Projections, Depth Charts and ADP Update for Draft Buddy and LPP

Fantasy baseball season is in full swing now, and we have our first projections, depth charts and ADP update now available.

This data feeds into Draft Buddy custom cheatsheet and draft tracker, Last Player Picked dollar value calculator and our other online features (team-by-team projections, player comparison tool).

To update Draft Buddy, go to the action tab and click Update Projections. If you want to update both sets of projections – Steamer-Fangraphs and Zeile from FantasyPros, try this:

5. action tab

5. action tab

  1. Select one of the sources with the available drop-down. Click the Update Projections button.
  2. After the update finishes, click the Move Site A to Site B button. This will shift the newly updated projections from the first yellow highlighted section on each of hitters data and pitchers data tabs (Site A) to the second yellow highlighted section (Site B).
  3. Now select the other projections source with the drop-down. Click the Update Projections button.

Note the ZiPS projections we had last season are not yet available.

If you don’t already have Draft Buddy, then make sure to login plus renew your free subscription, or register a new account, and download. The download file includes the latest projections, which you can always test by clicking the Check for Update button on the action tab.

There was one small issue noticed with version 1.0 of Draft Buddy. It seems some of the relief pitchers in our depth chart were in the database (and therefore Draft Buddy) as position “P” instead of “RP”, and therefore Draft Buddy did not include them in the cheatsheets. Updating the projections fixes this, so no need to download again. Thanks to Mark for bringing that to my attention.

That it is for this update, about the update! Good to hear from some of you via Twitter, Facebook and email. Thanks for supporting Draft Buddy!

Updated ADP Analysis: Brady, Foster Overvalued; Gerhart Still Undervalued

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) during a NFL game between the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA. December 29, 2013; Photographer: Kellen Micah/Icon Sportswire

Tom Brady is a great player, but at this stage of his career he is overvalued in fantasy football drafts. Tony says there are plenty of quarterbacks typically drafted after Brady with more weapons and upside. Photo: Icon Sportswire

Back in mid-June, I wrote an Early Average Draft Position (ADP) Analysis article that mentioned some players that are overvalued or undervalued by fantasy football players. Now that preseason games are underway, we have a ton more player news to sift through, and ADP has changed over time based on that news, I thought it would be good to review ADP again and post an update.

Fantasy Football Calculator (FFC) and MyFantasyLeague.com (MFL) provide the ADP data. These lists are based on the thousands of mock drafts and real drafts that take place on their respective websites.

Here are some players I consider to be overvalued, where their ADP is earlier than they should be drafted, and undervalued, where their ADP is later than they should be drafted.

Overvalued

QB Tom Brady, NE
FFC ADP: 64 (6th Round, QB6) MFL ADP: 101.70 (9th Round, QB9)

Tom Brady is a great quarterback. He has the Super Bowl rings to back up that claim. However, in 2013 he was the 14th ranked quarterback in fantasy football, which translates to just average. He did not have his main weapons Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. He also had to deal with player injuries that kept Shane Vereen and Danny Amendola out of the lineup. So, needless to say, it was a rough year for Brady.

2014 is shaping up to be better with Vereen and Gronk apparently more healthy to start the season, but much of the supporting cast is filled with uncertainty, which is not good for a team that is pushing for a Super Bowl. Brady is 37 years old, so he has that going against him as well. Looking at Brady’s ADP, being drafted as the 6th quarterback overall is too early. The MFL ADP of 9th is closer to where I would draft Brady. However, there are other quarterbacks going after Brady that have more weapons and more upside. Keep the expectations for Brady in line as his available weapons are limited.

Draft these players instead: Colin Kaepernick, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler

RB Arian Foster, HOU
FFC ADP: 20.1 (2nd Round, RB11) MFL ADP: 22.47 (2nd Round, RB11)

Here are the stats for Arian Foster the last four seasons:

2010: 2,218 total yards, 18 touchdowns
2011: 1,841 total yards, 12 touchdowns
2012: 1,641 total yards, 17 touchdowns
2013: 725 total yards, 2 touchdowns

Foster only played 8 games in 2013 due to a ruptured disc in his back that required surgery. In 2014, he is looking for a huge bounce back year and many are expecting him to have one. I am not buying Foster’s stock at RB11.

