Comparing Player Rankings to Average Draft Position

DeMarco Murray

Here is DeMarco Murray running through a huge hole against his current team, the Tennessee Titans, two seasons ago. Can he regain that 2014 form? We have him ranked much higher than his ADP.

We posted our initial fantasy football player rankings last week and one of the first things I wanted to do after the dust settled is compare them to average draft position data. This way I can see which players stick out as being ranked higher or lower than the consensus fantasy football community. These players likely require a little more analysis to determine if I can justify the difference.

After fussing with some database queries to convert ADP pick data to a position ranking, here are the results. Note the rankings are before the latest news on Le’Veon Bell that he could face a 4-game suspension for missing a mandatory drug test (which is equivalent to a failed test). Oh Le’Veon, you darn fool.

We will start with the tables, identify the players with the biggest discrepancies, and then come back later to add some commentary on those players as to why they are ranked where they are.

QB

+-------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Player                  | Tier | myRank | adpRank | Dif  |
+-------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Andrew Luck, IND        |    1 |      1 | QB3     | +2   |
| Drew Brees, NO          |    1 |      2 | QB6     | +4   |
| Aaron Rodgers, GB       |    1 |      3 | QB2     | -1   |
| Russell Wilson, SEA     |    1 |      4 | QB4     |  0   |
| Cam Newton, CAR         |    1 |      5 | QB1     | -4   |
| Ben Roethlisberger, PIT |    2 |      6 | QB5     | -1   |
| Blake Bortles, JAC      |    2 |      7 | QB9     | +2   |
| Philip Rivers, SD       |    2 |      8 | QB11    | +3   |
| Tom Brady, NE           |    2 |      9 | QB7     | -2   |
| Eli Manning, NYG        |    3 |     10 | QB10    |  0   |
| Kirk Cousins, WAS       |    3 |     11 | QB14    | +3   |
| Carson Palmer, ARI      |    3 |     12 | QB8     | -4   |
| Ryan Tannehill, MIA     |    3 |     13 | QB21    | +8   |
| Matthew Stafford, DET   |    3 |     14 | QB18    | +4   |
| Jameis Winston, TB      |    4 |     15 | QB17    | +2   |
| Derek Carr, OAK         |    4 |     16 | QB12    | -4   |
| Andy Dalton, CIN        |    4 |     17 | QB15    | -2   |
| Matt Ryan, ATL          |    4 |     18 | QB16    | -2   |
| Jay Cutler, CHI         |    4 |     19 | QB23    | +4   |
| Tony Romo, DAL          |    4 |     20 | QB13    | -7   |
| Marcus Mariota, TEN     |    4 |     21 | QB20    | -1   |
| Tyrod Taylor, BUF       |    4 |     22 | QB19    | -3   |
| Brock Osweiler, HOU     |    5 |     24 | QB22    | -2   |
| Joe Flacco, BAL         |    5 |     26 | QB24    | -2   |
+-------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+

