Tag Archives: average draft position

Final Fantasy Baseball Projections Update for Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy

Posted on by
Reply

I am away for some rest and relaxation right now, but constantly connected and still updating ye ole website as possible and as needed. Today we were due for an update. I received a final fantasy baseball projections update from Steamer Projections Blog for the Steamer-Razzball projections. FantasyPros also updated their Zeile Consensus projections, and with Opening Day now officially in the books yesterday, I’m putting a cap on that and calling those the final projections as well.

The update is now available for the Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy. Each set of projections are updated, plus Average Draft Position (ADP) data from each of FantasyPros, Mock Draft Central and National Fantasy Baseball Championship.

The depth charts are taking a little more time than I’d like with all the final week changes, and my desire to not mess up the available players we already have in the Compiler & Draft Buddy. I updated the AL East so far, plus the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim so I could get Vernon Wells on the New York Yankees, and I’ll work away at the rest as time allows (and to not annoy the wife while on vacation).

Thanks once again to all the guys at FantasyPros, Steamer, MDC and NFBC for their contributions to the Compiler & Draft Buddy this fantasy baseball season. It is very much appreciated.

Thanks to all of you, our members, for continuing to use the CC/DB, or trying it for the first time this season. I hope you liked it, and will remember us again next year. Or, even better, if you play fantasy football make sure to try out the fantasy football version of the CC/DB.

Have a great season. Go Blue Jays!

Projections, ADP and Depth Charts Update

Status

Reply

The Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy update is now available! That was quite a chore, starting yesterday and finally finishing today, but we have updated projections from each of FantasyPros and Steamer-Razzball, Average Draft Position (ADP) data from each of Pros, Mock Draft Central and NFBC, plus updated depth charts. These updates also helped create updated fantasy baseball cheatsheets, for those who want to quickly print and run to their draft instead of downloading and setting up the CC/DB.

If I could mention the depth charts (and accompanying rosters) for a moment, I’m still not entirely happy with how they are presented on the website. The 25-man rosters are in good shape, as that is what I’m concentrating on mostly because those are most relevant for fantasy purposes, and they feed into the Cheatsheet Compiler (well, it all does). It is the remaining 40-man roster players and non-roster players that are tougher to keep straight.

As time allows, I can see I’m still going to continue to fuss around with the depth chart and roster pages to provide as much information, in a clean and organized format, as possible. What isn’t helping entirely is the roster data purchased from our stats provider. It gives me all the players, but in terms of identifying what roster a player is currently on, and whether he is injured or not, the data falls short in places.

Anyway, something for me to continue to work at and improve. If you are still drafting this week and Easter weekend leading to Opening Day, grab the update and good luck!

Steamer-Razzball and Zeile Projections Updates

Posted on by
2

Welcome to a new week, another week closer to the start of baseball season. I know a bunch of our members drafted this past weekend and I’m sure there are still plenty of fantasy baseball drafts scheduled the next couple weeks. That, coupled with March Madness* kicking off this week, and we’ve got a pretty darn exciting sports calendar ahead of us.

To start the new week, we have an update to both sets of projections available in the Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy. The Steamer-Razzball projections from Steamer Projections Blog and Razzball, plus the Zeile Consensus Projections from FantasyPros, each updated on Sunday.

Those are now updated on our side, so you need to open your copy of the Cheatsheet Compiler, go to the setup tab, select which one you want to update, and hit Update Projections. Remember, if you want to update both sets of projections, select one, click Update Projections, then click the button to move it from Site A to Site B. Once that is done, select the other set and click Update Projections again.

The Average Draft Position (ADP) data from each of Mock Draft Central, FantasyPros and National Fantasy Baseball Championship also received an update. Select the one you prefer on the ADP tab in the Compiler and it will update when you update projections.

Last but not least, in terms of update news, new projections meant the Compiler kicked out new baseball cheatsheets for us, if you simply want to print the player rankings from the website and go.

I received a note from member btscot7 this morning wondering why he was getting an error opening Draft Buddy… something to do with the TimerModule. From that he reminded me that the countdown timer does not work in 64-bit versions of Excel. This happened last year too, I just forgot exactly what the issue was.

As of this morning there is a new alternate version of Draft Buddy available from our download page for 64-bit Excel users. You won’t be able to use the countdown timer, as I simply had to remove it (sorry), but better to get 100% of the core features of Draft Buddy and lose one frill feature than not be able to use it at all.