Even outside of his 2013 back injury/surgery, he has always played through lingering injuries. This offseason, Foster has been making people scratch their heads with some of his remarks: repeating the same line over 10 times in a row during an interview and stating he contemplated retirement after the 2013 season and back surgery. Whenever a player is close to retirement and comes back to play, how much of his heart is still in the game? Even though Houston has two great wide receivers in DeAndre Hopkins and Andre Johnson to keep the defenses honest and Houston will still want to run the ball a lot, the quarterback situation is iffy and I cannot trust Foster playing a full workload and season without injuries.

Draft these players instead: Zac Stacy, Andre Ellington

WR Sammy Watkins, BUF
FFC ADP: 77.0 (7th Round, WR33) MFL ADP: 69.90 (6th Round, WR32)

Coming into the 2014 NFL Draft, Sammy Watkins was the number one wide receiver. He was taken by Buffalo, which to me, hurt his value due to E.J. Manuel still figuring out how to be a professional quarterback. Watkins has such unbelievable talent that Buffalo will figure out how to get the ball into his hands and let him show off his skills. However, being reliant on Manuel could make it a rough ride. Also, history shows that rookie wide receivers do not, except on rare occasions, have stellar seasons stats-wise, which is what we care about for fantasy football. Watkins has amazing talent and will be a great receiver in the NFL. However, in 2014, especially with Manual still trying to find his game, Watkins will be limited and should not be going as high as WR32.

Draft these players instead: Terrance Williams, DeAndre Hopkins, Golden Tate

Undervalued

QB Jay Cutler, CHI
FFC ADP: 94.9 (8th Round, QB12) MFL ADP: 114.44 (10th Round, QB12)

This past offseason we saw a lot of quarterbacks get paid. The one quarterback that I’m particularly a fan of for the 2014 fantasy football season is Jay Cutler. Before the season starts, Las Vegas already has Cutler listed with the sixth best odds to win the MVP award this season. I’m not saying that’s going to happen, however, if Cutler is in the running, it can only mean good things for the Chicago Bears. Cutler is not listed as a Top 10 quarterback when it comes to his ADP, but with two Top 10 wide receivers in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, a big TE in Martellus Bennett who is a solid red zone threat, and dual-threat running back Matt Forte, you have to think that Jay Cutler finds himself inside the Top 10 at seasons end if he stays healthy. With the defenses he’ll see this year and the passing offense that Marc Trestman brings to the table, Cutler is set up for a highly successful, and potentially career best, season.

Draft him ahead of these players: Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady

RB Toby Gerhart, JAC
FFC ADP: 38.5 (4th Round, RB19) MFL ADP: 55.53 (5th Round, RB21)

Toby Gerhart made his season debut in Week 2 of the preseason. While Gerhart’s apperance was overshadowed by an impressive performance by rookie QB Blake Bortles, the story for fantasy is Gerhart. The 2014 season has good things in store for the former Minnesota Vikings running back. As stated previously, I compare Gerhart to Michael Turner: going from backing up a future Hall of Famer to landing a starting role on another team. Jacksonville stated that Gerhart would be their workhorse running back and will likely see 300 touches. Workhorse running backs with this many touches are becoming a rare breed in the NFL. Jacksonville certainly has never been known as an offensive powerhouse, but former Jaguar Maurice Jones-Drew more than lived up to his fantasy 1st round pick status prior to his injury shortened 2012. Gerhart should finish in the Top 15 based on volume, and perhaps well inside that depending on his output per touch.

