Cheatsheet Compiler to generate our fantasy baseball cheatsheets.

Good buddy Rick Milleman isn’t doing the projections this year, so I reached out to a couple people to help us out and fortunately, and thankfully, they agreed to let us use their projections in the CC/DB. One you’ll recognize from a year ago and one perhaps not, although they do have a good track record.

The Zeile Consensus Projections are from FantasyPros, an average of player projections from a variety of fantasy baseball websites, and updated constantly from now through spring training and right up to Opening Day. FantasyPros let us use the Zeile projections last year, and I made them available for import into the Cheatsheet Compiler using Projection Pal. This year, we’ll see about a more direct import into the Compiler.

The Steamer-Razzball projections are a collaboration between the Steamer Projections Blog and top-notch fantasy baseball website, Razzball. Steamer is a system for generating baseball projections and they’ve coupled the projections with playing time estimates from Razzball. These will also be available for import into the Cheatsheet Compiler… somehow (I haven’t entirely figured it out yet).

Make sure to support these websites as thanks for providing their projections for us. Projection Pal allows for importing projections from other sources into the Compiler, but as anyone is aware who used Pal in the past, it can be a tad frustrating when player names don’t match up exactly with our database. Any possibility to skip that step and still get a solid set of projections is a welcome step into the right direction.

Formula Change Impacting Batting Average in the Cheatsheet Compiler

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While this issue has been gnawing at me for a little while now, it finally became crystal clear over the weekend what exactly was causing it, and how best to fix it. The issue: Batting Average (BA or AVG, as indicated in the Cheatsheet Compiler), is not being calculated properly on the hitters tab in the section “Compiler 2012 Projected Statistics”. Those are the projections, in the light blue section, that drive the cheatsheets.

To say the current formula for AVG is wrong is incorrect. It is dead accurate. What is really going on is Hits may or may not be correct, and if they are incorrect, then your AVG, on-base percentage (OBP), and related ratio projections are off.

In the default Cheatsheet Compiler download, Hits are correct. What happens however, is if and when you decide to import the Zeile Consensus Projections via Projection Pal, for example, then the Hits get wonky. When I originally put in the formula for Hits, I used Hits = Singles + Doubles + Triples + Home Runs. And why not? That is completely accurate, and we had projections or stats for all of those individual stat categories.

Import projections from somewhere else though, including Zeile, and you don’t have projections for Singles, Doubles and Triples. Only total Hits, and Home Runs. That means your Hits are off, in the light blue section (which is key), not the section where you imported the projections. You may not even notice this issue until you get to Draft Buddy and you start adding players and notice your team’s AVG or OBP is ridiculously low.

The issue originates in the Compiler, but since we have a Hits projection, we can fix this pretty easily and get everything back on track. Go to the hitters tab in the Compiler, cell V4. The formula is this:

=W4+X4+Y4+Z4

Change it to this:

=AX4*$AP4+BR4*$AQ4+CK4*$AR4+DD4*$AS4+DW4*$AT4+EO4*$AU4+FG4*$AV4

The easiest way to get this formula is by copying cell W4 (CTRL-C or command-C) and pasting it to V4 (CTRL-V or command-V).

Then copy cell V4 and paste it down for every hitter.

After that is done, hit Compile Cheatsheets again on the setup tab. It should alter your cheatsheets in the Compiler, pushing up players with a good AVG or OBP, and pushing down players with a poor AVG or OBP, assuming your league uses one of those categories in a roto scoring format. Was Mark Reynolds a little too high before? Thanks to CC/DB user jonny_utah who pointed that out, along with fellow user nutigergrad, which helped me realize the circumstances leading to this issue.

If you already have Draft Buddy set up for your league then you will want to hit Setup Draft Buddy again, to pull over the new data. If you’ve already input any picks or keepers in Buddy, uncheck the “Clear Keepers and Draft Picks” option on the setup tab in Buddy before hitting Setup Draft Buddy. Otherwise you will wipe out those picks and keepers.

I uploaded a new copy of the Cheatsheet Compiler this morning with this change.

Projections – Starting Pitchers

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The addition of Francisco Rodriguez is just one of the reasons that Mets starting pitchers will have more value this season than last.

