Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch – Ludwick, Maybin, Pena, Collmenter

Posted on May 20, 2011 by Rick Milleman

Stock Up

Ryan Ludwick, OF, SD – Ludwick put together a big week hitting .440 with three homers, 10 RBI and scoring 5 runs. That is quite a feat for a guy playing in an extreme pitchers park on an anemic offense. Don’t expect a repeat of his monstrous 2008 season, but a good season could be in the cards for Luddy.

Justin Turner, 2B, NYM – Turner is taking full advantage of the second base vacancy that was created by injuries and poor play. Over the last week, he has piled up .400/1/10/4 and is trying to make his case for the starting team. The Mets and Turner are hot right now and he could be a very useful middle infield piece for the time being.

Cameron Maybin, OF, SD – Maybin has been a highly regarded prospect for several years now and the luster is beginning to wear off as he has not lived up to his billing. Maybe a change to San Diego and the relaxing SoCal lifestyle has finally helped him find his place in baseball. He has put up .368/2/5/5 with a stolen base over the last week and seems to be the catalyst in the suddenly hot Padres offense.

Ronny Cedeno, SS, PIT – Cedeno has been losing some starts to Brandon Wood, but should find more starts with weeks like this one: .444/1/4/5. Cedeno has always had a little pop in his bat, but he usually struggles with batting average, meaning that this isn’t likely to last. But enjoy the ride while he’s providing you with quality numbers from the very thin shortstop position.

Brad Hawpe, 1B/OF, SD – Yet another Padre who is hot, Hawpe has crushed the ball to a .381/1/3/6 tune over the last week. This guy has always had the goods, but keeping it all together for lengths of time was always his problem. Enjoy it as he’ll probably add some homer power to these numbers.

Carlos Pena, 1B, CHC – Is that the same Carlos Pena who had great difficulty keeping his batting average above the Mendoza Line? Yes it is and he’s smoking the ball right now on the North Side with a .316/2/5/4. He’s always had great power, but ride him while the average is good.

Josh Collmenter, SP, ARI – Collmenter was the focus of a prospect report last winter and he seems to be living up to his billing. His delivery is tough for hitters as the ball seems to come out from right above his head. He’s 3-0 with a 0.69 ERA and a 0.50 WHIP in two starts and seven relief appearances. As long as he keeps pitching like this, he’ll keep his rotation slot.

Ryan Vogelsong, SP, SF – Vogelsong has been a journeyman minor leaguer for quite a few years and San Francisco has found the right spot for him. He’s 3-0 with a 2.36 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in four starts and two relief appearances. With question marks surrounding Barry Zito and Madison Bumgarner, Vogelsong should keep his spot in the rotation as long as he keeps pitching well.

Colby Lewis, SP, TEX – Lewis had a breakout season in 2010 after a journeyman’s career. He struggled in his first four starts going 1-3 with a 6.95 ERA and only 14 strikeouts, but he has really turned it around in the last four starts, going 3-1 with a 1.67 ERA and 24 strikeouts. Buy now and point out the .500 record and hope that his owner hasn’t noticed the reversal of fortunes.

Stock Down

Albert Pujols, 1B, STL – Pujols got a second game this season at 3B and it is very possible that he might just find three more this season to get to five (an eligibility qualifying mark in many leagues), but his bat has been awful in the last week (.250/0/1/1/1). It has more to do with the surrounding cast than a Pujols slump, as Colby Rasmus, David Freese, Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman have all sustained injuries. Without any coverage, there’s no reason for pitchers to throw Phat Albert anything decent.

Evan Longoria, 3B, TB – Longoria is still not back to full speed yet after his oblique injury. He posted a .185/0/0/3 line, something we might expect from Eva Longoria, not Evan. As he regains his strength and stamina, Longo will be back to top form.

Ryan Howard, 1B, PHI – Howard is suffering from the same lack of help that Pujols is facing. Without Chase Utley, Domonic Brown and Jayson Werth, Howard doesn’t see too many worthwhile pitches. As the team gets healthy and the summer heats up in Citizens Band Box Park, Howard will post the numbers you’ve come to expect.

John Danks, SP, CHW – Danks hasn’t been miserable this season, he’s just been unlucky. At 0-6, the quick glance looks bad but his K/9 rate of 6.48 is slightly below is career rate of 6.94 but his batting average against is .274 compared with a career mark of .251 which is probably caused by a BABIP of .313 compared to his career average of .286. His walks are also up a little bit, so he may be causing some of his own damage. There’s nothing that says he should be 0-6, but there’s also no indications that he’ll turn things around anytime soon. He’s a great guy to buy low and stash, but he’s probably not ready to start for your team until he shows some serious upward movement in his game.

