Comparing Player Rankings to Average Draft Position

DeMarco Murray

Here is DeMarco Murray running through a huge hole against his current team, the Tennessee Titans, two seasons ago. Can he regain that 2014 form? We have him ranked much higher than his ADP.

We posted our initial fantasy football player rankings last week and one of the first things I wanted to do after the dust settled is compare them to average draft position data. This way I can see which players stick out as being ranked higher or lower than the consensus fantasy football community. These players likely require a little more analysis to determine if I can justify the difference.

After fussing with some database queries to convert ADP pick data to a position ranking, here are the results. Note the rankings are before the latest news on Le’Veon Bell that he could face a 4-game suspension for missing a mandatory drug test (which is equivalent to a failed test). Oh Le’Veon, you darn fool.

We will start with the tables, identify the players with the biggest discrepancies, and then come back later to add some commentary on those players as to why they are ranked where they are.

QB

+-------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Player                  | Tier | myRank | adpRank | Dif  |
+-------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Andrew Luck, IND        |    1 |      1 | QB3     | +2   |
| Drew Brees, NO          |    1 |      2 | QB6     | +4   |
| Aaron Rodgers, GB       |    1 |      3 | QB2     | -1   |
| Russell Wilson, SEA     |    1 |      4 | QB4     |  0   |
| Cam Newton, CAR         |    1 |      5 | QB1     | -4   |
| Ben Roethlisberger, PIT |    2 |      6 | QB5     | -1   |
| Blake Bortles, JAC      |    2 |      7 | QB9     | +2   |
| Philip Rivers, SD       |    2 |      8 | QB11    | +3   |
| Tom Brady, NE           |    2 |      9 | QB7     | -2   |
| Eli Manning, NYG        |    3 |     10 | QB10    |  0   |
| Kirk Cousins, WAS       |    3 |     11 | QB14    | +3   |
| Carson Palmer, ARI      |    3 |     12 | QB8     | -4   |
| Ryan Tannehill, MIA     |    3 |     13 | QB21    | +8   |
| Matthew Stafford, DET   |    3 |     14 | QB18    | +4   |
| Jameis Winston, TB      |    4 |     15 | QB17    | +2   |
| Derek Carr, OAK         |    4 |     16 | QB12    | -4   |
| Andy Dalton, CIN        |    4 |     17 | QB15    | -2   |
| Matt Ryan, ATL          |    4 |     18 | QB16    | -2   |
| Jay Cutler, CHI         |    4 |     19 | QB23    | +4   |
| Tony Romo, DAL          |    4 |     20 | QB13    | -7   |
| Marcus Mariota, TEN     |    4 |     21 | QB20    | -1   |
| Tyrod Taylor, BUF       |    4 |     22 | QB19    | -3   |
| Brock Osweiler, HOU     |    5 |     24 | QB22    | -2   |
| Joe Flacco, BAL         |    5 |     26 | QB24    | -2   |
+-------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+

Ranked Higher

Ryan Tannehill

Ranked Lower

Tony Romo

RB

+-----------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Player                | Tier | myRank | adpRank | Dif  |
+-----------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Le'Veon Bell, PIT     |    1 |      1 | RB1     |  0   |
| Todd Gurley, LA       |    1 |      2 | RB2     |  0   |
| Adrian Peterson, MIN  |    2 |      3 | RB4     | +1   |
| Jamaal Charles, KC    |    2 |      4 | RB7     | +3   |
| David Johnson, ARI    |    2 |      5 | RB3     | -2   |
| Matt Forte, NYJ       |    2 |      6 | RB13    | +7   |
| DeMarco Murray, TEN   |    3 |      7 | RB20    | +13  |
| C.J. Anderson, DEN    |    3 |      8 | RB16    | +8   |
| Lamar Miller, HOU     |    3 |      9 | RB6     | -3   |
| Devonta Freeman, ATL  |    3 |     10 | RB8     | -2   |
| Danny Woodhead, SD    |    3 |     11 | RB21    | +10  |
| Eddie Lacy, GB        |    4 |     12 | RB9     | -3   |
| Ezekiel Elliott, DAL  |    4 |     13 | RB5     | -8   |
| Doug Martin, TB       |    4 |     14 | RB11    | -3   |
| LeSean McCoy, BUF     |    4 |     15 | RB12    | -3   |
| Jay Ajayi, MIA        |    4 |     16 | RB24    | +8   |
| Jonathan Stewart, CAR |    4 |     17 | RB27    | +10  |
| Mark Ingram, NO       |    5 |     18 | RB10    | -8   |
| Carlos Hyde, SF       |    5 |     19 | RB17    | -2   |
| Thomas Rawls, SEA     |    5 |     20 | RB14    | -6   |
| Melvin Gordon, SD     |    5 |     21 | RB32    | +11  |
| Ameer Abdullah, DET   |    5 |     22 | RB29    | +7   |
| Dion Lewis, NE        |    5 |     23 | RB15    | -8   |
| Frank Gore, IND       |    5 |     24 | RB30    | +6   |
| T.J. Yeldon, JAC      |    5 |     25 | RB37    | +12  |
| Jeremy Hill, CIN      |    6 |     26 | RB28    | +2   |
| Ryan Mathews, PHI     |    6 |     27 | RB23    | -4   |
| Rashad Jennings, NYG  |    6 |     28 | RB36    | +8   |
| Matt Jones, WAS       |    6 |     29 | RB22    | -7   |
| Justin Forsett, BAL   |    6 |     30 | RB31    | +1   |
| Latavius Murray, OAK  |    6 |     31 | RB18    | -13  |
| Giovani Bernard, CIN  |    6 |     32 | RB26    | -6   |
+-----------------------+------+--------+---------+------+