Francisco Rodriguez is one reason the Mets starting pitchers will have more value this season.

Let’s take a quick stroll through the pitching realm today and look at any thing that might stand out.

Mets pitchers will be good this year for several reasons. They have a very good offense hitting for them and the bullpen is greatly improved. Throw in the fact that the new Citi Park looks like it might be an extreme pitchers park and you have to give the whole rotation special consideration.

Young pitchers I look to take the next step in development: Jonathan Sanchez, Chad Billingsley, Jon Lester, Scott Baker, Jair Jurrjens. Pitchers I look to regain some old form: Erik Bedard, Aaron Harang, Javier Vazquez.

Ted Lilly could be the kind of pitching bargain that helps to make champions.

Ted Lilly could be the kind of pitching bargain that helps make fantasy champions.

Special interest goes to Ted Lilly. This guy has never had a huge season and his career numbers aren’t eye-popping, but he gets it done and 2009 shouldn’t be any different. With a strong Cubs offense to back him up, Lilly is likely to pick up at least 15 wins with a sub-4.00 ERA. If your league mates fail to see his value, take advantage and grab him. His Average Draft Position is the 16th round, so I see a bargain waiting to happen.

Projections – First Base, Teixeira

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Albert Pujols

Albert Pujols is the man on the top tier. Don't overpay for him in your auction.

As we continue around the infield, we will take a look at first base.

The Big Magilla is Albert Pujols. He will be head and shoulders better than anyone else who qualifies at the position and occupies the entire first tier by himself. If you are in a draft league, he is worthy of the first pick (regardless how your league values steals). If you are in an auction league, you will want to get him as a value and not overpay for him.

If you can’t land Phat Albert, the second tier consists of about seven guys who are mostly interchangeable: Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Morneau, Prince Fielder, Lance Berkman, Kevin Youkilis and Ryan Howard. All of these guys are power hitters who aren’t likely to help you with SBs.

If you miss out on the second tier, you can do well with the guys sitting in the third tier, but they all have warts: Adrian Gonzalez (crummy park, offense), Joey Votto (young and rather unpredictable), Carlos Pena (will you get the guy who struggled in the first half of 2008 or the guy who hit well in the second half?), James Loney (crummy park), Garrett Atkins (trade talk rumors, could be grabbed as a 3B), Derrek Lee (age), Adam Dunn (big swing, often misses), Casey Kotchman (can he fulfill his potential?) and Chris Davis (see Votto). Loney. Votto, and Kotchman are the guys I think who will take the next step in their advancement to becoming legitimate fantasy forces while Lee is becoming a victim of his age and will slowly watch his skills erode.

Mark Teixeria will get lots of RBi opportunities, but will hit fewer HRs this year than in years past.

Mark Teixeria will get lots of RBi opportunities, but will hit fewer HR's this year than in years past.

The real question in this group is Teixeira. Tex’s projected HR total looks a little low at 23 when he has averaged 35 for each of the last five seasons. Though I don’t doubt Tex’s power potential, I do question his desire and opportunities in 2009. He’s got a guaranteed contract for the next 8 years, so he doesn’t have to push himself. He’s never played home games this far north since high school and the weather will slow him in the first six weeks of the season. Yankee Stadium (new stadium has same dimensions as old) is tougher on right-handed hitters slowing his HR rate when he hits from the right side of the plate. Going to the A.L. East will provide tougher pitchers for him every night than he was used to in the A.L West or N.L. East. Yankees fans have a reputation of being tough on players not living up to their expectations and he’s used to very laid back crowds in Texas, Atlanta and Los Angeles. Since Alex Rodriguez is hurt, Yankees fans will have to find another hitter to take their venom and Teixeira could be their victim of choice. By themselves, none of these reasons are worthy of projecting Tex any less than 30 HR’s for the season. But collectively, it makes me wonder if he’ll go deep as much in 2009 as he has in the past. Teixeira will still have a good batting average and drive in runs, but don’t look for a lot of bombs in 2009.