Ranked Higher

Ryan Tannehill

Ranked Lower

Tony Romo

RB

+-----------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Player                | Tier | myRank | adpRank | Dif  |
+-----------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Le'Veon Bell, PIT     |    1 |      1 | RB1     |  0   |
| Todd Gurley, LA       |    1 |      2 | RB2     |  0   |
| Adrian Peterson, MIN  |    2 |      3 | RB4     | +1   |
| Jamaal Charles, KC    |    2 |      4 | RB7     | +3   |
| David Johnson, ARI    |    2 |      5 | RB3     | -2   |
| Matt Forte, NYJ       |    2 |      6 | RB13    | +7   |
| DeMarco Murray, TEN   |    3 |      7 | RB20    | +13  |
| C.J. Anderson, DEN    |    3 |      8 | RB16    | +8   |
| Lamar Miller, HOU     |    3 |      9 | RB6     | -3   |
| Devonta Freeman, ATL  |    3 |     10 | RB8     | -2   |
| Danny Woodhead, SD    |    3 |     11 | RB21    | +10  |
| Eddie Lacy, GB        |    4 |     12 | RB9     | -3   |
| Ezekiel Elliott, DAL  |    4 |     13 | RB5     | -8   |
| Doug Martin, TB       |    4 |     14 | RB11    | -3   |
| LeSean McCoy, BUF     |    4 |     15 | RB12    | -3   |
| Jay Ajayi, MIA        |    4 |     16 | RB24    | +8   |
| Jonathan Stewart, CAR |    4 |     17 | RB27    | +10  |
| Mark Ingram, NO       |    5 |     18 | RB10    | -8   |
| Carlos Hyde, SF       |    5 |     19 | RB17    | -2   |
| Thomas Rawls, SEA     |    5 |     20 | RB14    | -6   |
| Melvin Gordon, SD     |    5 |     21 | RB32    | +11  |
| Ameer Abdullah, DET   |    5 |     22 | RB29    | +7   |
| Dion Lewis, NE        |    5 |     23 | RB15    | -8   |
| Frank Gore, IND       |    5 |     24 | RB30    | +6   |
| T.J. Yeldon, JAC      |    5 |     25 | RB37    | +12  |
| Jeremy Hill, CIN      |    6 |     26 | RB28    | +2   |
| Ryan Mathews, PHI     |    6 |     27 | RB23    | -4   |
| Rashad Jennings, NYG  |    6 |     28 | RB36    | +8   |
| Matt Jones, WAS       |    6 |     29 | RB22    | -7   |
| Justin Forsett, BAL   |    6 |     30 | RB31    | +1   |
| Latavius Murray, OAK  |    6 |     31 | RB18    | -13  |
| Giovani Bernard, CIN  |    6 |     32 | RB26    | -6   |
+-----------------------+------+--------+---------+------+

Ranked Higher

DeMarco Murray

T.J. Yeldon

Melvin Gordon

Danny Woodhead

Jonathan Stewart

Ranked Lower

Latavius Murray

Ezekiel Elliott

WR

+------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Player                 | Tier | myRank | adpRank | Dif  |
+------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Antonio Brown, PIT     |    1 |      1 | WR1     |  0   |
| Julio Jones, ATL       |    1 |      2 | WR2     |  0   |
| Odell Beckham Jr., NYG |    1 |      3 | WR3     |  0   |
| A.J. Green, CIN        |    1 |      4 | WR5     | +1   |
| DeAndre Hopkins, HOU   |    2 |      5 | WR4     | -1   |
| Allen Robinson, JAC    |    2 |      6 | WR8     | +2   |
| Dez Bryant, DAL        |    2 |      7 | WR6     | -1   |
| Mike Evans, TB         |    2 |      8 | WR11    | +3   |
| T.Y. Hilton, IND       |    2 |      9 | WR17    | +8   |
| Amari Cooper, OAK      |    3 |     10 | WR12    | +2   |
| Jordy Nelson, GB       |    3 |     11 | WR7     | -4   |
| Brandon Marshall, NYJ  |    3 |     12 | WR13    | +1   |
| Demaryius Thomas, DEN  |    3 |     13 | WR16    | +3   |
| Larry Fitzgerald, ARI  |    3 |     14 | WR28    | +14  |
| Alshon Jeffery, CHI    |    3 |     15 | WR10    | -5   |
| Jarvis Landry, MIA     |    3 |     16 | WR15    | -1   |
| Brandin Cooks, NO      |    4 |     17 | WR14    | -3   |
| Keenan Allen, SD       |    4 |     18 | WR9     | -9   |
| Golden Tate, DET       |    4 |     19 | WR22    | +3   |
| Jeremy Maclin, KC      |    4 |     20 | WR23    | +3   |
| Doug Baldwin, SEA      |    4 |     21 | WR24    | +3   |
| Kelvin Benjamin, CAR   |    4 |     22 | WR20    | -2   |
| Julian Edelman, NE     |    4 |     23 | WR18    | -5   |
| Eric Decker, NYJ       |    4 |     24 | WR31    | +7   |
| Randall Cobb, GB       |    5 |     25 | WR19    | -6   |
| Allen Hurns, JAC       |    5 |     26 | WR26    |  0   |
| DeSean Jackson, WAS    |    5 |     27 | WR37    | +10  |
| Sammy Watkins, BUF     |    5 |     28 | WR21    | -7   |
| Markus Wheaton, PIT    |    5 |     29 | WR40    | +11  |
| Jordan Matthews, PHI   |    5 |     30 | WR27    | -3   |
| Donte Moncrief, IND    |    5 |     31 | WR29    | -2   |
| John Brown, ARI        |    5 |     32 | WR33    | +1   |
+------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+