* Are you a college basketball fan, or even March Madness bandwagon fan this time of year (like me)? Over at one of my other websites, MyOfficePool.ca, I run a unique March Madness Survivor Pool that has steadily grown in popularity. If you want to try it out, sign up over there and give it a shot. It is a lot of fun and frustration trying to pick winners each round of the tourney to move on – survivor style. And you can’t pick the same team twice, so plan ahead!

Fantasy Baseball Projections, ADP and Depth Chart Update

Posted on by
Reply

That took some time – longer than I expected (per usual) – but the projections, average draft position and depth charts are now updated for the Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy. Open your copy of the Cheatsheet Compiler, go to the update tab, make sure the Zeile (FantasyPros) option is selected for projections source, and click Update Projections.

No update to the Steamer-Razzball projections this week, only the Zeile projections. I updated the ADP from all three of our sources, FantasyPros, Mock Draft Central and National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Thanks once again to each of our partners for their contributions to the CC/DB.

I also ran through every team to update our depth charts too. In terms of other online features, the projections update creates new updated player rankings for our cheatsheets and player pages, like Bryce Harper.

We had some questions the last few days about the projections, including a discussion on our Facebook page when member smackie1970 noticed there are way too many at-bats going to the Tampa Bay shortstops. Make sure to check that out to understand the reasoning behind it.

Commenting on a previous blog post, member prnichols7807 asked why Holds (and I noticed, Quality Starts too) aren’t included in our Steamer-Razzball projections when they are over at Razzball. It seems that Razzball adds those to Steamer, and they want to keep them proprietary, which is certainly understandable considering HLD and QS are not as commonly projected by fantasy baseball prognosticators across the inter webs. My suggestion if you really want these in your copy of the Cheatsheet Compiler would be to do so using Projection Pal. If I have time then I will revisit that topic next week to show how I would do it.

Okay, that is it for the update. Have a good one, and good luck if your draft is on this weekend.

Big Baseball Update To End The Week

Posted on by
Reply

Where did the week go? Better question: Why do I find myself asking that same question every week?

Not to worry, I’m not expecting an answer to either question, but I do have good news in that we are going to finish the week just like it started, with an update to the Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy.

This time the update is to both sets of fantasy baseball projections – Steamer-Razzball and Zeile – plus the average draft position (ADP) data from all three sources – FantasyPros, Mock Draft Central and NFBC. Our depth charts are still in good shape, except the Chicago Cubs who got missed last time, so they got updated.

Since we have two sets of projections to update, and the Cheatsheet Compiler only does them one at a time, here are the steps you should follow, keeping in mind that from the default download file, Zeile projections are in Site A and Steamer projections are in Site B.

1. Update Steamer. Go to the update tab in the Compiler and change the Projections source drop-down to “Steamer-Razzball”. Click the Update Projections button.

2. Move Steamer. After you just updated, Steamer overwrote the prior projections in Site A. Lets move them to Site B so we don’t lose them from the Zeile update. Go to the update tab in the Compiler and near the top of the tab click the Move to Site B button.

3. Update Zeile. Repeat step 1 but change the Projections source drop-down to “Zeile (FantasyPros)”.

After that you are up to date.

For some added reading on the projections we are using in the Cheatsheet Compiler, check out Where Steamer and ZIPS Disagree by Dave Cameron over at FanGraphs. Then read Jared Cross’ response at the Steamer Projections Blog and adjustments made to Steamer as a result (and which led to the above noted update).

Longtime Draft Buddy member, BeanTown, did some sleuthing to find out if projections that are averages of a bunch of single sets of projections tended to be more or less accurate in general than single sets of projections. He found this article by Wil Larson over at FanGraphs, and mentioned similar findings from sabermetrician (is that a word?) Tom Tango. The findings? Average projections are good for hitters, but less good for pitchers. Interesting.

From that, BeanTown asked me how he could set the allocation keys in the Cheatsheet Compiler to use Zeile projections for hitters, and Steamer projections for pitchers. No problem I told him. Here is how:

1. First, set the default allocation on the setup tab to 100% Zeile (Site A). That we will use for hitters.

2. Then, go to the pitchers tab and do you notice just above the spreadsheet but below the toolbars a “+” sign. Click that and it will unhide some columns. In the yellow column under “Non-Default % Key” you can put a different allocation key for an individual player. Unless you’ve changed it, “8″ should be the 100% Steamer (Site B) key. Put 8 for the first player, copy it, and paste it all the way down for all players on the pitchers tab.

