Author Archives: Mike MacGregor

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Draft Buddy Update and Optional Projection Pal Available

Use Projection Pal to add alternate sets of projections to your copy of Draft Buddy. Download a copy of Pal pre-loaded with projections from draftbuddy.com.

Use Projection Pal to add alternate sets of projections to your copy of Draft Buddy. Download a copy of Pal pre-loaded with projections from draftbuddy.com.

Today there is a full projections, depth chart and ADP update available for the fantasy football version of Draft Buddy, our custom cheatsheet and draft tracking software.

If you want to mark these on your calendar, the remaining regularly scheduled updates are July 9, 16, 23, 30, August 6, 13, 20, September 3 and 8. Generally, once a week on Thursdays so Draft Buddy is up to date for you prior to the weekend’s prime drafting times.

The above noted updates are projections from FF Today, included in Draft Buddy by default. Today I also uploaded a copy of Projection Pal to our member download page including the official DraftBuddy.com projections (updated today), so you can add them to your copy of Draft Buddy as a second set of projections. To add them and make them the primary projections for your cheatsheets, follow these steps:

  • Download Projection Pal, the one that includes the Draft Buddy projections, and open it in Excel.
  • Open your copy of Draft Buddy in Excel.
  • On the setup tab in Pal, check that the filename matches the filename for your copy of Draft Buddy. It should unless you changed it. Everyone should be using version 1.2!
  • In Pal, go to the QB Raw tab, press the Copy to Compiler button, and wait for Pal to copy over the projections to Buddy. Repeat for each of the RB Raw, WR Raw and TE Raw tabs.
  • In Buddy, go to the options tab and change the default allocation key to 100% Site B.
  • Go to the action tab and click Compile Cheatsheets.

Use the Average Projections / Allocations Keys box to change the percentage of each set of projections reflected in the cheatsheets, if desired.

Use the Average Projections / Allocations Keys box to change the percentage of each set of projections reflected in the cheatsheets, if desired.

Now the cheatsheets reflect the new set of projections. You can use the Average Projections / Allocations Keys box to change the percentage of each set of projections reflected in the cheatsheets, if desired. Just remember each time you change anything on rules, scoring, options, or projections (anything that would cause the cheatsheets to change), then you need to click Compile Cheatsheets again to see the impact of that change.

Since we don’t have projections for kickers, defense or IDP, then you may wish to simply stick with projections from FF Today for each of those. You can change the default allocation key in Draft Buddy by position. To do that, go to each of the position tabs (QB, RB, etc.) and find the two “+” signs near the top of each tab. Click the first plus sign to open up some hidden columns. You’ll notice at the top the allocation key for the tab, which you can change by inputting a different number (from the options tab box), or you can change the key by player in the yellow highlighted column.

Fire away in the comments if you have any questions. Thanks!

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Initial 2015 Fantasy Football Projections Commentary, NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles QB Sam Bradford is set up for the best season of his career. That is, if he can stay healthy, something he had trouble with playing for the St. Louis Rams.

Philadelphia Eagles QB Sam Bradford is set up for the best season of his career. That is, if he can stay healthy, something he had trouble with playing for the St. Louis Rams.

Our initial 2015 fantasy football projections were released June 1. Even better, Draft Buddy is now available!

To accompany the initial projections, as we continue to review, research, analyze the projections, and create cheatsheet rankings, we provide the following commentary by division to give some insight into why we have players projected the way we do at this time.

Dallas Cowboys

  • Despite attempting 100 fewer passes in 2014 compared to 2013, Tony Romo increased his completion percentage by 6%, nearly matched his yardage, tossed three more touchdowns and one less interception. Less is more! Problem is they lost that nearly 450-touch guy, DeMarco something. We’re looking at projections much more in line with 2013.
  • Darren McFadden? Joseph Randle? A player to be named later? Pick your poison, but we do think it is McFadden to the extent he stays healthy. Yep, a pretty big IF there, but a higher profile veteran with the Arkansas connection is likely to be given the primo opportunity. The offensive line will provide a solid level of fantasy success if one does emerge as earning the bulk of the carries, either for the season or for a span of weeks in-season.
  • Romo’s pass attempts are up but numbers are similar for the receivers. In fact, the rush-pass mix is not that different from last season, with more plays overall. Think we need to ratchet down the runners a little, perhaps bump of Terrance Williams. Dez Bryant makes us slightly nervous with the contract talk impasse and talk of a holdout, but for now, have to project him as the stud he is.