Ranked Higher

Larry Fitzgerald

Markus Wheaton

DeSean Jackson

T.Y. Hilton

Ranked Lower

Keenan Allen

Sammy Watkins

TE

+-----------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Player                      | Tier | myRank | adpRank | Dif  |
+-----------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Rob Gronkowski, NE          |    1 |      1 | TE1     |  0   |
| Greg Olsen, CAR             |    2 |      2 | TE3     | +1   |
| Travis Kelce, KC            |    2 |      3 | TE6     | +3   |
| Coby Fleener, NO            |    2 |      4 | TE7     | +3   |
| Jordan Reed, WAS            |    2 |      5 | TE2     | -3   |
| Delanie Walker, TEN         |    3 |      6 | TE4     | -2   |
| Julius Thomas, JAC          |    3 |      7 | TE9     | +2   |
| Tyler Eifert, CIN           |    3 |      8 | TE5     | -3   |
| Zach Ertz, PHI              |    3 |      9 | TE12    | +3   |
| Gary Barnidge, CLE          |    3 |     10 | TE8     | -2   |
| Jimmy Graham, SEA           |    3 |     11 | TE11    |  0   |
| Dwayne Allen, IND           |    4 |     12 | TE15    | +3   |
| Eric Ebron, DET             |    4 |     13 | TE18    | +5   |
| Antonio Gates, SD           |    4 |     15 | TE14    | -1   |
| Martellus Bennett, NE       |    4 |     16 | TE13    | -3   |
| Ladarius Green, PIT         |    4 |     17 | TE10    | -7   |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB |    4 |     18 | TE19    | +1   |
| Jason Witten, DAL           |    4 |     19 | TE20    | +1   |
| Jordan Cameron, MIA         |    4 |     20 | TE17    | -3   |
| Zach Miller, CHI            |    5 |     24 | TE16    | -8   |
+-----------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+

Ranked Higher

Eric Ebron

Ranked Lower

Zach Miller

Ladarius Green

Projections, Depth Charts and ADP Update for Draft Buddy and LPP

Fantasy baseball season is in full swing now, and we have our first projections, depth charts and ADP update now available.

This data feeds into Draft Buddy custom cheatsheet and draft tracker, Last Player Picked dollar value calculator and our other online features (team-by-team projections, player comparison tool).

To update Draft Buddy, go to the action tab and click Update Projections. If you want to update both sets of projections – Steamer-Fangraphs and Zeile from FantasyPros, try this:

5. action tab

5. action tab

  1. Select one of the sources with the available drop-down. Click the Update Projections button.
  2. After the update finishes, click the Move Site A to Site B button. This will shift the newly updated projections from the first yellow highlighted section on each of hitters data and pitchers data tabs (Site A) to the second yellow highlighted section (Site B).
  3. Now select the other projections source with the drop-down. Click the Update Projections button.

Note the ZiPS projections we had last season are not yet available.

If you don’t already have Draft Buddy, then make sure to login plus renew your free subscription, or register a new account, and download. The download file includes the latest projections, which you can always test by clicking the Check for Update button on the action tab.