Ryan Franklin, RP, STL – If the fact that Franklin lost his closer role didn’t tell you he’s sucking this year, maybe his 12.46 ERA and 2.54 WHIP over the last two weeks will. If he’s still on your team, dump him now. The Cardinals have two legitimate closer options in Fernando Salas and Eduardo Sanchez to make sure that Franklin is nothing more than a setup man for the rest of his days in St. Louis.

Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch – Bloomquist, Quentin, Kendrick

Posted on April 8, 2011 by Rick Milleman

As we finish up the first full week of the Major League Baseball season, let’s look back at what, or who, is trending. Several players are doing better than expected and several are doing worse, but remember this is a 162 game season and the trends tend to even out over the marathon that baseball is. This is more about streaks, which can be the difference between picking up a few extra points in batting average or grabbing a few extra stolen bases now since they can be harder to come by in September.

Stock Up

Willie Bloomquist, 3B/SS/OF, ARI

The benefactor of Stephen Drew’s injury is Bloomquist. After Thursday, Bloomy was hitting .348 with1 HR, 4 RBI, 4 R and 5 SB. There is nothing in his past that suggests that he should continue this for any length of time, but ride him while he’s hot. As long as he is hitting, he’ll get at-bats, even after Drew returns.

Carlos Quentin, OF, CWS

Quentin is absolutely raking. After six games, he stands at .458/2/10/6. There’s nothing to say that he can’t repeat his monstrous performance from 2008, but he’s going to have to stay healthy to do it and that seems to be a big problem for Quentin.

Howie Kendrick, 1B/2B, LAA

Kendrick was often viewed as a future batting champion with a little pop in his bat, but not this much. After six games, Kendrick has put up .417/3/3/7. He won’t keep that pace up, but this may be the season he finally steps into the elite fantasy second basemen tier.

Brennan Boesch, OF, DET

Boesch is a good player who just needs the chance to play every day. Boesch has posted a .421/1/5/7 in five games and even though he won’t keep up that pace, he will continue to get at-bats as long as his bat is hot.

Alex Avila, C, DET

Avila was being hyped as a future star at catcher before last season. When his 2010 campaign went sour, so did most fantasy owners and Avila’s stock dropped for the 2011 season. He’s having the kind of season many envisioned last year with a .294/2/7/4/1. This is the kind of stuff you’d love to post for your backstop this season.

Alex Gordon, OF, KC

Is Gordon finally breaking loose? He was a much ballyhooed prospect a few years back and it was beginning to look like he was a bust, but perhaps that was premature. After six games, Gordon is riding .379/1/4/7 line for the Royals and may be headed for a big breakout. Watch him closely or stash him on your bench if you have a slot.

Stock Down

There are really too many to mention here, and we don’t want to set off a panic amongst Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford owners, amongst others. We are a little over a week in. Say it again – we are a little over a week in to a long season. Every season has its surprises, both good and bad, but it is too early to foresee these first round studs being complete busts that you should jump ship.

Longoria is injured, unlike the others, and if someone is willing to give you fair value while you don’t believe he’ll be back soon or back to the level he should be, then by all means make a trade. If someone else in your league owns these guys and they’ve hit their own panic button, throw them a trade offer. Don’t be insulting, but something reasonable at least starts the conversation that you are interested.

Good luck, and cheers to the start of another season!

Fantasy Baseball First Base and Third Base Rankings

Posted on March 7, 2011 by Rick Milleman

It is a big rankings week at DraftBuddy.com as we roll out rankings for all of the positions, and just in time as there are less than four weeks to Opening Day, and fantasy baseball drafts are in full swing. Let’s start with the corner infielders, first base and third base, which is going to represent the cornerstone of many a fantasy team this year including the number one player in the game.

Tier 1

1. Albert Pujols, 1B, STL – Where else can we start than with Albert Pujols? He is simply the best player in fantasy baseball. His elbow is giving him some trouble that will one day have to be fixed with surgery, but until then, he is still the best. There should be NO reason that you skip over him with the number one pick in your fantasy draft, especially now that 2011 became a contract year for him.