Draft him ahead of these players: Trent Richardson, Ryan Mathews, Shane Vereen, Bishop Sankey

WR Mike Wallace, MIA
FFC ADP: 75.1 (8th Round, WR31) MFL ADP: 66.93 (7th Round, WR28)

In 2013, the Miami Dolphins spent some money at wide receiver signing former Pittsburgh Steeler Mike Wallace. With the transition to a new team, new quarterback, and offensive coordinator, Wallace had a respectable year, but it certainly didn’t meet expectations. After getting a year under his belt with Ryan Tannehill, this is the year we see Wallace grab 75 balls for 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns. These kind of numbers should put him amongst the Top 25 receivers. As we saw last year, Miami tried to run the ball with Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas, but failed miserably. This year, the Dolphins brought in Knowshon Moreno, who already required knee surgery and finds himself behind Lamar Miller on the depth chart. With the uncertain backfield, Tannehill should throw a ton, which only bodes well for Wallace. Wallace’s second season in the league was his best to date, producing 1,257 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Tannehill is no Ben Roethlisberger, so I highly doubt we see those numbers, but an increased comfort level should result in a big improvement for Wallace.

Draft him ahead of these players: Percy Harvin, T.Y. Hilton, Jeremy Maclin, DeSean Jackson

Players to Target for 2014 Fantasy Football Drafts

Players to target for 2014 fantasy football drafts: Arizona Cardinals WR Michael Floyd, Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan, Green Bay Packers WR Jordy Nelson and Houston Texans RB Arian Foster; Photographer: Icon Sportswire

In a roundtable format Dave, Tony, Tim and Mike tell us what players you should target in 2014 fantasy football drafts, including Arizona Cardinals WR Michael Floyd, Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan, Green Bay Packers WR Jordy Nelson and Houston Texans RB Arian Foster. Photo: Icon Sportswire

Our website contributors – Dave Stringer, Anthony Fashoda, Tim Grinstead (who does more in-season writing at Fantasy Throwdown) and yours truly – each came up with our own top players to target and players to avoid lists for fantasy football, from which I summarized into two articles. This is our consensus Players To Target.

[August 14th update, here is the accompanying Players To Avoid.]

The categories are straight forward, as the players are organized into 4 Vote, 3 Vote, 2 Vote groups, plus some select honorable mentions that only received 1 Vote each. Most of the players listed are relative to their current average draft position, so keep that in mind as ADP can change between now and draft day for players, or be subject to local bias by your fellow fantasy owners.

4 Votes

Nary a one! With only four of us and a simple guideline to pick ten names from all significant players for the 2014 fantasy football season to choose from, perhaps this isn’t very surprising.

3 Votes

Michael Floyd (Dave, Tony, Mike)

From Dave, Floyd is currently being drafted as the 20th to 23rd wide receiver behind the likes of Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, DeSean Jackson and Cordarelle Patterson. He’s better than all of them and several other players ahead of him. Perhaps the best current value at WR based on ADP. I’ll add that I felt back in May when Dave and I discussed our initial rankings that Floyd’s ADP would rise closer to the season, but it is still at a comfortable level for an excellent return on your investment.

Jordy Nelson (Dave, Tony, Tim)

Dave has no qualms getting the Green Bay Packers top wideout and Aaron Rodgers‘ favorite player to throw to with a late 2nd round pick. Tim makes a great point that with James Jones and Jermichael Finley out of the picture, Nelson will see more targets than in the past. Tony thinks it is possible Nelson joins Top 5 WR discussion (no word yet on who falls out of the mix, however).

Philip Rivers (Dave, Tim, Mike)

Tim tells us Rivers was the number three rated overall passer by Pro Football Focus, and ranked first in accuracy last season. He tossed 32 TD and only 11 INT with no real superstars. Dave echoed Tim’s thoughts saying Rivers was a top five quarterback in almost all formats last season but is only the 14th quarterback off the board currently with a late 9th round pick. I’ll add, I continue to expect big things from Keenan Allen, and more than a few fantasy experts think Ladarius Green breaks out this year. Rivers supporting cast is improved, if anything.

2 Votes

Arian Foster (Dave, Tim)

This selection is our most controversial. As you’ll see in our forthcoming Players to Avoid article, Foster also received two votes there from Tony and myself. The pro-Foster camp, Dave and Tim, can’t believe this former super stud turns into a fantasy chump in one year. Their eyes light up forecasting the number of touches Foster is in line for in 2014, and they say he represents solid value in the middle of the 2nd round.