Ranked Higher

DeMarco Murray

T.J. Yeldon

Melvin Gordon

Danny Woodhead

Jonathan Stewart

Ranked Lower

Latavius Murray

Ezekiel Elliott

WR

+------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Player                 | Tier | myRank | adpRank | Dif  |
+------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Antonio Brown, PIT     |    1 |      1 | WR1     |  0   |
| Julio Jones, ATL       |    1 |      2 | WR2     |  0   |
| Odell Beckham Jr., NYG |    1 |      3 | WR3     |  0   |
| A.J. Green, CIN        |    1 |      4 | WR5     | +1   |
| DeAndre Hopkins, HOU   |    2 |      5 | WR4     | -1   |
| Allen Robinson, JAC    |    2 |      6 | WR8     | +2   |
| Dez Bryant, DAL        |    2 |      7 | WR6     | -1   |
| Mike Evans, TB         |    2 |      8 | WR11    | +3   |
| T.Y. Hilton, IND       |    2 |      9 | WR17    | +8   |
| Amari Cooper, OAK      |    3 |     10 | WR12    | +2   |
| Jordy Nelson, GB       |    3 |     11 | WR7     | -4   |
| Brandon Marshall, NYJ  |    3 |     12 | WR13    | +1   |
| Demaryius Thomas, DEN  |    3 |     13 | WR16    | +3   |
| Larry Fitzgerald, ARI  |    3 |     14 | WR28    | +14  |
| Alshon Jeffery, CHI    |    3 |     15 | WR10    | -5   |
| Jarvis Landry, MIA     |    3 |     16 | WR15    | -1   |
| Brandin Cooks, NO      |    4 |     17 | WR14    | -3   |
| Keenan Allen, SD       |    4 |     18 | WR9     | -9   |
| Golden Tate, DET       |    4 |     19 | WR22    | +3   |
| Jeremy Maclin, KC      |    4 |     20 | WR23    | +3   |
| Doug Baldwin, SEA      |    4 |     21 | WR24    | +3   |
| Kelvin Benjamin, CAR   |    4 |     22 | WR20    | -2   |
| Julian Edelman, NE     |    4 |     23 | WR18    | -5   |
| Eric Decker, NYJ       |    4 |     24 | WR31    | +7   |
| Randall Cobb, GB       |    5 |     25 | WR19    | -6   |
| Allen Hurns, JAC       |    5 |     26 | WR26    |  0   |
| DeSean Jackson, WAS    |    5 |     27 | WR37    | +10  |
| Sammy Watkins, BUF     |    5 |     28 | WR21    | -7   |
| Markus Wheaton, PIT    |    5 |     29 | WR40    | +11  |
| Jordan Matthews, PHI   |    5 |     30 | WR27    | -3   |
| Donte Moncrief, IND    |    5 |     31 | WR29    | -2   |
| John Brown, ARI        |    5 |     32 | WR33    | +1   |
+------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+