Tier 2

2. Ryan Howard, 1B, PHI – Howard is still an elite player, despite struggling in 2010 with injuries. He is well worth a first round pick but is being drafted at the beginning of the second round, which makes him a nice bargain. Jayson Werth won’t be protecting him this season, but Howard is still worth a late first rounder.

3. Joey Votto, 1B, CIN – Votto has reached the elite level of players for fantasy purposes. He’s being drafted in the middle of the first round in most drafts, which is about right. Look for him to put up similar numbers to his 2010 season for the next five years or longer.

4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, DET – Cabrera had issues with alcohol for the second offseason in a row, but don’t expect that to bother him too much during the 2011 season. He’ll still produce his typical .310/35/115 line we’re used to seeing from the big fellow.

5. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, BOS – The question last year about A-Gone: How good could this guy be in a better hitters’ ballpark and in a better lineup? We’re about to find out. Playing in the Boston lineup should be a lot of fun, so look for almost 40 bombs and more than 125 ribbies. Gonzalez may start slow returning from offseason shoulder surgery.

6. Prince Fielder, 1B, MIL – Fielder struggled in 2010 because he wasn’t very happy. The team spent a lot on pitching to become more competitive and this is a contract season for Fielder. He’s not getting a lot of love as he’s slipped into the middle of the second round of many fantasy drafts. He’ll get you nearly 50 bombs and drive in around 115 while hitting around .285. What’s not to like?

7. David Wright, 3B, NYM – Wright had a nice comeback season following a rocky 2009. Look for numbers in the .297/27/100/20 range. Wright is the elite third baseman, so putting him at the hot corner of your fantasy squad could be the foundation of a great season.

8. Mark Teixeira, 1B, NYY – Teixeira continues to thrive with the Bronx Bombers. A line of .273/36/115 is something I’d want in my fantasy lineup. Tex marks the end of the elite first basemen, so make sure to grab one of the top seven if you are in a league that requires you to field a 1B, CI and UT.

Tier 3

9. Evan Longoria, 3B, TB – The young phenom from Tampa Bay is going to light it up for the Rays. The only question is whether anyone will show up to see him do it at Tropicana Field. A .279/28/100 line is a good expectation. He’s going in the top five of most fantasy drafts, which is a little rich as there are several others who will provide you similar numbers a round later.

10. Adam Dunn, 1B, CWS – Dunn is the model of consistency. He has hit between 38 and 46 homers every year for the last seven seasons. This season should be no different as he gets to hit in one of the most homer friendly parks in the Majors and likely ends up near the higher end of that bracketing. He should be 1B eligible in your league, but his batting average will keep him out of the elite group.

11. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY – A-Rod is going in the second round of most mock drafts, which is a steal. His contract isn’t up at the end of the season, so look for a standard line of .274/32/109/12. If you can pair him with an elite 1B, you have a serious infield corner combo that will push your team to the top of the power categories.

12. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, WAS – A lot like Longoria with a little less power, Zimmerman is still quite a player for Washington. He doesn’t get a whole lot of notoriety because his team plays in obscurity, but the 26-year old will likely post numbers around .292/24/96. His overall numbers are similar to Longoria and Rodriguez, so grab the one who slides the farthest in your draft.

13. Paul Konerko, 1B, CWS – Konerko had quite a renaissance last season. I wouldn’t expect a repeat, even with Dunn in the lineup, but a .294/34/100 season is well within reason. He’s a great fourth or fifth round grab if you miss out on the elite first basemen above.

Tier 4

14. Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, BOS – Youk moves across the diamond to 3B and gets A-Gone as lineup protection. He’ll need to stay healthy, but a .304/25/90 season is pretty good for your hot corner. He’s being drafted early in the third round of most mock drafts. There is some risk with him because of uncertainty he can stay healthy, so it would be wise to invest in an adequate backup.

15. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PIT – Alvarez is a high risk, high reward guy. He is very young and looks to be budding into quite a power hitter. Can Alvarez take the next step forward at the tender age of 24? He should be good this year, but he will also be a drain on your batting average.

16. Jose Bautista, 3B, TOR – Bautista came out of nowhere and hit 54 bombs last year. Is Bautista for real or does he have a pharmacist who is one step ahead the MLB chemists? Fantasy owners are definitely skeptical of a repeat, so depending on your fellow owners he could be overvalued or undervalued in your draft. The Toronto Blue Jays believe in him as they signed him to a long-term deal. If you invest, understand your batting average will suffer.