3. Hit Compile Cheatsheets.

After step 3, the cheatsheets are now generated based on Zeile for hitters, Steamer for pitchers. Hopefully that provides the best of both worlds.

Big Baseball Update To Start The Week

Posted on by
Reply

Okay, I know it is Tuesday, but that was supposed to be the lead headline yesterday on the website. It was a marathon session to get as much updated as possible for the fantasy baseball Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy since our prior update, last week.

I noticed the Zeile Consensus Projections from FantasyPros got updated over the weekend, plus our depth charts were getting a bit stale. So I started first thing Monday morning updating those projections, all of our depth charts (except the Chicago Cubs – nothing personal, there was no new roster info on them from our stats provider), and the Average Draft Position data from each of our sources, Mock Draft Central, FantasyPros and National Fantasy Baseball Championship.

That sounds like a pretty good update, right? I thought so, and I had that all finished Monday afternoon. You should have heard about it then (and if you clicked the “Check for Update” button in the Cheatsheet Compiler it would have told you there was an update).

However… before I announced the update, I got tinkering around with some of our pages on the website. Mainly the player pages, like this one for Joey Votto, or if you prefer a pitcher, how about David Price. I added player rankings, by position and overall, to the players pages. The rankings are highlighted in the upper-right, and also there is a short rankings box below the stats and projections showing not only the player’s ranking, but the players ranked right around that player.

I was pretty happy with the results. Then I continued tinkering on some of the formatting of our tables to give them a sharper look and feel. By the time all of this tinkering got done, it was late, I was tired, so I figured I would start first thing Tuesday properly announcing the update.

Lo and behold, this morning I wake up and FantasyPros updated the Zeile projections again, so back to work I go. And it was quite an update. For those who like deep, deep fantasy baseball projections, you should like this. The number of hitter projections expanded from 407 players to a whopping 702. On the pitchers side, they increased from 283 to 690.

Finally my day and half journey is finished so I can announce the projections update. Open your copy of the Cheatsheet Compiler, make sure on the update tab the projection source is set to Zeile (FantasyPros), and hit Update Projections. This will also bring in updated ADP and depth charts. The latest download file – make sure you are updated to version 1.1 – includes this latest update.

Have fun prepping for your fantasy drafts.

Projections and ADP Update Ready for the Cheatsheet Compiler

Posted on by
Reply

I posted this morning on our Facebook page and Twitter account that I was going to work on updating the fantasy baseball projections, Average Draft Position (ADP) and depth charts today for the Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy. That took some time, but the update is ready!

Both sets of projections, the Zeile Consensus Projections from FantasyPros, and the Steamer-Razzball projections from Steamer Projections Blog, were updated. Plus, I updated ADP from each of Mock Draft Central, FantasyPros and National Fantasy Baseball Championship.

I ran out of time to do the depth charts, so if a few people could look through them and let me know if there are any glaring changes that should be made, I’d appreciate it.

As a result of this update, we now have much deeper Zeile projections. Previously, I grabbed the Excel export file from FantasyPros, but member mjfhokie noticed that didn’t include the complete Zeile projections. Now I’m pulling them direct from FantasyPros’ API, resulting in much deeper projections. Our Zeile import used to include projections for 245 hitters and 181 pitchers, but is now at 358 hitters and 249 pitchers. Good stuff!

Note since this is a projections update, you do not need to download the Cheatsheet Compiler again. You can get the new data using the built in features. To update both sets of projections, perform the following steps:

1. Open your copy of the Cheatsheet Compiler, go to the update tab, and use the drop-down to choose Steamer-Razzball projections. Click the Update Projections button. You should see an indication that Steamer projections now are in Site A.

2. After that runs through the update, go back to the update tab and click the Move to Site B button, which will do just what it sounds like. It moves the now updated Steamer projections from section A to B on each of the hitters and pitchers tabs.

3. Now change the drop-down from Steamer-Razzball to Zeile (FantasyPros). Click the Update Projections button again.

4. Your ADP is already updated from the above steps. If you want to switch to a different source for your ADP, go to the adp tab, change the drop-down, and click the Update ADP button.