Ranked Higher

Larry Fitzgerald

Markus Wheaton

DeSean Jackson

T.Y. Hilton

Ranked Lower

Keenan Allen

Sammy Watkins

TE

+-----------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Player                      | Tier | myRank | adpRank | Dif  |
+-----------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Rob Gronkowski, NE          |    1 |      1 | TE1     |  0   |
| Greg Olsen, CAR             |    2 |      2 | TE3     | +1   |
| Travis Kelce, KC            |    2 |      3 | TE6     | +3   |
| Coby Fleener, NO            |    2 |      4 | TE7     | +3   |
| Jordan Reed, WAS            |    2 |      5 | TE2     | -3   |
| Delanie Walker, TEN         |    3 |      6 | TE4     | -2   |
| Julius Thomas, JAC          |    3 |      7 | TE9     | +2   |
| Tyler Eifert, CIN           |    3 |      8 | TE5     | -3   |
| Zach Ertz, PHI              |    3 |      9 | TE12    | +3   |
| Gary Barnidge, CLE          |    3 |     10 | TE8     | -2   |
| Jimmy Graham, SEA           |    3 |     11 | TE11    |  0   |
| Dwayne Allen, IND           |    4 |     12 | TE15    | +3   |
| Eric Ebron, DET             |    4 |     13 | TE18    | +5   |
| Antonio Gates, SD           |    4 |     15 | TE14    | -1   |
| Martellus Bennett, NE       |    4 |     16 | TE13    | -3   |
| Ladarius Green, PIT         |    4 |     17 | TE10    | -7   |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB |    4 |     18 | TE19    | +1   |
| Jason Witten, DAL           |    4 |     19 | TE20    | +1   |
| Jordan Cameron, MIA         |    4 |     20 | TE17    | -3   |
| Zach Miller, CHI            |    5 |     24 | TE16    | -8   |
+-----------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+

Ranked Higher

Eric Ebron

Ranked Lower

Zach Miller

Ladarius Green

Initial 2016 Fantasy Football Redraft Rankings and Projections

Adrian Peterson

Where do we rank Minnesota Vikings RB Adrian Peterson? Spoiler: Tier 2, RB3. Check out the complete QB, RB, WR and TE redraft player projections and cheatsheet rankings.

Last week you got an appetizer with our preliminary ranking tiers for each of quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end positions. Today is the release of our initial detailed player projections and rankings for the 2016 season.

Fantasy football season is underway. You know, the main drafting season entertaining the vast majority of fantasy footballers worldwide, not the 365-days on the calendar version a smaller hard core group of us are card carrying members of (here!). So given that, high time we published our initial projections and rankings for redraft leagues.

I am currently in Round 12 of the Scott Fish Bowl, better known as SFB#480 on Twitter. The draft is going okay, but I don’t feel it is stellar. Probably not enough mock drafting practice heading in resulting in numerous players I hoped to get a round later not falling, or just a really tough group of competitors.

At any rate, now I feel I have base rankings to start from, and between now and early September these rankings will be scrutinized and adjusted for training camp and preseason news, plus additional research and analysis of players, situations and simply new thoughts on players and player value. That is the way it goes with prognosticating fantasy football. These are fluid documents.

From browsing around the website, most everything is up to date now to get us fully into 2016 draft prep, but since the new design of the website implemented before baseball season there are still a number of features that could look better and be more user friendly. The plan is to get tackling those starting next week too.

Last but certainly not least, if you haven’t got Draft Buddy yet, then get on it. It is updated with projections from FF Today and ready to help you in all of your upcoming drafts. We will have a method of pulling our DraftBuddy.com projections into Draft Buddy soon.

Thanks for your time. Would love to hear some feedback on the rankings and projections. Feel free to comment below.

Preliminary 2016 Tight End Redraft Ranking Tiers

Rob Gronkowski

Some small red flags and up-and-coming talent at the position might be closing the gap between Rob Gronkowski and the field, but he still stands alone in Tier 1 at TE for now.

Lets close out the week with preliminary redraft tight end tiers for the 2016 fantasy football season. This concludes our collection of offensive skill position tiers after posting quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers the prior three days.

Note again the players are only tiered, not ranked within their groups, so focus on the tiers as opposed to where a player is situated relative to other players in their own tier.

We will publish detailed player projections, rankings and commentary plus updates over the next two plus months leading up to the start of the NFL regular season. Feel free to post your comments below, or on Facebook or Twitter.

Tier 1

Rob Gronkowski

Tier 2

Coby Fleener
Greg Olsen
Jordan Reed
Travis Kelce

Tier 3

Delanie Walker
Gary Barnidge
Jimmy Graham
Julius Thomas
Tyler Eifert
Zach Ertz

Tier 4

Antonio Gates
Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Benjamin Watson
Dwayne Allen
Eric Ebron
Jason Witten
Jordan Cameron
Ladarius Green
Martellus Bennett

Tier 5

Charles Clay
Clive Walford
Jacob Tamme
Kyle Rudolph
Richard Rodgers
Vance McDonald
Will Tye
Zach Miller

Tier 6

Cameron Brate
Darren Fells
Jace Amaro
Jeff Heuerman
Lance Kendricks
Ryan Griffin
Tyler Kroft