17. Billy Butler, 1B, KC – Butler is starting to come of age. He will likely be the designated hitter in Kansas City for most games this season, but that doesn’t matter as long as he can rake. At a .324/20/85 clip, Butler will be a big help to your team for a sixth round pick.

18. Mark Reynolds, 3B, BAL – Reynolds was traded to Baltimore to act as their third baseman. The Diamondbacks are trying to rid their franchise of the free swingers who would air condition Chase Field and Reynolds was the man to start with. Reynolds has the top three strikeout seasons of all time and his batting average will really hurt your team average, but if you are desperate for power and a dozen or so steals, Reynolds fits the bill.

Tier 5

19. Michael Young, 3B, TEX
20. Kendry Morales, 1B, LAA
21. Derrek Lee, 1B, BAL
22. Pablo Sandoval, 3B, SF
23. Aramis Ramirez, 3B, CHC
24. Gaby Sanchez, 1B, FLA
25. Justin Morneau, 1B, MIN
26. Chase Headley, 3B, SD
27. Ian Stewart, 3B, COL
28. Carlos Pena, 1B, CHC
29. Mitch Moreland, 1B, TEX
30. Placido Polanco, 3B, PHI

St. Louis Cardinals—Studs and Duds

Posted on March 18, 2010 by Rick Milleman

The St. Louis Cardinals seem to be practicing the old fantasy baseball strategy of “Studs and Duds”.

In this strategy, a team uses a very large amount of their auction dollars on a few superstars and then fills in their rest of their lineup with a lot of $1 and $2 players. The idea being that the studs will pile up enough quality stats to allow the duds to fill in a little and put your team over the top. Unfortunately, this strategy rarely works and it looks like it will only work in St. Louis this season due to such a weak division.

The Cardinals will trot out the best 1-2 pitching punch in the National League in Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. They finished second and third in the National League Cy Young voting last season and should both be contenders again this season. Between the two they should pile up almost 35 wins, 350 strikeouts and eat up over 400 innings.

After the two big dogs in the rotation, they get rather thin. They will trot out Brad Penny and Kyle Lohse, who have both had some success mixed with some disappointments, but neither is the kind of guy you want to rely on in Game 3 of a playoff series.

On the offensive side, there may be no more dynamic duo than Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. Both can hit for power and average and create a lot of runs. Unfortunately, there aren’t many other players around them who will be on base for Pujols and Holliday to drive home.

The left side of the infield is filled with question marks about who is going to play. Will Brendan Ryan be healthy enough to play shortstop and can he actually use a bat? Can David Freese finally claim the third base job and will his offense develop? If not, can Julio Lugo and Felipe Lopez fill in and play good enough to be respectable?

There are several positions where the Cards know what they have and how to use them. Skip Schumaker’s bat is solid, but unspectacular, but will he continue to develop at second base? Ryan Ludwick looks like a good power hitter to slot behind Holliday in the batting order, but his monstrous 2008 season was probably the exception and not the norm.

Colby Rasmus is a good all around player but it doesn’t look like he will develop into the superstar that some minor league projections had for him. Yadier Molina won’t hurt you with his bat, but he isn’t a real threat, either.

Will the duds do enough to put the Cardinals into a winning situation and slip by five weak foes in the N.L. Central? Probably. But are they good enough to make it out of the first round of the playoffs? Not a chance.

There once were some duds from St. Louie
Whose offense was very puny
But with Pujols and Holliday
They hope to rule the day
But they will struggle without enough quality

Player Rankings—Corner Infielders

Posted on March 3, 2010 by Rick Milleman

1. Albert Pujols, 1B, STL—Where else can you start than with Albert “Don’t Call Me ‘El Hombre’” Pujols? He is simply the best player in fantasy baseball. His elbow is giving him some trouble that will one day have to be fixed with surgery, but until then, he is still the best. There should be NO reason that you skip over him with the number one pick in your fantasy draft.

2. Ryan Howard, 1B, PHI—Howard is a stud. He is well worth a first round pick but strikes out a lot. He is 30 years old this season, so he still has at least 5 years at the elite level, so bid confidently.

3. Prince Fielder, 1B, MIL—Fielder is younger version of Howard, he just doesn’t strike out as much. He’ll get you nearly 50 bombs and drive in around 125 while hitting around .290. What’s not to like?