The depth is there for your fantasy team, but you have to figure out what you want and get him at the right time. The tough part is figuring out when to grab one and when to hold back, filling other positions. You DON’T want to be left holding an empty first base bag when all the second tier guys are gone. You don’t have to get Pujols, but the second tier guys are sure things while the third tier guys are a little sketchy in what they will give you.

Projections – HanRam

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Hanley Ramirez

Hanley Ramirez' swing won't benefit from his new body shape.

Next up in the review of the projections found in the Cheatsheet Compiler is Hanley Ramirez. The Florida Marlins shortstop has added 20-25 pounds of muscle to his body and looks like a statue of a Greek god. How will this affect his swing? Probably not too well.

Most players with Ramirez’ skill set are usually best off not adding muscle that will interfere with their swinging motion. Many players have tried this and most come away with a less than jubilant result (most recently: Jeff Francoeur‘s 2008 season).

Ramirez is an elite baseball player and will still be a 30-30 guy, but could be a 30-50 guy with his normal body. The muscle should also affect his swing and some of his hits will turn into outs (mostly strikeouts). With this in mind, I’d take Jose Reyes as the first SS instead of HanRam.

On another note, Jimmy Rollins has been dealing with discomfort in his back. This should not hinder his stats other than losing late game at bats in blowouts. The Phils will try to protect Rollins when he is not needed.

Projections – A-Rod

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The 2009 Cheatsheet Compiler is out and it looks better than ever. Make sure you get your FREE copy before you draft. [Editor's Note: Draft Buddy coming soon.]

There are several players whose numbers will look a little unusual for their typical performances. I will address them over the next few weeks. If I fail to address one that you are curious about, shoot me an email.

Alex Rodriguez.

A-Rod admitted to using a banned substance during his playing days in Texas.

There’s no better place to start than A-Roid, er… I mean A-Rod. Alex Rodriguez is regularly finding himself in one controversy or another. For every unflattering nickname he’s been called (Stray-Rod, Pay-Rod, A-Fraud, etc.) there’s a controversy behind it. You’d think that this guy would either figure out how to handle the pressure of the spotlight or how to stay out of it. But he hasn’t and yet another has caught up with him. The steroid scandal of the early part of this decade enveloped Rodriguez and he has even admitted to taking a banned substance for a three year period. Whether you believe that he only took one banned substance or that he quit in 2003 is not the issue, the issue is that he plays in New York City and the spotlight tends to be a lot brighter there than anywhere else.

New York fans have never really accepted him as a true Yankee. Derek Jeter is the favorite son and he has never publicly given A-Rod his stamp of approval. Until he does so, the New York faithful won’t really consider him a true pinstriper. Yankees fans have been as hard on A-Rod as they have been on just about everyone not named Jeter, Mattingly or Mantle who has played in the Bronx over the years. But since New Yorkers love a good scandal, A-Rod is a particularly good target for their venom.

Rodriguez has averaged .302/41HR/127RBI/19SB over the last three years, which included his monster 2007 season. But he wasn’t facing anything like he’s going to be subjected to like the steroid issue that will dog him all of the 2009 season. For 81 games, New Yorkers will be there to pounce if he is not earning his $32MM. He gets to play nine games in Boston, where the rival team’s fans won’t go easy, either. There are also three “away” games against the Mets, where the fans from Queens will share some quality time with Rodriguez. The other 69 road games will also be filled with tauntings and harassment, none of which Rodriguez has taken well over the years. He is rather thin-skinned and seems to wilt under the pressure of fans.

This doesn’t mean that Rodriguez will turn in a .240/10/40/5 line, but his numbers will suffer, especially since his contract is guaranteed for eight more years after this one.

As for your fantasy team, third base is a rather thin position right now once you get past David Wright, Aramis Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis, and Rodriguez, so I wouldn’t cross him off your list altogether. But reduce your expectations a bit and don’t make him the first 3B off the board. Look for Wright to take another step up and assert himself as the best hitting 3B in baseball, giving you a better choice for an early first round pick.

If Rodriguez can get off to a fast start, the New York faithful might show him a little mercy this season, otherwise, it will be a long season for A-Rod. I might be sitting on island doing so, but I’m predicting the latter.