There was one small issue noticed with version 1.0 of Draft Buddy. It seems some of the relief pitchers in our depth chart were in the database (and therefore Draft Buddy) as position “P” instead of “RP”, and therefore Draft Buddy did not include them in the cheatsheets. Updating the projections fixes this, so no need to download again. Thanks to Mark for bringing that to my attention.

That it is for this update, about the update! Good to hear from some of you via Twitter, Facebook and email. Thanks for supporting Draft Buddy!

Updated ADP Analysis: Brady, Foster Overvalued; Gerhart Still Undervalued

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) during a NFL game between the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA. December 29, 2013; Photographer: Kellen Micah/Icon Sportswire

Tom Brady is a great player, but at this stage of his career he is overvalued in fantasy football drafts. Tony says there are plenty of quarterbacks typically drafted after Brady with more weapons and upside. Photo: Icon Sportswire

Back in mid-June, I wrote an Early Average Draft Position (ADP) Analysis article that mentioned some players that are overvalued or undervalued by fantasy football players. Now that preseason games are underway, we have a ton more player news to sift through, and ADP has changed over time based on that news, I thought it would be good to review ADP again and post an update.

Fantasy Football Calculator (FFC) and MyFantasyLeague.com (MFL) provide the ADP data. These lists are based on the thousands of mock drafts and real drafts that take place on their respective websites.

Here are some players I consider to be overvalued, where their ADP is earlier than they should be drafted, and undervalued, where their ADP is later than they should be drafted.

Overvalued

QB Tom Brady, NE
FFC ADP: 64 (6th Round, QB6) MFL ADP: 101.70 (9th Round, QB9)

Tom Brady is a great quarterback. He has the Super Bowl rings to back up that claim. However, in 2013 he was the 14th ranked quarterback in fantasy football, which translates to just average. He did not have his main weapons Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. He also had to deal with player injuries that kept Shane Vereen and Danny Amendola out of the lineup. So, needless to say, it was a rough year for Brady.

2014 is shaping up to be better with Vereen and Gronk apparently more healthy to start the season, but much of the supporting cast is filled with uncertainty, which is not good for a team that is pushing for a Super Bowl. Brady is 37 years old, so he has that going against him as well. Looking at Brady’s ADP, being drafted as the 6th quarterback overall is too early. The MFL ADP of 9th is closer to where I would draft Brady. However, there are other quarterbacks going after Brady that have more weapons and more upside. Keep the expectations for Brady in line as his available weapons are limited.

Draft these players instead: Colin Kaepernick, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler

RB Arian Foster, HOU
FFC ADP: 20.1 (2nd Round, RB11) MFL ADP: 22.47 (2nd Round, RB11)

Here are the stats for Arian Foster the last four seasons:

2010: 2,218 total yards, 18 touchdowns
2011: 1,841 total yards, 12 touchdowns
2012: 1,641 total yards, 17 touchdowns
2013: 725 total yards, 2 touchdowns

Foster only played 8 games in 2013 due to a ruptured disc in his back that required surgery. In 2014, he is looking for a huge bounce back year and many are expecting him to have one. I am not buying Foster’s stock at RB11.

Even outside of his 2013 back injury/surgery, he has always played through lingering injuries. This offseason, Foster has been making people scratch their heads with some of his remarks: repeating the same line over 10 times in a row during an interview and stating he contemplated retirement after the 2013 season and back surgery. Whenever a player is close to retirement and comes back to play, how much of his heart is still in the game? Even though Houston has two great wide receivers in DeAndre Hopkins and Andre Johnson to keep the defenses honest and Houston will still want to run the ball a lot, the quarterback situation is iffy and I cannot trust Foster playing a full workload and season without injuries.