4. David Wright, 3B, NYM—Wright struggled all through the 2009 season. First his power seemed sapped by the new CitiField and then he got beaned in the head and never got back on track. Look for a good comeback, but just temper the homer expectation as the power alleys in the new stadium play very deep. Look for numbers in the .308/25/104/26 range.

5. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, DET—Cabrera had issues with alcohol over the offseason, but don’t expect that to bother him too much during the 2010 season. He’ll still give you the typical .310/35/114 line were used to seeing from the big fellow, but don’t expect this to be any kind of leap forward in the age 27 season like the old fantasy myth goes.

6. Kendry Morales, 1B, LAA—Morales finally came into his own last season and looks to keep that going in 2010. He’ll likely put up stats on the good side of .300 average, 35 dingers, and 110 ribbies. These are some pretty nice numbers for a guy you can probably get in the 4th round of your draft.

7. Pablo Sandoval, 1B/3B, SF—He’s young, he’s versatile, and he’s a hitter. What more do you need? This 23-year old is likely to hit around .322/24/114 all while qualifying at both infield corners. Unfortunately, it looks like his days as a catcher are behind him, but this is a good looking ball player who is still a long way from his ceiling.

8. Mark Reynolds, 1B/3B, ARZ—Despite the heat in Phoenix, there is little reason to turn on the air conditioning at Chase Field because of Reynold’s big swings. He misses an awful lot of the time, but he’ll also make some contact with a lot of long flies. If you can stomach a batting average south of .260 and about 200 Ks, his power is a nice touch in your infield.

9. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, SD—How good could this guy be in a better ballpark and in a better lineup? We’ll likely find out in July when the Padres will probably unload him for a ton of prospects. If he stays in San Diego, look for almost 40 bombs and more than 100 ribbies. If he gets traded, those numbers could go up.

10. Justin Morneau, 1B, MIN—Morneau has battled a number of injuries in the last few years and is starting to get a reputation for being a guy that is good in the first half and bad in the second. He’ll still belt more than 30 homers and 115 RBI, so take him in your draft and plan to trade him at the first sign of that back acting up again.

11. Adam LaRoche, 1B, ARZ—LaRoche is the anti-Morneau. He typically has an average first half followed by a big second half. He’s the guy you want to pick up after you’ve traded away Morneau during the All-Star break. Playing on a one-year deal in Arizona will give him an opportunity to put up some big numbers on his way to a big payday after the 2010 season.

12. Evan Longoria, 3B, TB—The young phenom from Tampa Bay is going to light it up for the Rays. The only question is whether anyone will show up to see him do it at Tropicana Field. A .273/34/105 line is a good expectation.

13. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, WAS—A lot like Longoria with a little less power, Zimmerman is still quite a player for Washington. The 25-year old will likely post numbers around .285/30/99.

14. Joey Votto, 1B, CIN—Votto is a very good player who has likely reached his ceiling at .321/26/99/9. He’s a valuable player for many fantasy teams, but he’s not a guy to reach for in the third round of your fantasy draft.

15. Mark Teixeira, 1B, NYY—Teixeira found his power stroke at the new Yankee Stadium last season and will continue to thrive with the Bronx Bombers. A line of .279/32/123 is something I’d want in my fantasy lineup, but not for a first round pick. Let him slide a bit or find another player in a later round.

16. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY—A-Rod finally got his World Series ring, but is constantly surrounded by controversy. Since he’s used to it, don’t look for his numbers to drag in 2010. But don’t look for anything sensational like his 2007 season when he was playing for a new contract. A line of .281/30/93/15 is great, but there are a handful of third basemen out there who will post similar numbers that you can draft in a later round. Skip A-Rod’s reputation and find a better value a few rounds later.

The Next 15

17. Adam Dunn, 1B/OF, CIN
18. Carlos Pena, 1B, TB
19. Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, BOS
20. Billy Butler, 1B, KC
21. Derrek Lee, 1B, CHC
22. Aramis Ramirez, 3B, CHC
23. Ian Stewart, 2B/3B, COL
24. Chipper Jones, 3B, ATL
25. Chone Figgins, 3B, SEA
26. Michael Young, 3B, TEX
27. Troy Glaus, 3B, ATL
28. Gordon Beckham, 3B, CWS
29. Garrett Jones, 1B/OF, PIT
30. James Loney, 1B, LAD
31. Chris Davis, 1B, TEX

More rankings: Catcher | Middle Infield | Outfield

Injury Status Update—Hitters

Posted on February 17, 2010 by Rick Milleman

Following up our injured pitchers analysis, here is a recap of hitters coming off injury in 2009, and whether they are worth the risk fantasy-wise or not for the 2010 season.