New York Giants

  • A lot of talk about Eli Manning being more comfortable in the second year of Ben McAdoo’s offense and how he is going to light it up. I’m buying it. Odell Beckham Jr. from Week 1 and adding Shane Vereen helps quite a bit, too, even with Victor Cruz sidelined.
  • When he played, Rashad Jennings was decent for fantasy last season in his first season with the Giants. A sub-4.0 yards per carry and an injury history doesn’t put fantasy owners at ease he is long for the job though. Good thing he doesn’t have much competition for carries, but the Giants should use Vereen a fair bit, who likely feels he was underused in New England.
  • Beckham a sell high or setting up to be a perennial Top 5 WR? His hamstrings appear they will dictate the best answer. Our initial projections have him 7th at WR, 3-4 spots below his current ADP.
  • More was expected of Rueben Randle to this point of his career, and last year was a prime opportunity for him with Beckham out until Week 5, and Cruz out after Week 6. He disappointed. Continuing good opportunity for him starting this season. I’d draft him as a late pick with upside, but not holding out a ton of hope.

Philadelphia Eagles

  • Who is going to quarterback this crew? Its Sam Bradford until we are certain he can’t. And if Bradford can stay in for 16 games, he’s in line for the best season of his career. Mark Sanchez awaits in the wings.
  • 449 touches for DeMarco Murray last season, excluding the playoffs, he can still get a heavy workload in this offense, but not that crazy. Not with Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles needing to get their touches. But that is okay, as last season was Murray’s first playing 16 games. We have him at 300 carries, 25 receptions, still worthy of a high pick.
  • We have Mathews at half the carries of Murray, and Sproles less than half of that, but Sproles dominates the pass targets. All three get drafted but Mathews and Sproles only become reliable fantasy starters if Murray misses time, or the Eagles have a game where they run roughshod over their opponent.
  • By all accounts Jordan Matthews lived up to his rookie draft hype last year with a solid season, but whether he can improve on those numbers will be challenged by the new rookie addition, Nelson Agholor. While I may pass on drafting Matthews, I have a hard time projecting him behind Agholor until we see what positions Chip Kelly settles on for each come training camp.
  • We have modest improvements for Zach Ertz in this third season. There is still upside available there if he can become a red zone threat.

Washington Redskins

  • In a surprising bit of news, head coach Jay Gruden had numerous good things to say about Robert Griffin III. It is still somewhat baffling how fast RG3 fell from rookie sensation to subpar fantasy asset. Injury and work ethic were the problems. Injury must be over by now. Work ethic? Maybe he’s getting it, keeping a lower profile, and maybe it is time to consider buying low.
  • Alfred Morris keeps on chugging along. A classic underrated RB in fantasy circles because of his lack of catches, so short of a monster 1,600-12 line (which he surpassed in 2012), he won’t earn a 1st round grade, but don’t turn your nose up at 1,100-8 in the thick of the RBBC era. Rookie Matt Jones backs him up, but not expecting Jones to unseat Morris.
  • Griffin has good receivers. Makes you think more about RG3 being a value pick, doesn’t it? I’ve traditionally considered DeSean Jackon an every other year player, but he has now strung together two consecutive good seasons. Pierre Garcon needs more targets, especially with the 11.1 yards per catch he had last season.
  • A better third receiver and/or a healthy Jordan Reed would go a long way to helping this offense. Now I’ve come full circle. RG3 has good starting receivers, but not enough pass catching skill around him to be better than a bye week filler, unless he really ramps up the rushing yards again. Not sure the Redskins will push for that.

Initial 2015 Projections Release and Commentary Series

Projections | AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West

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Initial 2015 Fantasy Football Projections Commentary, AFC East

Bills, Dolphins, Jets and Patriots

Miami Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill steadily improved three straight seasons and landed in the top 10 in fantasy points at QB in 2014. Can he continue the trend?

Miami Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill steadily improved three straight seasons and landed in the top 10 in fantasy points at QB in 2014. Can he continue the trend?

Our initial 2015 fantasy football projections were released June 1. Even better, Draft Buddy is now available!

To accompany the initial projections, as we continue to review, research, analyze the projections, and create cheatsheet rankings, we provide the following commentary by division to give some insight into why we have players projected the way we do at this time.