Matt Ryan (Dave, Mike)

Even saying good bye to Tony Gonzalez this year, a big welcome back to Julio Jones gives Matt Ryan one of the best WR duos in the league, plus decent third and fourth receiving options between Harry Douglas and the running backs. He’s in his prime and being drafted as about the 9th quarterback off the board, which is his floor. Great value when playing the waiting game at quarterback.

Andy Dalton (Dave, Tim)

Everybody’s favorite whipping boy was top five in most formats last season but is currently the 17th quarterback drafted, which is just too low given his weapons. When nearly every fantasy expert far and wide bashes a player, that is usually a good opportunity he’s going to exceed expectations.

Dennis Pitta (Tim, Tony)

Tim says Pitta was emerging as a top tier tight end before going down to injury last season, and he could easily fill the void that Anquan Boldin left in this offense when he departed. Tony adds that new OC Gary Kubiak relies heavily on his tight ends, and Pitta should be a primary target for Joe Flacco, especially with Ray Rice suspended two games.

Zach Ertz (Tony, Mike)

Ertz is a huge, athletic target that started coming on late last season, on a team that will run a ton of plays. Ertz and Brent Celek combined for 68-971, 10 TD last season, and now it is Ertz’s show to grab the majority of that output.

Honorable Mention (1 Vote)

Jimmy Graham (Dave)

New Orleans Saints have lots of potential at wide receiver but most of it is unproven and Marques Colston seems to be slowing down. Even if his touchdowns regress slightly, he’s still in line for lots of targets in 2014, and he gives owners a major advantage at tight end.

Dwayne Bowe (Dave)

Bowe got paid and promptly wet the bed last season but is definitely worth the gamble as the 40th ranked wide receiver based on his current ADP. There is not much competition for targets in Kansas City.

Andre Ellington (Tim)

According to Pro Football Focus, Ellington gained 47.9% of his yardage on runs over 15 yards (highest in the league), showing his breakaway ability. Add to that the 4th best elusiveness score and a top 15 all position 0.32 fantasy points/per snap, this kid has tons of big play ability. With good hands and promise of an increased workload, Ellington can pay big dividends.

Rashad Jennings (Tim)

Jennings had 2.8 yards after contact per attempt, ranking him 3rd in league, and was top 10 in breakaway percentage. He has power and speed, and David Wilson is gone. The New York Giants have done well with powerful runners with speed during Tom Coughlin’s reign. At his moderate to low ADP Jennings represents very positive risk-reward.

Shane Vereen (Tony)

Given the uncertainty surrounding the New England Patriots receiving corps, with or without Rob Gronkowski in the mix, Shane Vereen is going to catch a lot of passes. He accumulated 69 total targets and caught eight or more passes four times in only eight regular season games played last season. If Stevan Ridley struggles, which is a given, expect Vereen to take some of his workload, too.

Terrance Williams (Tony)

Williams had a strong rookie campaign and Miles Austin is out the door. New OC Scott Linehan loves the passing game, and with the Cowboys defense looking potentially record breaking bad, Dallas will be forced to pass a ton. The catches can’t all go to Dez Bryant and a trending downward Jason Witten.

Eddie Lacy (Mike)

Those following our rankings know I recently pushed Eddie Lacy into our top tier at running back amongst the big four. He deserves it. There are nothing but glowing reports out of Green Bay on Lacy, and while the Packers shifted to more run focus with Aaron Rodgers sidelined last year, they clearly love what this kid brings to the table. He’ll have even more opportunity to bolster his fantasy scoring with opposing defenses threatened by the Rodgers-led passing game.

Emmanuel Sanders (Mike)

Even if Peyton Manning regresses to a normal Peyton Manning season, there is no doubt I want a piece of this offense on my fantasy team. Across the board it is really expensive to acquire however, except Sanders. I honestly didn’t think much of Sanders in Pittsburgh, but the impression I’m getting from media reports out of Denver is the Broncos are going to prove they were right acquiring this guy. Considering the players getting drafted around Sanders, there is a ton of available upside here.