We’re giving the Green Light to players not expected to be negatively impacted by their most recent injury woes. There are some big names in the High Risk, High Reward category but they have some injury risk you need to be aware of.

Tread Carefully is akin to saying, let someone else take the leap of faith, and Not With A Ten Foot Pool should be pretty self-explanatory.

Green Light

Kyle Blanks, Padres—Blanks’ foot injury should be a non-factor in 2010. He’ll have to move out to left field to get playing time, but the pop in his bat makes him worth a draft pick. You’ll likely get him in the mid to late rounds and is a great guy to stash on your bench and watch him flourish.

Jeff Francoeur, Mets—Francoeur might be ready to break out. His thumb looks good and he’s now playing for the Mets and out of his hometown’s spotlight. If he can lay off the breaking balls and the outside pitches, he could be special this season. Wait until the middle rounds and see if he can give you the numbers we all expected from him a few years ago.

Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks—Jackson is a great comeback candidate. He seems to be over the valley fever that destroyed his 2009 season and should be back in 15 homer and 85 RBI territory. Draft him in the middle rounds and enjoy the ride.

Grady Sizemore, Indians—Sizemore was a 30-30 man in 2008 but suffered a rash of injuries that seriously hampered his 2009 season. If he slides at all in your draft, jump on him because he’s a stud. He will reward you with a strong 2010 season.

Jose Guillen, Royals—Guillen will become Kansas City’s full time DH this season, which will help to keep him healthy without the everyday wear and tear in the outfield. The hamstring injury looks to be fine so don’t shy away from him.

Adam Jones and Nolan Reimold, Orioles—Jones and Reimold are real up-and-comers and their respective injuries shouldn’t slow them down. Draft both with confidence.

Nyjer Morgan, Nationals—Morgan won’t be too affected by his wrist injury. Since his game is based on his legs, the wrist will be little more than an annoyance in 2010, even though it has been proclaimed to be at 100%. He’s a great source of steals and runs, but little else past a decent average.

Carlos Pena, Rays—Pena missed last September because of two broken fingers. He was healthy enough to take batting practice in the Dominican Republic in January, so draft with confidence and expect more of his usual ‘swing hard in case you hit it’ routine.

Ryan Sweeney, Athletics—Sweeney might finally be ready to show what he’s got. His 2009 was marred by sore knees, but he finished strong, posting a .360 average with 19 runs and 16 RBI in September. Despite playing in a very crowded Oakland outfield, he will likely approach 500 AB. Buy Sweeney late in your draft and see what he can do for your squad.

High Risk, High Reward

Troy Glaus, Braves—Atlanta landed a new first baseman in Glaus and hope he can regain his old form. Unfortunately, he is an injury waiting to happen. Shoulder problems caused him to miss most of 2009. If he can put up 500 AB, he’ll reward you with 25+ homers and 80+ RBI, but make sure you have an adequate backup on your bench.

Josh Hamilton, Rangers—Hamilton has all the tools (see his 2008 All-Star Game display of power) to be a superstar in baseball, but he just can’t stay healthy. His 2009 season was slowed by a back injury and he is always a hangnail away from the disabled list. Don’t spend too much on him on draft day, but he is capable of rewarding his owner with some huge numbers.

Matt LaPorta, Indians—LaPorta is expected to be Cleveland’s starting first baseman, but toe and hip injuries may slow the beginning of the season. He may not be ready to go in April, but he’ll be there and will recover to have a good season. If he gets off to a slow start, offer to take him off his owner’s hands and reap the benefits. An added bonus is that he qualifies at OF from his 2009 play.

Mike Lowell, Red Sox—Lowell has always been good with the lumber, he’s just been awfully bad at staying away from the injury bug. The thumb injury that limited him to 445 AB in 2009 will likely reduce his 2010 season as well. If/when he gets healthy, look for his usual numbers to resume, but just temper your expectations as to how many AB he’ll get this season.

Vernon Wells, Blue Jays—A wrist injury slowed him during the 2009 season, despite going up to bat 630 times last year. He batted poorly with little power, all of which can be attributed to his ailing wrist. Can he recover the magic that led him to average 29 HR per season from 2003-2006? He can if he is over the injury and he can stay healthy or the whole season. Two big “ifs”, but he’ll be a great bargain if he does.