Draft these players instead: Zac Stacy, Andre Ellington

WR Sammy Watkins, BUF
FFC ADP: 77.0 (7th Round, WR33) MFL ADP: 69.90 (6th Round, WR32)

Coming into the 2014 NFL Draft, Sammy Watkins was the number one wide receiver. He was taken by Buffalo, which to me, hurt his value due to E.J. Manuel still figuring out how to be a professional quarterback. Watkins has such unbelievable talent that Buffalo will figure out how to get the ball into his hands and let him show off his skills. However, being reliant on Manuel could make it a rough ride. Also, history shows that rookie wide receivers do not, except on rare occasions, have stellar seasons stats-wise, which is what we care about for fantasy football. Watkins has amazing talent and will be a great receiver in the NFL. However, in 2014, especially with Manual still trying to find his game, Watkins will be limited and should not be going as high as WR32.

Draft these players instead: Terrance Williams, DeAndre Hopkins, Golden Tate

Undervalued

QB Jay Cutler, CHI
FFC ADP: 94.9 (8th Round, QB12) MFL ADP: 114.44 (10th Round, QB12)

This past offseason we saw a lot of quarterbacks get paid. The one quarterback that I’m particularly a fan of for the 2014 fantasy football season is Jay Cutler. Before the season starts, Las Vegas already has Cutler listed with the sixth best odds to win the MVP award this season. I’m not saying that’s going to happen, however, if Cutler is in the running, it can only mean good things for the Chicago Bears. Cutler is not listed as a Top 10 quarterback when it comes to his ADP, but with two Top 10 wide receivers in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, a big TE in Martellus Bennett who is a solid red zone threat, and dual-threat running back Matt Forte, you have to think that Jay Cutler finds himself inside the Top 10 at seasons end if he stays healthy. With the defenses he’ll see this year and the passing offense that Marc Trestman brings to the table, Cutler is set up for a highly successful, and potentially career best, season.

Draft him ahead of these players: Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady

RB Toby Gerhart, JAC
FFC ADP: 38.5 (4th Round, RB19) MFL ADP: 55.53 (5th Round, RB21)

Toby Gerhart made his season debut in Week 2 of the preseason. While Gerhart’s apperance was overshadowed by an impressive performance by rookie QB Blake Bortles, the story for fantasy is Gerhart. The 2014 season has good things in store for the former Minnesota Vikings running back. As stated previously, I compare Gerhart to Michael Turner: going from backing up a future Hall of Famer to landing a starting role on another team. Jacksonville stated that Gerhart would be their workhorse running back and will likely see 300 touches. Workhorse running backs with this many touches are becoming a rare breed in the NFL. Jacksonville certainly has never been known as an offensive powerhouse, but former Jaguar Maurice Jones-Drew more than lived up to his fantasy 1st round pick status prior to his injury shortened 2012. Gerhart should finish in the Top 15 based on volume, and perhaps well inside that depending on his output per touch.

Draft him ahead of these players: Trent Richardson, Ryan Mathews, Shane Vereen, Bishop Sankey

WR Mike Wallace, MIA
FFC ADP: 75.1 (8th Round, WR31) MFL ADP: 66.93 (7th Round, WR28)

In 2013, the Miami Dolphins spent some money at wide receiver signing former Pittsburgh Steeler Mike Wallace. With the transition to a new team, new quarterback, and offensive coordinator, Wallace had a respectable year, but it certainly didn’t meet expectations. After getting a year under his belt with Ryan Tannehill, this is the year we see Wallace grab 75 balls for 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns. These kind of numbers should put him amongst the Top 25 receivers. As we saw last year, Miami tried to run the ball with Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas, but failed miserably. This year, the Dolphins brought in Knowshon Moreno, who already required knee surgery and finds himself behind Lamar Miller on the depth chart. With the uncertain backfield, Tannehill should throw a ton, which only bodes well for Wallace. Wallace’s second season in the league was his best to date, producing 1,257 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Tannehill is no Ben Roethlisberger, so I highly doubt we see those numbers, but an increased comfort level should result in a big improvement for Wallace.

Draft him ahead of these players: Percy Harvin, T.Y. Hilton, Jeremy Maclin, DeSean Jackson