One final note that I did make some very minor changes to the Compiler and Draft Buddy download files, even though I didn’t change the version number. In the Compiler, the Check for Update button didn’t work properly. I fixed that.

In Draft Buddy, I noticed a problem on my Mac that threw an error near the end of the Setup Draft Buddy process. This was a curious one that happened because while running one macro (Setup Draft Buddy), Buddy tried to run another macro (recalculate the by pos tab), but ended up getting bungled up because the first task didn’t think the second task finished fast enough. I never noticed this issue on my PC, only the Mac.

Like I said, these are very minor issues, but if you do notice them and want to download a fresh copy of the Compiler or Draft Buddy, then you can certainly do that.

Enjoy the update, and again, let me know if you notice any significant depth chart changes that should be made, particularly those impacting the starting lineup, rotation and closers as shown on our summary depth chart in the Compiler.

Fantasy Baseball Cheatsheet Compiler Is Ready

Posted on by
Reply

Ahead of last season by two days, the Cheatsheet Compiler for fantasy baseball is ready to download. Just in time to stay in all weekend with the big snow storm, from where I am sitting anyway.

The Cheatsheet Compiler, Draft Buddy and Projection Pal for fantasy baseball are free to download and use. Updates are also free. I plan to update the projections, ADP and depth charts about weekly until Opening Day of the 2013 MLB season. You need Microsoft Excel to use any of the Compiler, Buddy and Pal.

To download the Cheatsheet Compiler, register an account (free), login and then proceed to the download page. Existing members should be able to simply login and go to the download page.

In terms of changes from last year, we have some powerful new stuff! Here are the details:

The depth charts are not yet complete, but the Compiler should be in good enough shape to run it through its paces. Let me know if you notice any issues. The depth charts, Draft Buddy and Projection Pal should be ready next week. Feedback is welcome, preferably here or via Facebook or Twitter. Enjoy!

Average Draft Position Inflated for Late Drafted Players

Posted on by
Reply

Inflated ADP? Uh oh, that doesn’t sound good. Well, it isn’t that bad. If I had room for a ridiculously long title, I would extend it with, “and what we’re going to do about it.” Here is my story and how it impacts fantasy baseball drafting, the Cheatsheet Compiler, and literally, what my response is to this discovery which in part prompted a new version of the Compiler, version 1.5 (now 1.6).

I was editing Rick’s article about overvalued and undervalued hitters, and it included a lot of Average Draft Position (ADP) numbers referenced from Mock Draft Central (MDC). Upon close inspection, Rick’s numbers, converted to a round and draft pick, didn’t match the numbers from the Cheatsheet Compiler, and that got me to take an even closer look at what the heck was going on to cause the discrepancy.

All players in the ADP table are sorted by their ADP from lowest to highest, representing which players are, on average, drafted earlier than other players. This creates essentially a ranking list from number one – first to get drafted on average – all the way down to as far as the ADP data travels – last to get drafted on average.

Average Draft Position (ADP)

Average Draft Position (ADP) from the Cheatsheet Compiler, updated February 14, 2011

At the top end of the ADP table included in the Compiler and with data from MDC, we have Albert Pujols: Rank 1st, ADP 1.0, High 1, Low 2, Adjusted 1.01

The adjusted number is a formula in the Compiler which converts the ADP number to an equivalent draft pick based on the number of teams in your league.

Next in line, Hanley Ramirez: Rank 2nd, ADP 2.2, High 2, Low 4, Adjusted 1.02

This all seems fine and dandy. Pujols is on average the first player drafted and therefore has an expected draft pick of 1.01. Ramirez is on average the second player drafted, giving him an expected draft pick of 1.02.

This goes on and on like this down the table until we get to the later drafted players. Particularly, the players who have a Low drafted of “ND”, or not drafted, in some mock drafts.

For these players, a wide spread is being created between the ranking and the calculated ADP from MDC. The further down the list we go, these key numbers – Rank and ADP – are getting further and further apart.

Adjusted ADP, old method

ADP with the Adjusted column calculated using the old method, based on ADP.