Justin Morneau, Twins—Morneau suffered wrist and back injuries that ended his 2009 season early. He is still young enough to come back as a fantasy force, but be ready to dump him if the power doesn’t seem to materialize in April. If the wrist isn’t healthy, he could be in for a long season, like Wells was last year.

Albert Pujols, Cardinals—Pujols’ elbow woes aren’t going away. The injury popped up during the winter before the 2009 season and Phat Albert did just fine. There is concern that he needs elbow ligament replacement surgery and he will always be a risk until he finally goes under the knife. He will miss half a season after surgery, so you hope he’s not on your team when he finally gets the procedure done. But he’s well worth the risk until it finally happens.

Jose Reyes, Mets—Reyes is back and ready to run for the Mets, but a guy who relies on speed better have healthy legs and he is recovering from that problem. He still has a little pop in his bat, but his days as a 60+ steal guy are probably over.

Alfonso Soriano, Cubs—Soriano is the definition of high risk, high return. He has a reputation of being a power-speed guy who leads you to a fantasy championship. But he also has a reputation as a major injury risk. He will likely command a high draft pick to acquire him, and could give you a heck of a season. Or he could give you squat. I’d let someone else take the risk while settling on a safer bet with a high round pick.

Rickie Weeks, Brewers—Weeks may not fit into the high risk category because his reputation is becoming one of a bust and a full time DL’er, so he probably won’t cost you a bunch on draft day. But if he ever figures it out, he could finally put all that potential together into a huge season. His wrist is supposedly better, but using anything more than a mid-to-late round pick on him is a risk to your team.

Tread Carefully

Carlos Beltran, Mets—Beltran will miss at least the first month of the season while recovering from knee surgery. He is unhappy with the Mets right now and it wouldn’t be surprising if he doesn’t give his all on the field this season when he is out there. This guy would fall into the “Not With A Ten Foot Pole” category if he didn’t have so much talent.

Coco Crisp, Athletics—Oakland acquired Crisp with the intention of getting a solid leadoff hitter. He had surgery on both shoulders last summer and should be healthy, but is in a very crowded outfield. He probably won’t post 400 AB, but will likely get more than 20 steals and should be available late in your draft.

Mark DeRosa, Giants—DeRosa is the poster boy for, “let someone else waste their draft pick him”. His wrist injury isn’t fully healed yet, he’ll be 35 before the season begins and his position is uncertain with the Giants. Yes he qualifies at 3B and OF (and 1B in some leagues), but he’s not worth the risk.

Raul Ibanez, Phillies—Did Ibanez benefit from going to a hitters park in 2009? How else to explain how a 37-year old has a career high in home runs (unless you think he visited Barry Bonds’ chemist)? Even though he had surgery to repair his sports hernia, he is still unlikely to have the same power surge he enjoyed in 2009.

Brandon Inge, Tigers—Inge will continue as Detroit’s starting third baseman, but his power numbers don’t have a lot of punch to them without much of a batting average or on base percentage to back them up. If your league doesn’t use these averages, then Inge is a decent option, but stay away in all roto formats.

Aramis Ramirez, Cubs—Ramirez should be over his shoulder injury in 2010, but he seems to be getting past his prime. He’s still going to put up nice numbers as the Cubs third baseman, but the days of 30 homers and 100 RBI seem to be long gone.

Marco Scutaro, Red Sox—Boston’s newest answer to their glaring hole at shortstop is Scutaro. He finished 2009 with a plantar fascia injury, the kind of thing that recurs often. Even if he is over the heel injury, he has never produced at a high enough level to make one think that 2009 was anything but a mirage. To have career highs in batting average, slugging percentage, hits, runs, homers and steals is unusual and would be a surprise to see him come anywhere close to those numbers again.

Not With A Ten Foot Pole

Ronny Cedeno, Pirates—Cedeno should be okay with the hamstring, but is this the guy you really want at shortstop? The Pirates may be foolish enough to start him, but hopefully you are not. He has decent numbers and makes a good backup for an elite performer, but don’t count on much more than ten homers and a .250 average.

Eric Chavez, Athletics—The best of Oakland’s Eric Chavez’ career is behind him. He’s now relegated to the bad side of a first base platoon and an occasional DH gig. His back looks good for 2010, but don’t expect anything of quality from this once formidable hitter.

Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays—Everyone knows that children should not play with fireworks, but someone forgot to let Encarnacion know that before he almost blew his face off. The injuries incurred from the poor judgment on New Year’s will not have any lingering effects, but the wrist injury likely will. He’ll be Toronto’s starting 3B, but will find an outage in his power supply as these wrist injuries often do. Let someone else waste their auction dollars here.

Ken Griffey, Jr., Marines—Griffey made a reunion tour with Seattle last year with the intent of playing right field. But the 40-year old couldn’t handle the rigors and found himself locked into the DH role, where he will be again this season. The knee injury seems to be okay, but don’t look for much other than a dozen homers and maybe 50 RBI. Otherwise, he’ll be a liability to his Major League team and your fantasy team.

Brendan Ryan, Cardinals—Ryan is the same as Ronny Cedeno, except he has less pop and a better batting average. He’s not worth your while, even when his wrist finally heals.

Scott Sizemore, Tigers—It looks like Sizemore is over the broken ankle he sustained in the Arizona Fall League and that he’ll be installed as Detroit’s starting second baseman. But don’t get caught up in the hype. He’s being thrown into a sink-or-swim situation and most players of his age and ability sink, even the ones not coming off a serious ankle injury. Stay away.

Jack Wilson, Mariners—Griffey’s teammate Wilson is not someone you draft for his bat. He’s a capable fantasy backup, but not much more than that, even with a healthy heel.

Projections – First Base, Teixeira

Posted on March 8, 2009 by Rick Milleman

Albert Pujols is the man on the top tier. Don't overpay for him in your auction.

As we continue around the infield, we will take a look at first base.

The Big Magilla is Albert Pujols. He will be head and shoulders better than anyone else who qualifies at the position and occupies the entire first tier by himself. If you are in a draft league, he is worthy of the first pick (regardless how your league values steals). If you are in an auction league, you will want to get him as a value and not overpay for him.

If you can’t land Phat Albert, the second tier consists of about seven guys who are mostly interchangeable: Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Morneau, Prince Fielder, Lance Berkman, Kevin Youkilis and Ryan Howard. All of these guys are power hitters who aren’t likely to help you with SBs.

If you miss out on the second tier, you can do well with the guys sitting in the third tier, but they all have warts: Adrian Gonzalez (crummy park, offense), Joey Votto (young and rather unpredictable), Carlos Pena (will you get the guy who struggled in the first half of 2008 or the guy who hit well in the second half?), James Loney (crummy park), Garrett Atkins (trade talk rumors, could be grabbed as a 3B), Derrek Lee (age), Adam Dunn (big swing, often misses), Casey Kotchman (can he fulfill his potential?) and Chris Davis (see Votto). Loney. Votto, and Kotchman are the guys I think who will take the next step in their advancement to becoming legitimate fantasy forces while Lee is becoming a victim of his age and will slowly watch his skills erode.

Mark Teixeria will get lots of RBi opportunities, but will hit fewer HR's this year than in years past.

The real question in this group is Teixeira. Tex’s projected HR total looks a little low at 23 when he has averaged 35 for each of the last five seasons. Though I don’t doubt Tex’s power potential, I do question his desire and opportunities in 2009. He’s got a guaranteed contract for the next 8 years, so he doesn’t have to push himself. He’s never played home games this far north since high school and the weather will slow him in the first six weeks of the season. Yankee Stadium (new stadium has same dimensions as old) is tougher on right-handed hitters slowing his HR rate when he hits from the right side of the plate. Going to the A.L. East will provide tougher pitchers for him every night than he was used to in the A.L West or N.L. East. Yankees fans have a reputation of being tough on players not living up to their expectations and he’s used to very laid back crowds in Texas, Atlanta and Los Angeles. Since Alex Rodriguez is hurt, Yankees fans will have to find another hitter to take their venom and Teixeira could be their victim of choice. By themselves, none of these reasons are worthy of projecting Tex any less than 30 HR’s for the season. But collectively, it makes me wonder if he’ll go deep as much in 2009 as he has in the past. Teixeira will still have a good batting average and drive in runs, but don’t look for a lot of bombs in 2009.

The depth is there for your fantasy team, but you have to figure out what you want and get him at the right time. The tough part is figuring out when to grab one and when to hold back, filling other positions. You DON’T want to be left holding an empty first base bag when all the second tier guys are gone. You don’t have to get Pujols, but the second tier guys are sure things while the third tier guys are a little sketchy in what they will give you.