Buffalo Bills

  • Matt Cassel is so average to below average, but we just don’t see E.J. Manuel being good enough to take the job away from him, unless it is due to injury. Rex Ryan is setting high expectations early in Buffalo, so backing the veteran is the smart move.
  • LeSean McCoy’s points per game were the lowest of his career in 2014 since his rookie season. He had his second most rushing attempts at 312 (vs. 314 in 2013), but he was far less effective than usual with them, and his targets dropped by about 30 off his norm. Here is hoping the Bills ratchet up his role in the passing game. We’ve got 300 carries, 70 targets. Tough to pull his yards per carry higher than 4.2 but that will clearly make a huge difference how much fantasy bang for you buck you get. At any rate, the coaching staff appears very likely to marginalize the remaining backs on the roster. McCoy or bust.
  • Sammy Watkins might hit 1,000 yards, who knows what Percy Harvin is going to bring to the table and Robert Woods appears settled as a ho-hum third receiver. As long as the defense performs as Ryan would like, no reason for the passing game to open it up even if they were capable with Cassel or Manuel at the helm. As an aside, if Watkins doesn’t crack 1,000 with some vigor then dynasty owners who picked him last season are going to sour on him.
  • The last time the Bills had an exceptionally fantasy relevant tight end? I don’t know, Jay Riemersma? Pete Metzelaars? Maybe best to just go with never, but they aggressively signed Charles Clay which is weird. I’m intrigued and hopeful, but not overly optimistic.

Miami Dolphins

  • Ryan Tannehill steadily improved three straight seasons to the point he completed over 66% of his passes and landed in the top 10 in fantasy points at QB last season. And now departed Mike Wallace probably wasn’t the easiest WR to play with. We see the upward trend continuing for Tanny, and who doesn’t love a projection with their QB throwing 600 passes?
  • Lamar Miller doesn’t wow us but he gets the job done, and doesn’t seem to have an immediate threat to his primary rushing role from rookie Jay Ajayi. Not many backs get this percentage of the workload, and by many accounts the team is improved, especially on defense. There is room for upside in these numbers.
  • The Dolphins can’t afford a sophomore slump from Jarvis Landry. There is dissenting opinion on how good Kenny Stills really is, coming from the Saints and perhaps being a product of the system and QB Drew Brees. I still thought he looked pretty good. Rookie DeVante Parker is currently out due to foot surgery. Jordan Cameron hasn’t been a pillar of health. While we believe the receiving corps is improved overall, there is definitely some risk here.

New England Patriots

  • How many games will Tom Brady ultimately be suspended? We have to assume four at this point pending the outcome of the appeal, so roughly a 25% decline across the board is factored into his projections.
  • As good as LeGarette Blount has looked at times (mostly versus the Indianapolis Colts), I have a hard time believing Bill Belichick is going to give him enough carries to be a reliable fantasy starter week in and week out. Certainly much harder to support the guys behind him on the depth chart though. Oh, and Blount misses Week 1.
  • Each of the main receivers have enough of an NFL career to reference, and not much changing around them, to anticipate major changes in their output. Rob Gronkowski is the lead dog. Julian Edelman the underneath high catch, low TD guy. Dave opened my eyes Brandon LaFell was more effective last season than I thought. Danny Amendola never saw the inside of a trainer’s room he didn’t like.

New York Jets

  • There should be some good battles between the Jets and Bills this season as they somewhat mirror one another right now. Strong defense, improved at the offensive skill positions, and haven’t a clue what they are going to get from their quarterback. In the Jets case, looks like the veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick sits and Geno Smith gets another chance to make a good impression.
  • We currently have Fitzpatrick projected like the more regular starter. It is anybody’s guess how long the leash will be on Smith, assuming he starts Week 1. Maybe best to split the attempts about 50-50 for the season at this point, but certainly, no recommendation to draft either one.
  • It would be nice to see the old Stevan Ridley from 2012 who scored 12 touchdowns, but it doesn’t seem in the cards. The Chris Johnson experiment is one and done, and likely his career. Chris Ivory is the probable starter. He was two shy of 200 carries last season, the first 16-game season of his NFL career. Not a confident projection but tough to allocate more carries elsewhere given Ivory’s projected role.
  • Can Brandon Marshall motivate Geno Smith to force feed him the ball like Jay Cutler? Maybe. That could get him to 1,000 yards but a painfully low yards per catch, and touchdowns will be tough to come by. If its bad for Marshall, its likely worse for Eric Decker, even though he’s had a year with Smith. Devin Smith is a burner. Jace Amaro showed some promise but there is such a logjam at tight end after the top guys, no need to reach for him.
  • Overall, not a bad group of skill players, but Marshall is on the downside, a decent committee but no world beaters at running back, and we don’t think Smith or Fitzpatrick are capable of elevating these guys for a prolonged period.

Initial 2015 Projections Release and Commentary Series

Projections | AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West