When players aren’t drafted in a particular mock draft, they receive a penalty addition to their ADP calculation, to ensure their ADP is not too low (i.e. which would indicate they are drafted earlier than they actually are on average), which I agree with, but it seems to be inflating the ADP number. Check the spread between Rank and ADP for players drafted beyond pick 200 overall. Some examples:

Jaime Garcia: Rank 200, ADP 265.6, High 147, Low ND, Adjusted 19.14

Ty Wigginton: Rank 218, ADP 311.3, High 190, Low ND, Adjusted 23.03

Luke Scott: Rank 281, ADP 435.1, High 199, Low ND, Adjusted 32.01

The reason I’m pointing this out is because it impacts the Adjusted calculation, which is the number that means the most to us in terms of referencing where a player is expected to be drafted. The Adjusted numbers get translated to the cheatsheets.

In prior years, and version 1.0 of the 2011 Cheatsheet Compiler, the Adjusted calc was based on the ADP number. I mean, that is the ADP, so why would we think it shouldn’t be based on the ADP? It says right there that Ty Wigginton is on average the 311th player off the board, which translates to an early 23rd round pick (14-team league).

Wait a second though. He isn’t on average the 311th player off the board. There are only 217 players ranked in front of him with a lower ADP. He’s on average the 218th player off the board. That translates to a mid-16th round pick. That is a huge difference, a 23rd versus a 16th round pick.

Adjusted ADP, new method

ADP with the Adjusted column calculated using the new method, based on Rank.

So which is it? Logically, the Rank has more relevance in determining the projected round and draft pick for a particular player. I still trust the order that MDC has developed as a result of its ADP calculations, but effective with version 1.5 of the 2011 Cheatsheet Compiler, the Adjusted calculation is now based on Rank, not ADP. The chart on the right shows the same table as above, but with the new ADP formula based on Rank.

This should result in little to no difference for players in the top half of the ADP table, because their Rank and ADP are very similar. Where we will see major differences are later drafted players. Ultimately, this will provide better information on our cheatsheets from which to make our draft day decisions.

Fantasy Baseball Players of Interest: Overvalued and Undervalued Hitters

Posted on by
Reply

Pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training this week, we are rolling for fantasy baseball season with our player projections and the Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy for 2011, loaded with those projections. It is an exciting time as we approach the dawn of another season.

As with any set of projections, there are going to be players projected somewhat higher or lower than what the majority of fantasy baseball players think. We can identify these players through a comparison of the player’s ranking versus their Average Draft Position (ADP). These players who are outside the norm can be considered sleepers or busts, or overvalued or undervalued for fantasy baseball.

The important thing to note isn’t that these players are projected “wrong”, but rather, does the projector with his contrarian thinking have valid reasons for projecting these players higher or lower than consensus? We certainly believe the reasons are valid, or we wouldn’t project the players that way.

So who are these players? Let’s take a look at some hitters who aren’t being taken seriously enough and those who are overvalued around Major League Baseball, and more importantly, fantasy baseball.

 
Catchers

Russell Martin has received no love since his breakout season of 2007. Since his game has slumped at the plate in the last few years, he has earned what he has received, but look for a revival in the Bronx. Hitting in the New York Yankees order can do wonders for anyone’s game and Martin should be rejuvenated with 2007-esque numbers. The steals might not break 20 like his big season, but look for the average and power to return. He’s being drafted as the 243rd player overall (18th round in a 14-team league) over at Mock Draft Central (MDC), so a mid-teen draft pick should net you a very solid catcher.

Kurt Suzuki always produces when healthy. Unfortunately, he missed almost a month of 2010 and didn’t get 500 at bats for the first time since his rookie season. Suzuki doesn’t put up huge numbers, but because he normally gets a lot of at bats, the stats pile up for him more than most catchers. He’s going in the 12th round at MDC, but should be going earlier than that. Assuming he can stay healthy, he will reward you.

There are four elite catchers in fantasy baseball: Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, Brian McCann and Buster Posey, with Posey joining the group in 2011. Carlos Santana will likely join the group next season, but is probably a cut below for right now.

If you can’t get one of the big four, there are nearly a dozen who can be lumped together with similar expectations. That group includes Martin, Suzuki and Santana. Unless you’ve really fallen in love with one of these guys, don’t jump the gun and draft one too soon, after the big four are drafted. Play the waiting game and get one for value once two-thirds to three-quarters of projected starting catchers are off the board.

 
First Base

Derrek Lee has fallen out of favor with fantasy players. His stats are sliding a bit from his glory days in Chicago, but if you can snag Lee a round or two before his 16th round ADP, you will love the results. Lee is healthy again and is determined to prove that he hasn’t lost it. The Orioles have constructed a nice batting order around Lee with Vladimir Guerrero and Mark Reynolds, which will help the cause. If you have the faith in Lee, he will pay off handsomely.

Aubrey Huff had a very nice 2010, but that wasn’t who Aubrey Huff is. Huff is more like a .270/20/80 guy, but he’s flying off the board at MDC in the eighth round as if he were going to produce .290/26/86 again. Don’t fall for the hype.

 
Second Base

Brian Roberts is a guy whose reputation will carry him for the next few years, even as his production declines. He’s still a good fantasy performer, but he now falls into a very large group of players who will give you similar numbers at a cheaper price, and likely less injury risk. Unless he falls in your draft, don’t spend a lot on him.

There are a number of players who will qualify at 2B this season but will play elsewhere. Most of them are good players to have on your team because they will qualify at multiple positions, including a hard to cover middle infield slot. Martin Prado is the best of the bunch and Ben Zobrist will help your team in a lot of areas. Chone Figgins is a notoriously slow starter, but is worth 30-40 steals by the end of the season.

 
Third Base

Chase Headley is ready to step up for the Padres. He has reached that magical age of 27 and will progress towards being a better all-around ball player. He’s not about to push David Wright off the All-Star team, but he will likely better all of his 2010 numbers. He’s going in the 21st round over at MDC, which is about ten rounds too late for his production. He’ll contribute nicely in all categories, including almost 20 steals. Grab him and enjoy the ride.

If there is one player that you should stay away from, it’s Adrian Beltre. He has shown us a pattern of playing hard only when his next contract is on the line. In a contract season, he is a monster. He averaged .310/28/89 in his three contract seasons. Compare that to his non-contract season average of .264/18/67. Why the Texas Rangers would back up the armored car for this slacker, no one knows. Make sure you don’t do it, even in a hitter friendly ballpark, unless you want to be disappointed.

 
Short Stop

Troy Tulowitzki had a September like no other. In September of 2010, Tulo went .376/15/40 with 30 runs scored. Those stats help to inflate his 2010 overall stat line and covers up the goose eggs he took from mid-June through late July as he was on the disabled list. He spent an extended stay on the DL two of the last three years and there are serious concerns about his durability. When he plays, he’s the second best shortstop in fantasy baseball. But it’s hard to get stats for your squad when you’re not on the field. If you draft Tulo, make sure you have an adequate backup ready to slide into his place for a spell, and hopefully not a long spell.

There are about a half dozen guys who can give you stats similar to the ones Jhonny Peralta will put up in 2011. The difference is that he will be on the board for about 10 rounds longer then each of the other players. Grab him shortly before his 18th round ADP and you will be happy. The bonus is that he is also 3B eligible in most leagues for a little flexibility, although SS is a more shallow position.

 
Outfield

Two things you need to know about Carlos Beltran’s 2011 season is that he’s healthy and it’s a contract season. He’s not about to return to the glory days of 40-40, but he should end up with 25 homers and 25 steals with an average north of .275. Beltran is going in the late 17th round at MDC, which is a bargain for what you’ll get.

Nick Markakis is a very good hitting outfielder. He’s somewhere in between the outlier seasons of 2007 when he was great and 2010 when he was mediocre. Since his stats have been steadily decreasing every season since his big 2007 campaign, many have given up on him. If you are looking for guy who can hit .300 and drive in 100 runs, then Markakis is your man. He might only hit 15 or so homers, but the overall value is much better than the eighth round ADP he is getting over at MDC.

Josh Hamilton, when healthy, is one of the most feared hitters in the game. But this is a guy who has a great amount of trouble staying healthy. He’s averaged 427 at bats each of the last two seasons and thinking he will see 600 AB is asking too much from a guy who throws his body around in centerfield. Expect him to excel when playing, but temper your expectations to around 500 AB.

Ichiro Suzuki is a great story of a guy who came over from Japan and excelled as an everyday player. He was the first Japanese player to do this and he has been awesome to watch for the last decade. Unfortunately, the man who relies on speed to change the game is slowing down as he ages. The steals are down around 30 and the batting average is getting dangerously close to .300. This isn’t a player to avoid, but Ichiro hits for no power and contributes very little other than his speed. He certainly isn’t a player to select in the early third round, as he is being drafted over at MDC.